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Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Patterns
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.

And as soon as Gavin posts the low decides to slide towards the Channel this may follow another bitter easterly,sorry Gavin.

ECM1-168.GIF?25-0

But if that slides look at the warmer air we could tap into in the far East of Europe!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

But if that slides look at the warmer air we could tap into in the far East of Europe!

? Looks cold to me..

ECM0-168.GIF?25-0

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Certainly less cold from ECM tonight

Easter Monday

ECM0-168.GIF?25-0

ECM1-168.GIF?25-0

Very slightly less cold in the south, but snow for many yet again, particularly the places that got it last time. Feel for you Gavin!

Edited by rjbw
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Most models continue with the cold theme through this week and Easter Weekend. The UKMO will be keeping a close watch on any developing North Atlantic depression and where, in the UK, it could affect. The bank holiday is one of the most important weekends economically, so any warnings would need to be as early as possible. At this stage through i would suspect low confidence of widespread snowfall. Key area of interest, is Cornwall and Devon - particularly, Dartmoor.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I don't know what ECM gavin is looking at but winds look to remain SE/E'ly. 850's aren't the be all and end all. All the ECM run does is introduce more moisture/cloud which will make it FEEL colder than if the sun was out.

It can't feel any colder than it does at the moment, the sun is irrelevant when it's 1C and there's a 25 mph wind blowing from the east!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I think we need to treat this run with a little scepticism since it differs from the rest of the output by 120h, maybe an overly progressive run like the GFS threw out the other day though not quite so extreme.

The London ensembles will tell us more later.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ECM op following a broadly similar route to the 00z run. assuming it is again warm against the ens in fi, another repeat performance in the morning may well offer some hope to those wanting a less freezing outlook. just as a consistent op can flag up potential cold without ens support, so it can also show the route out of the freezer if it offers a consistent solution.

EDIT: for those wanting the cold to continue, ecm 12z op loses its consistency at day 8 so i suggest sticking with the ens. note that gem post day 6 continues with the east veering ne and then north as the high retrogresses to greenland

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

The coldest uppers continue to head north

I appreciate this is probably the start of your long haul for warmth but your clutching at more straws than Ronald Mcdonald.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm has gone off on one in my opinion yet it still looks very good for cold and snow!!expect it to come in line again tomorrow!!winter continues!!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

theres alot of talk being made about easter weekend which is fi. not much point at this stage pinning much hopes on either mild or cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well ECM is at least not showing consistency in it's runs if it's cold you want

ECM1-216.GIF?25-0

Greenland high this time.

ECM1-240.GIF?25-12

Last run, different solution

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Ecm has gone off on one in my opinion yet it still looks very good for cold and snow!!expect it to come in line again tomorrow!!winter continues!!

Lets just see where it sits in the ens - i suspect the mean wont show a similar output.

Anyhoo, looking a bit closer ahead in the time frame, anyone spot the trough on the 72hr fax?

fax72s.gif?25-12

Perhaps bringing the threat of snow to the home counties, the SE and EA

One to watch

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

T216 sends the last remaining -8 uppers away

00z

ECM0-216.GIF?00

12z

ECM0-216.GIF?25-0

2 successive runs go for more a less the same uppers and given the difference in time its pretty good going (even last night ECM was hinting at less cold air for this date so infact its 3 runs in a row now)

ECM1-216.GIF?25-0

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

It really comes to something when we are talking up the prospect of milder weather based on an ECM run that has winds predominantly from the East and wants to form a Greenland high.

ECH1-216.GIF?25-0

Sort of puts things in context - ie how bitter it has been, is and will be for the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

These Easterly winds will eventually bring us some warm sunny weather away from eastern coastal regions.

By end of April early May I'd say. smile.png

Seriously for this cold spell to persist through April winds would have to swing round to a more Northerly direction because mainland Europe will start warming up soon due to longer daylight and with increasing heat from sunshine.

ps... I think this will happen eventually to bring a ending to our present set up.

Edited by Bradowl
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

And t240 ends with the less cold uppers still in place most of southern Europe starts to warm up as well at long last

ECM0-240.GIF?25-0

ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

So the positive step tonight is there is an end in sight once more to the stubborn bitterly cold uppers leaving early next week in the south first before clearing the north by mid week

The Negative is we remain with stubborn cloud cover & a cool breeze (the west would see th best of any brighter weather)

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

These Easterly winds will eventually bring us some warm sunny weather away from eastern coastal regions.

By end of April early May I'd say. smile.png

Seriously for this cold spell to persist through April winds would have to swing round to a more Northerly direction because mainland Europe will start warming up soon due to longer daylight and with increasing heat from sunshine.

Eh?? Warm and sunny?

ECH1-240.GIF?25-0

Wet and miserable would be better put. Maybe the far north might have dry and cool weather.

That is just dreadful and would put bring haunting memories back of last summer.

The Jetstream is still continuing it's tour of the Sahara desert rofl.gif

Note - dreadful run as in only good for ducks and canoe salesmen

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, snow
  • Location: Glasgow

And t240 ends with the less cold uppers still in place most of southern Europe starts to warm up as well at long last

ECM0-240.GIF?25-0

ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

That's FI, Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

These Easterly winds will eventually bring us some warm sunny weather away from eastern coastal regions.

By end of April early May I'd say. smile.png

Seriously for this cold spell to persist through April winds would have to swing round to a more Northerly direction because mainland Europe will start warming up soon due to longer daylight and with increasing heat from sunshine.

But the cold sea surface is making me think: extensive haar? Aberdaron should be okay, though...cray.gif

Edited by Rybris Ponce
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Ian F I wonder if you can help.

I am intrigued to know what happened yesterday with regards to temperatures in the s/e.

The temps dropped through the morning into the afternoon with a temp of around -1c

here in herts between midday and 2pm then the temps slowly started to rise during

the rest of the afternoon and evening nudging just above 0c in herts before slowly

dropping again after midnight.

Chionomaniac proposed it may have been a very cold surface layer coming across from

the continent. 850 temps at that time were around -6c I think and not supportive of such

low 2m temps I would have thought.

Is there a skew-t diagram available for yesterday in this area that would show the 900-

950 temps.

Funnily enough here in south Herts the temps are again at there warmest now at around

+0.6 than earlier on this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

And t240 ends with the less cold uppers still in place most of southern Europe starts to warm up as well at long last

ECM0-240.GIF?25-0

ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

So the positive step tonight is there is an end in sight once more to the stubborn bitterly cold uppers leaving early next week in the south first before clearing the north by mid week

Well, on the face of it yes but look at the blocking that remains at Northern latitude - going forward from there we would be ending up somewhere between well below average and very cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

No different to when coldies look in FI for cold during the winter

wink.png

When was the last time FI delivered for us coldies ,Gavin? rofl.gif
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