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Scotland (Alba) Regional Discussion 28th March 2013 22:00hrs>


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Still very cold out there, not great for the kids being off on holiday ! Still remaining patches of snow cover although definitely a lot drier over this weekend. We may hit the dizzy heights of 6 or 7 degrees this week.

Overnight minima again remaining very frosty. When will the jet start meandering North... Bizarre looking position on the chart below !

post-7292-0-14196300-1364806603_thumb.pn

GFS vs ECM night and day - didn't check the model runs last night so no idea if this Sylvian having an April fools. If 00z runs are accurate then no good agreement here at 7 days out. Interesting, could be a sign of the change to something different from mid month given the disparity between the two. Each model heading down different paths, with the ECM more progressive with LP systems the GFS throwing up a mid-Atlantic block which topples. Glimpses of the Azores warming up.

144 Hrs

GFS / ECM

post-7292-0-51100300-1364806118_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-72542800-1364806122_thumb.gi

216 hrs

post-7292-0-82860100-1364806147_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-94158100-1364806152_thumb.gi

Also, have started a weather blog so please have a visit, your eyes would be much appreciated. I spend a lot of time posting here so thought a wee corner of the Internet would be a good idea to archive weather things in, also no experience of building a website so it is a kind of project to teach me how to do that also. Hopefully something of interest in there for everyone, any feedback is much appreciated. Link is in the signature below. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM 0z jumped up to one of the warmest in its ensembles at the end of the run so it may be wrong towards the end

wouldnt let me upload the chart

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Breeze is up a bit more today so feeling slightly chilly again. Still dry though

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

we can only wish december will look like this by the time we get there

post-18233-0-28007800-1364811001_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

At the end of this week will either see a return of milder conditions or a renewed push of cold. Surprisingly it's the ECM that has the Atlantic pushing in with this being assisted by Azores high pressure that deflects the lows off the Atlantic north east and with it end of cold.

post-9135-0-31787000-1364801762_thumb.gi

UKMO and GFS are less progresssive with the Atlantic and allow enough of a block to form to to our west. If this played out there would be a decent chance of colder air flooding down from the north east.

post-9135-0-01662600-1364801791_thumb.gi

post-9135-0-71708500-1364801837_thumb.pn

It looks very much 50/50 at this stage.

gets even more confusing when u add the GEM and the NASA to the party

both dont make as much of the low pressure in the atlantic which might mean the block winning out

post-18233-0-76088500-1364813121_thumb.ppost-18233-0-13306100-1364813129_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

we can only wish december will look like this by the time we get there

post-18233-0-28007800-1364811001_thumb.p

I wonder what they use to produce charts 9 months ahead...

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Posted
  • Location: New York City
  • Location: New York City

I can't seem to find the Scottish temperature series on the Met Office website. Anyone got any info on how March faired?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I can't seem to find the Scottish temperature series on the Met Office website. Anyone got any info on how March faired?

cold rofl.gif

LS or LORENZO will prob know i havent been checking on averages or that

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I wonder what they use to produce charts 9 months ahead...

dont have a clue but think its just a novelty thing it cant be taken serious this far out

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

dont have a clue but think its just a novelty thing it cant be taken serious this far out

tea leaves or the smell of the head forecaster's entrails?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

the ECM 0z this morning wants to bring in the atlantic but it would give us a frontal snowfall

ppn at 144h this is as far as it goes out to

post-18233-0-54206900-1364819661_thumb.p

heres how it runs from 144h

post-18233-0-20983800-1364819685_thumb.gpost-18233-0-25033700-1364819706_thumb.gpost-18233-0-85408700-1364819703_thumb.g

heres the 850's

post-18233-0-85953200-1364819727_thumb.gpost-18233-0-83412300-1364819732_thumb.gpost-18233-0-84936500-1364819738_thumb.g

now i am not sure if the threashold for snow changes this time of year and maybe someone else can let me know but from what i see the ECM looks good for a frontal dump if it comes off

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

I can't seem to find the Scottish temperature series on the Met Office website. Anyone got any info on how March faired?

I believe that provisionally it was something like the 6th coldest on record so I would imagine that the mean would be close to 1.6C (very similar to 1979). Really an exceptional month with so many amazing statistics in the context of this month and season as a whole. I few stats of note is that at Glasgow airport this month was the second snowiest since 2000 and just behind December 2009. Yesterday also saw a record low for easter sunday at Braemar with a minimum of -12.5C - that is quite a temperature for this time of year, also on many occasions this month there was a minimum value that was lower than coldest February temperature (and February was the coldest month of meteorological winter in Scotland)! The recent run of consecutive days of snowfall was also amazing and on two consecutive occasions last week there was a covering of snow before dawn making it the latest date for falling snow. Again, those stats are just a few of many in what was the most memorable month in a long, consistent and another good season for cold and snow and it's certainly worth reviewing later this month. 2013 was the March edition of noteworthy months for winter weatehr that we've seen in the past 5 years. The only thing it lacked was a few more records and a big snow-depth. What I've noticed in the past few years is the great annual contrasts in months: for example, a record warm April in 2011 followed by a much colder month in 2012, record mild March in 2012 followed by 2013, very mild October in 2011 followed by a cold October last year, record mild November 2011 then a cold month the following year..... We've just above seen everything which just proves the variability in our current weather and last month also enhances the prominence of HLB and cold conditions of recent years.

Who knows what April 2013 will tun out as nobody anticipated the events of last month. It looks like this month will start on a settled note, on the chilly side but not quite as deep as the cold of recent weeks, and there should be some lovely sunny spells too. I think most of us will settle for the fact that Januaryesque cold is behind us now, the current set of conditions is a little more in place with Spring weather but nonetheless the cold weather is continuing and this will have consequences given how Spring has barely been given a chance this year and the vedgetation in the countryside, the gardens and snow-covered hill tops look frozen in winter. A good number of frosty nights should also continue the consistency of cold conditions since late September, we could even see a low of -10C somewhere in the highlands. Winds could turn to more of a northerly in the coming days so for some there maybe a few wintry showers - the only thing 2012/2013 has lacked was a snowier November so it would be nice to have some snow to mention this month. Eventually, around a third of the way through, we should see low pressure pouncing in from the atlantic which will bring a real change to the weather. The final two-thirds of the month are up for grabs, preferably it would be nice to get some classic Spring weather for once and by the final third, the first warm spell of the year would be something to look forward to. Let's hope that this month offers the pleasant Spring conditions for great days out aswell as capturing the fantastic variability of Spring weather at that same time rather than dull, wet, excessively benign but mild conditions. Enjoy the rest of easter Monday everyone!

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Down at the beach today, lovely looking out over the Forth at the snow capped hills.

Not too much breeze, so felt pleasant when out for a daunder with the kids.

Paddling in the rock pools wasn't too bad either.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

IF that wind wasn't so nagging I think it would be a pretty perfect day!

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

What a fantastic day and the light has much more of Spring-like tinge to it. Feels pretty good too, highest temperature for a good number of weeks with a maximum of 7C at Glasgow airport, however, the last time there was an April maximum as low as today was in 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

cold rofl.gif

LS or LORENZO will prob know i havent been checking on averages or that

Over to LS, I forgot to bookmark the page with the Scottish Temps too. Did find this on the March CET thread which is insightful. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_min_sort.txt

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

Background information on the CFS is here http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsv2/news.html

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Over to LS, I forgot to bookmark the page with the Scottish Temps too. Did find this on the March CET thread which is insightful. http://www.metoffice...et_min_sort.txt

http://www.metoffice...a/download.html

Background information on the CFS is here http://cfs.ncep.noaa...cfsv2/news.html

It isn't up yet, was provisionally at 1.6C but I think it got pushed down a notch with the very low minima in the last few days:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt

Not quite as cold as I'd maybe hoped but still an exceptional month, moreso for the CET zone.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

For the first time in a long time, there is a probability for light rain today in Aberdeen.

Also noteworthy is the very impressive jump to positive values for our Arctic friend!

ao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

For the first time in a long time, there is a probability for light rain today in Aberdeen.

Also noteworthy is the very impressive jump to positive values for our Arctic friend!

ao.sprd2.gif

Indeed, it cannot hang on to negative values for over 60 days !! Been an incredible run from the AO, this post may interest you FSP as it looks at similar March months where the AO exceeded -2.0 and -2.5 for March.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

Indeed, it cannot hang on to negative values for over 60 days !! Been an incredible run from the AO, this post may interest you FSP as it looks at similar March months where the AO exceeded -2.0 and -2.5 for March.

Thanks lorenzo, I'll have a read about it on my lunch break :)

What I'm interested in at the moment is to try and understand globa climate teleconnections, the link between all the different indices and what to expect down the line in Europe when PDA, QBO or MJO changes. If you get what I'm on about. Where can I find practical and comprehensive info on this?

Many thanks!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Thanks lorenzo, I'll have a read about it on my lunch break smile.png

What I'm interested in at the moment is to try and understand globa climate teleconnections, the link between all the different indices and what to expect down the line in Europe when PDA, QBO or MJO changes. If you get what I'm on about. Where can I find practical and comprehensive info on this?

Many thanks!

Yes, I guess we all are looking for the changes and how they impact the atmosphere, the QBO is waning at present and also the MJO whilst weakened slightly idue to a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave s predicted to remain active for the next couple of weeks.

For the QBO the best place to ask is the Strat thread as Chiono knows a lot about this.

Raw dataset of zonal wind values is here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

February only -1.23 so will March see a return to Westerly values for the first time since July 2011.

For the MJO

The composites are here http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

The CPC NOAA bulletins are here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#discussion

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Very light snow here this morning, down to about 50% snow cover now. It won't last much longer with the mild mush coming soon :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Weather Preferences: Stratosphere, Thunderstorms, Hurricanes, Snow Prediction
  • Location: Aberdeen

Yes, I guess we all are looking for the changes and how they impact the atmosphere, the QBO is waning at present and also the MJO whilst weakened slightly idue to a downwelling Oceanic Kelvin Wave s predicted to remain active for the next couple of weeks.

For the QBO the best place to ask is the Strat thread as Chiono knows a lot about this.

Raw dataset of zonal wind values is here http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data

February only -1.23 so will March see a return to Westerly values for the first time since July 2011.

For the MJO

The composites are here http://raleighwx.ame...wx.com/MJO.html

The CPC NOAA bulletins are here http://www.cpc.ncep....html#discussion

Thanks lorenzo!

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