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Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A brand new thread to talk about the 12z outputs and the prospects as we go further into Spring.

Please keep your posts relevant to what the models are actually showing and try and post in a friendly manner.

If anyone would rather discuss the models more generally with their hopes or preferences then please post here

http://forum.netweat...oans-and-ramps/

We also have a more in-depth Model analysis and discussion thread here

http://forum.netweat...-and-summaries/

OK then continue below.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK to start us off a summary of where the recent outputs are pointing.

Looking through the ens graph and ECM mean charts today there`s a strong signal now for some change in our weather type after this week.

First of all if we view the T84hrs latest fax taking us to Sat 12 noon we can see the cold easterly wind has finally died away as the northern high sinks down across the country.

post-2026-0-29414900-1365002195_thumb.gi

Already we can see just out in the Atlantic the frontal systems linked to a developing area of low pressure waiting to come across the UK as we go into next week as the whole pattern moves east with our high finally giving way.

Next week promises to be more more unsettled then with rain or showers for many but with somewhat higher temperatures-especially at night-as a more westerly regime looks to take hold.

If we look at the ECM mean 500hPa and 850hPa charts for pressure and temps for day 8 this shows the pattern change.

post-2026-0-46233200-1365002503_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-07843500-1365002512_thumb.gi

No great warm up yet it must be said but looking at that ens graph we can note the gradual rise in temps to possibly the dizzying daytime heights of double figures next week.

post-2026-0-50363300-1365002887_thumb.gipost-2026-0-87010400-1365002716_thumb.gi

Increasing precipitation is evident in week 2 underlining the more unsettled theme.

After the next few chilly days then something a bit more typical for mid-Spring next week is the current outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A look at the ECM Birmingham ensemble continues to show temperatures heading in the right direction

The maximum temperature from the 5th to 17th goes from 7c to the dizzy heights of 13c on the 14th and 15th before dropping to average out to the 17th

Coleshill_15dayts_Tmax_03042013_00_D+XX.png

The minimum temperature has a sharp rise from around -1c on the 7th to +4c on the 10th which is bang on average afterwards it hovers around or just below average to the 13th before going above average from to the 17th

Coleshill_15dayts_Tmin_03042013_00_D+XX.png

Precipitation is below or at normal out to the 8th it then runs above or just above average to the 12th (with a peak on the 9th) 13th to 17th is average or below average

Coleshill_15dayts_Rain_03042013_00_D+XX.png

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Big difference between UKMO and GFS at t96.

UKMO has almost got an undercut, I think the GFS has over deepened the low again with a 15mb difference between them

GFS:

gfs-0-96.png?12

UKMO:

UW96-21.GIF?03-18

Icelandic wedge sending it south

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS shows the first area of rain from the Atlantic low during the early hours of Tuesday

gfsnh-0-132.png?12

gfs-2-132.png?12

This could be proceeded by some snow on high ground in the north and Scotland on Tuesday morning

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

gfs-2-138.png?12

Milder air edging into the south west and west Wales

gfs-1-138.png?12

Extends further east by Tuesday afternoon

gfs-1-144.png?12

Rain spreads across the country a bit of snow for high ground in Scotland but thats it else where wet and windy with the snow melt continuing from the rainfall

gfs-2-144.png?12

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

UW120-21.GIF?03-18

Have to see if ECM supports this, but with further adjustment south, could be another snow event?

GFS has none of it (when does it ever?) and goes full steam ahead with SW'erlys

gfs-0-120.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Big difference between UKMO and GFS at t96.

UKMO has almost got an undercut, I think the GFS has over deepened the low again with a 15mb difference between them

GFS:

gfs-0-96.png?12

UKMO:

UW96-21.GIF?03-18

Icelandic wedge sending it south

Not trying to be smart here...but how do we know the UKMO hasn't under deepened the low?

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

Not trying to be smart here...but how do we know the UKMO hasn't under deepened the low?

We don't, its just well know GFS often overdoes low pressures so im obliged to side with the UKMO that has verified alot better than the GFS the whole winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a wet Tuesday Wednesday is shown to have a drier interlude for many in the south and east

gfs-0-168.png?12

gfs-2-162.png?12

gfs-2-168.png?12

By early Thursday the jet stream is over the UK

gfsnh-5-180.png?12

Once that low pulls away at the end of the week pressure starts to rise behind it

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

gfs-0-228.png?12

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

Big difference between UKMO and GFS at t96.

UKMO has almost got an undercut, I think the GFS has over deepened the low again with a 15mb difference between them

GFS:

gfs-0-96.png?12

UKMO:

UW96-21.GIF?03-18

Icelandic wedge sending it south

perhaps the large bock of heights to the south knows as the AZ high might stop that , like it does 99% of the time ?

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

perhaps the large bock of heights to the south knows as the AZ high might stop that , like it does 99% of the time ?

Sorry, might stop what exactly?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS looking better than the Euros tonight (if your after a change to something a bit warmer) both UKMO and ECM drop the trough right over the UK, however the GFS 12z keeps it north, and although wet at times it allows some warmer air to push up from the south west, 14/15C would feel positively balmy!

Rmgfs1744.gif

Beautiful FI as well!

Rtavn3841.png

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Guest pjl20101

Think we need to wait for ecm and NOAA output so we can get a better picture on it. Anyone visited matt hugo's twitter page today? As we need him on this model thread so we can get a truer picture on things.

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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

Sorry, might stop what exactly?

your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Think we need to wait for ecm and NOAA output so we can get a better picture on it. Anyone visited matt hugo's twitter page today? As we need him on this model thread so we can get a truer picture on things.

Yes he's posted this

BG6_OME0_CEAAlz_Gc_png_large.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GEM is sort of a half way house between GFS and UKMO

gem-0-144.png?12

GFS is known for overdeveloping lows and this has a huge effect on the low ahead of it which is to the west of Ireland early on and this pulls the energy back westwards more quickly which allows the Azores high to ridge over us more efficiently. The other models seem to want to flatten the Azores across Iberia (even GEM). Also we need to look North East as GFS lowers pressure across the pole a lot more quickly than the other models, this also has the effect of pulling the jet further north.

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening

I never said it was going to happen but there so far has been a trend away from blasting the low through and sending more energy under on the 12z's

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=96&code=0&mode=0&carte=0

check out the GEFS, even at t96 there is huge variability on the synoptics, make of it what you will.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

your undercutting low , which goes against all teleconections indicated by NOAA as regards trough amplification and longwave pattern ,MJO is set to change phase also . dont see it happening

Yes we are set to head into phase 4 which is a wet westerly pattern. What it doesn't show is whether we are on the warm or cold side of the jet. UKMO in the blue corner, GFS in the red corner. I have stated this a lot that I feel heights are being removed too quickly by all models which has already extended this cold period by a couple of days. I also feel that the jet will be modelled further south with time, this shown by ECM and UKMO which have corrected the low southwards over the past 24/36 hours.

Damn I've wasted my evil cold squirrel/borat impersonator frozen nuts related joke ramp post. doh.gif

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

Yes we are set to head into phase 4 which is a wet westerly pattern. What it doesn't show is whether we are on the warm or cold side of the jet. UKMO in the blue corner, GFS in the red corner. I have stated this a lot that I feel heights are being removed too quickly by all models which has already extended this cold period by a couple of days. I also feel that the jet will be modelled further south with time, this shown by ECM and UKMO which have corrected the low southwards over the past 24/36 hours.

Damn I've wasted my evil cold squirrel/borat impersonator frozen nuts related joke ramp post. doh.gif

I see your point totally , just from what i see involving the fast ejecting trough across the plains next week with strong amplification towards the eastern sea board i see a pretty fast break down of heights but the scatter on ens does show other options indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS short london ensemble

graphe_ens3_ucl1.gif

Members hit average by the 10 precipitation remains low to at least 11th

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Broad southwesterlies on offer from the GFS for Wednesday next week, and what a change that will make. Temperatures reaching 14c in the south. ECM 0z has low pressure a lot closer to the UK so temperatures not so high. Eastern Scotland would be very drab and chilly under such a set up with southeasterlies off the North Sea.

Rtavn1741.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z ensembles continue the rise not many cold members now thankfully

MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Manchester_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Dublin_ens.png?6767676767

A return to some seasonal temperatures is just days away now the cold is finally on its last legs

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

12z ensembles continue the rise not many cold members now thankfully

MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Manchester_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Dublin_ens.png?6767676767

A return to some seasonal temperatures is just days away now the cold is finally on its last legs

Man the control run was (dare to say it) warm good.gif

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