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Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13


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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Beautiful GFS FI again, although whatever happens way out in fantasy land the change from the very dry and cold easterly we have become used to, to a westerly flow will feel very different, even if temps take a while to recover. The moistness of the air will be the most notable.

Rtavn2401.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Interesting GFS FI tonight is along the lines that one would expect with the late stratospheric positive mean zonal wind downwelling aligned to the MJO phase 5. And at the expected time frame too. Pity it's FI.

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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

will be nice too get the moisture back and watch the LCLs drop down , sunshine and convection looking like the theme on the gfs tonight with a ,strong advection of warmth in F.I

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Why has the UKMO 00z not updated?

Where did this little low off the South West appear from?

post-16760-0-67656600-1365055778_thumb.j

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Rtavn2643.png

Good to go on that one.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Why has the UKMO 00z not updated?

Where did this little low off the South West appear from?

Undercutting and its a worrying trend if you want to see much milder weather. ECM undercuts as well on 0z. Get the feeling the breakdown to milder weather seems to be slowly getting pushed back.

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

What a turnaround in the models. GFS and UKMO both now have an undercut low scenario early next week. ECM has shifted the low about 300 miles south between yesterday's 12z and the new 0z and would now bring snow to the north. The position and orientation will be key, but if GFS and UKMO are right the cold's not giving up without a fight.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Undercutting and its a worrying trend if you want to see much milder weather. ECM undercuts as well on 0z. Get the feeling the breakdown to milder weather seems to be slowly getting pushed back.

I can't see the ECM 00z or UKMO 00z for today, it's not updated on netweather or Meteociel yet?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I can't see the ECM 00z or UKMO 00z for today, it's not updated on netweather or Meteociel yet?

its summer time and every model is one hour later updating!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

its summer time and every model is one hour later updating!

What is everyone else looking at then? Crystal ball?

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

not seen anything since yesterdays 12z gfs.... begining to think the warm up was in the bag, after my earlier scepticism was starting to wane.... then i saw this mornings runs, ... oh dear... forget fi (c t144 onwards), this morning its looking like the block wont give up as easily as been recently progged, and that yet again the 'saviour' system could very well become a slider , tracking into france and leaving us in the bloody cold.... :(

so its pointless looking past monday atm, the cold is in situ and its not going anywhere fast.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey
  • Location: Purley, Surrey

why is wetterzentrale so slow?

anyway well done to NAVGEM for being the only model to pick up the undercut. May not have long term implications on the pattern but the cold is extended by a another few days

Edited by Jan 87
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

What is everyone else looking at then? Crystal ball?

a touch of patience might help you and have you thought of looking at other sites?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well i did say a couple of evenings back to gavin that to my eyes the cold looks to be prolonging slightly compared to the morning runs!!i just had this gut feeling that with cold air in place for this long across the uk the models were being over progressive with the atlantic and this morning sums up what i was talking about with the models!!i know its only one set of runs but dont be surprised to see even more undercutting on the 12zs!!ecm would give a snow event for midlands north in about 4 days time!!who would have thought that just 24-48 hours ago!'

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good morning. Here is the look at the 00z output from this morning's output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Thursday April 4th 2013.

All models show cold and windy couple of days across Southern Britain as the NE flow we have had for so long lasts a little longer. Through the next few days the ridge of High pressure to the North weakens and moves SE cutting off the flow and allowing a couple of dry, bright and less cold days over the weekend though still with frost at night. Things then get very complex as we move into the new week and each model has it's own variety on a theme.

GFS starts the new week with an undercutting Low sliding ESE across the English Channel with rain and hill snow affecting Southern and Western areas as the weather stays cold with a raw SE wind developing. Through Tuesday and Wednesday a more pronounced push of milder Atlantic winds extending to most areas by midweek with rain at times in normal temperatures. the wettest weather will be in the NW with the trend for Southern and Eastern parts to become drier as pressure builds close to the South. Through FI a mild Southerly flow develops for several days before fronts ganging up to the West bring rain slowly East in the second week weakening as they cross the UK. thereafter a North/South split is shown with dry and bright conditions in the South with the more traditional Atlantic wind and rainy spells reserved for the Northern half of the UK in temperatures close to average and a bit above in the South.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as one of the mildest options in the second half of the run and although the trend is still falling on the side of an increase in uppers to near or above average there are some colder options re-introduced this morning in the second half of the run. Apart from the midweek period next week rainfall amounts are quite limited across the South through the run.

The Jet Stream shows the Northward progression somewhat limited, especially over the Atlantic as it is pumped NE towards Southern UK next week. This is based on the GFS output and the other models paint it at further South latitudes than described here next week.

UKMO is a shocker this morning for those looking for milder weather next week as it has pulled everything South by several hundred miles which has drastic consequences to the spread of expected milder air early next week. Instead a undercutting Low is shown for Monday keeping things cold and wet in the south and West while the North and east stay drier. then through the midweek period a deep low moves towards the SW approaches with cloud and rain in the South with some milder air entrained here while the North looks likely to stay cold with a raw ESE wind and rain with hill snow at times.

GEM today keeps the plan as originally stated with the first attempt at milder weather on Monday held well South and missing the UK maintaining cold conditions through Monday. the parent low then slides over Britain with rain, strong winds and milder weather midweek before Northern High pressure pushes the next depression further South and renews the possibility of a return to colder conditions in 10 days time at the same time as keeping things unsettled.

ECM today also shows the first depression on Monday making little headway North as it disrupts and fills as it slides away East out of Southern England through Monday and Tuesday. Rain and hill snow is likely early in the week before a rather cold and quieter spell midweek is replaced by a more substantial Northern placed depression brings milder and unsettled weather to all areas by the end of the week with SW wind and rain at times.

In Summary next weeks transition to milder weather looks a very messy and complex setup to handle for the models. In essence they all show the first attempt failing with varying degrees of the spread of cloud, rain and hill snow into the UK on Monday restricted mostly to the South and West. The behaviour of the following parent Low is what's instrumental in where the weather goes thereafter. Most models now show it holding South and further holding up the transgression to milder conditions next week with rain and strong chilly winds remaining a feature for all with the North seeing very little chance of anything significantly warmer through the working week. At the end of the runs we see an eventual warm up pointed to from the models but we seem to have been at that stage for what seems an age now so we will have to see what transpires. It maybe that the models may have just wobbled this morning and revert back to milder outcomes quicker this evening but those who have plugged the change to milder weather next week may be a little premature in their predictions as this is no usual Spring cold spell and as there is still a lot of cold air bottled up in the Northern hemisphere I would not put high odds on us still staying cold for the majority of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

s there is still a lot of cold air bottled up in the Northern hemisphere I would not put high odds on us still staying cold for the majority of next week.

did you mean to say it that way?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The GFS ensemble run at t96 doesn't develop that low to the SW

gens-21-1-96.png?0

Op

gfs-0-96.png?0

The trend to milder conditions is clear to see from the 9th in western Ireland and then the 10th onwards for the UK

BG_Ts_WWCEAAhrim_png_large.png

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl
  • Location: wales,heads of the valley 1100ft asl

s there is still a lot of cold air bottled up in the Northern hemisphere I would not put high odds on us still staying cold for the majority of next week.

did you mean to say it that way?

Makes perfect sense to me.Gibby thinks the odds on us staying cold next week are low,hence he wouldn't put high odds on it remaining cold.

Understand?

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

NAVGEM indeed has performed well, I know I was in ramp mode the other day when I cited it but surprisingly it seems to have picked up the undercut well and maybe deserves looking at a bit more seriously in future. It looks like winter will hang on a while longer according to the models this morning

UKMO

Rukm961.gif

Rukm1201.gif

ECM

Recm961.gif

Recm1201.gif

GFS

Rtavn1021.png

And of course NAVGEM

Rnvg1081.gif

All the models are progressive after that so a warm up is inevitable, however there may be some snow surprises before that especially for the usual suspects i.e. high ground towards the north.

ENS confirm the warm up again

MT8_London_ens.png

But some pretty cold stragglers still there but much in the minority.

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Makes perfect sense to me.Gibby thinks the odds on us staying cold next week are low,hence he wouldn't put high odds on it remaining cold.

Understand?

we agree to disagree on the meaning

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Most models become progressive and push the warmer conditions through in FI but GEM is worth a look as it hints a possible undercutting in FI

Rgem2281.gif

Rgem2401.gif

Unlikely, I know but stranger things have happened particularly this winter / spring. wink.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

we agree to disagree on the meaning

Better clear this one up. It was written in a hurry and on reading it back it doesn't make much sense. What I meant to say is that there is still a lot of cold around to the North of the UK in the charts for next week and because of that I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed cold for much of next week over the UK, especially the North. Sorry for the confusion.

Edited by Gibby
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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

Makes perfect sense to me.Gibby thinks the odds on us staying cold next week are low,hence he wouldn't put high odds on it remaining cold.

Understand?

No not really as it says the opposite! It suggests that we the chances of us remaining cold next week are higher according to this morning's models

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

No not really as it says the opposite! It suggests that we the chances of us remaining cold next week are higher according to this morning's models

Please refer to my corrrection above

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