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Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I will stress the lack of consistency with the GFS

This run

gfs-0-162.png?12

Last run

gfs-0-168.png?6

Where's the low off the Eastern seaboard gone help.gif

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

Note the ejection of the shortwave in the northeast of the usa on this run and not the last . There is some very active weather developing in the U.S next week with a strong negative trough off the rockies on monday/tueday therefor is causing problems with consistency downstream.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS sends the low north wards by t186

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

Pressure is becoming high across southern Europe next week

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Peter Gibbs giving it large just said the mild weather is getting pushed back. We was expected it to reach the UK on Monday but now looks very likely to reach us much later next week.

Will it ever reach us?

Meanwhile i see the GFS continues to chop and change with every single run.

What's happened to today's UKMO 12Z?

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Peter Gibbs giving it large just said the mild weather is getting pushed back. We was expected it to reach the UK on Monday but now looks very likely to reach us much later next week.

Will it ever reach us?

Meanwhile i see the GFS continues to chop and change with every single run.

What's happened to the UKMO 12Z?

The law of physics says it will at some point, the charts that Gavin posted are what we need too see happening as we approach the reliable.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

So after that what do we have.

GFS - mild at any cost, no matter what random stuff happens in the first 96 hours (sums this model up tbh)

UKMO - ???????????????

GEM - Decides that model watching was not confusing enough and throws another option in the ring, a continued cold, dry Easterly, though there are signs that it would become warmer as pressure would build strongly with winds veering South Easterly. One thing to note is that the weather would be settled and if continued (someone would probably verify this later), the weather would probably stay dry and fine for the rest of next week at least.

So, I myself have no idea what's going to happen beyond the weekend.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Peter Gibbs giving it large just said the mild weather is getting pushed back. We was expected it to reach the UK on Monday but now looks very likely to reach us much later next week.

Will it ever reach us?

Meanwhile i see the GFS continues to chop and change with every single run.

What's happened to today's UKMO 12Z?

Interesting. good.gif
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

not that concerned about mild atm id settle for getting on the positive side of that wretched 528 dam line! :lol: and we appear to do that over sunday , along with the -5c upper. plus if we ever lose that equally wretched breeze itll feel much better.

so ill settle for a period of 'less cold', right now.

post-2797-0-58471900-1365094424_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

The law of physics says it will at some point, the charts that Gavin posted are what we need too see happening as we approach the reliable.

Ah, the good old 'reliable'!

Yes of course physics says it will turn milder, but who's to say we might not have a cool and unsettled second part to spring instead of a milder/warm one?

I did say a few days ago i wasn't buying into a quick change to milder conditions and wouldn't believe any milder weather was coming until it was showing in the reliable, and to be honest there still isn't any real mild weather showing until FI.

It's been snowing here for most of the day albeit lightly and although i do love cold/snowy weather with a passion even i have to admit that now i could do with a little warmth, we are 5 weeks into spring after all. It's just a shame that there's not much of that on the horizon at present.

Some of the models were suggesting quite a quick route to mild weather only a couple of days ago but looking at them today i feel it's going to be a bit of a slow painful process i'm afraid.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Interesting. good.gif

He has also just said it will be turning milder and wetter during the week after a cold start

Some very low temperatures for the time of year early on Saturday a severe frost for some western locations

ukmintemp.png

ukmintemp.png

Latest UKMO charts

Rukm961.gif

Rukm1201.gif

Rukm1441.gif

Bitterly cold east to south easterly winds Monday and Tuesday easing by Wednesday as the low moves through

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Rukm1441.gif

Low pressure surrounded on all sides by high pressure. The GFS indicates the low should start to move north as time progresses.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

He has also just said it will be turning milder and wetter during the week after a cold start

Some very low temperatures for the time of year early on Saturday a severe frost for some western locations

ukmintemp.png

ukmintemp.png

Latest UKMO charts

Rukm961.gif

Rukm1201.gif

Rukm1441.gif

Bitterly cold east to south easterly winds Monday and Tuesday easing by Wednesday as the low moves through

Maybe a snow event for monday/tuesday and a prolonged one at that for the midlands north!!
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

He has also just said it will be turning milder and wetter during the week after a cold start

Latest UKMO charts

Rukm1201.gif

Rukm1441.gif

Bitterly cold east to south easterly winds Monday and Tuesday easing by Wednesday as the low moves through

Unfortunately though the low will clear east into Europe bringing in a northerly wind, before high pressure collapses over us, just like ECM output this morning. So not much good for anyone who wants even average temperatures until beyond day 8 (unless you buy the GFS evolution)

To put it bluntly some GFS ensembles bring mild weather to the whole of the UK by Sunday night.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

minimum temperature on Saturday, probably exaggerated this time, although the GFS has got some of them right recently, admittedly, but I doubt that this time..

I feel the 12z has actually got a more realistic look to it, it's now binned those southeasterly hot airflows in FI and replaced them with something that, in my opinion, based on the pattern change about to occur, looks more likely. Atlantic lows with ocassional weak ridges of high pressure mean a typical pattern for our shores; aka, rainbands, followed by sunshine and showers, and overnight frosts. In general a cool outlook as well with temperature average to slightly below generally.

longer term, perhaps increasing suggestion the jetstream will stay south? I do think were overdue an exceptionally cold year as whole.. even if it's not the most popular outcome!

Edited by SP1986
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Guest pjl20101

I have looked at a local forecast tonight and they seem adamant that we will get milder but more unsettled. The UKMO are right in my books tonight. Need to wait for the ecm tonight to get a true evolution.

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

To put it bluntly some GFS ensembles bring mild weather to the whole of the UK by Sunday night.

As we all know the GFS had a wretched winter, and going by the last few outputs it's thrown out it doesn't seem to be improving much as we go into spring either as every single run is completely different to it's last, so can we trust it? It really is hard to take it seriously right now.

I know some of us have our 'favourite' models (especially of course when they show the weather of our choice blum.gif ) but the GFS is certainly not mine and has gone well down in my estimation.

Just seen the UKMO 12Z that gavin posted and that certainly doesn't scream anything mild that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
I do think were overdue an exceptionally cold year as whole.. even if it's not the most popular outcome!

Just like the last 7 years of summers then, so no change there.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

but the gfs has twice as many runs as the others so its bound to appear more irratic

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

but the gfs has twice as many runs as the others so its bound to appear more irratic

Yes, i guess i can understand what you are saying, but i just don't really rate the GFS as a top performing model at times! I even think it was over taken by the no longer with us mighty Nogaps model in verification stats at one point during the winter. That says it all really.

Meanwhile the ECM 12Z has an unsettled cool look about it early next week...

Recm1201.gif

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM brings the cold east to southeasterly winds as per UKMO on Monday and Tuesday

ECM1-96.GIF?04-0

ECM1-120.GIF?04-0

ECM0-120.GIF?04-0

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

For all the talk of summer could be cold or wet or both and it probably following the last x summers to some folk. The question is why, how about some meteorological reasons?

Maybe we could open a thread on why summer 2013 will be cold and or wet?

Think back a few years and the belief with some that a cold winter would never be possible, real deep cold in any month was unlikely? Nov-Dec 2010, winter 2009-10 etc, even January this year for over 2 weeks to say nothing of the second most extreme March in some parts?

Why could not the blocking which seems rather more common not work for summer with heat and spells of dry weather. Heaven forbid it becomes a drought but why not?

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Yes, i guess i can understand what you are saying, but i just don't really rate the GFS as a top performing model at times! I even think it was over taken by the no longer with us mighty Nogaps model in verification stats at one point during the winter. That says it all really.

Meanwhile the ECM 12Z has an unsettled cool look about it early next week...

Recm1201.gif

Most folks want some warmth now ,Ecm does not agree!!

post-6830-0-28016100-1365100388_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Kearsley
  • Location: Manchester Kearsley

Well the BBC weather today has changed from getting milder with a warmer outlook to getting much colder on Monday!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM follows UKMO in moving the low over the UK at t144

ECH1-144.GIF?04-0

ECM0-144.GIF?04-0

Chilly air remains

ECM1-168.GIF?04-0

ECM0-168.GIF?04-0

High pressure over Greenland the Atlantic becomes blocked once again

Edited by Gavin.
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