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What would set your alarm bells ringing for the approach of a sub 1million ice pack over summer?


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Seeing as this year is the first mooted (2016 + or - 3 years) for an ice free Arctic (less than 1 million sq km) what would you need to see by late July to harbour concerns that the end might be nigh?

     

    We have all seen, since 07', where the remnant pack resides come Aug so would a change in positioning of the remnant ice signal the change to 'ice free'?

     

    Would it take exceptional early season melt to raise the spectre of 'ice free'?

     

    Would you need to see the 07' 'perfect storm' synoptics set up over the basin for the melt season?

     

    What do you think will have you seriously considering that you were watching the end of year round sea ice in the Arctic basin?

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    Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

    I think that the arctic ice situation is clearly one that needs careful consideration of ALL possible contributory factors towards the retreat of the ice sheet. However, apocalyptical type assessments I think are an uneccesary part of that process and especially so if they happen prematurelysmile.png

     

    Clearly there is a relationship between cyclical natural positive and negative phases which affect the atmospheric and ocean circulatory system and affect extent, distribution and re-distribution of ice. That needs to be assessed properly and given a higher weighting alongside research into artifical forcings which may, or may not, be influencing what is happening.

     

    We have seen how changes in solar activity are already having a large background influence on these processes. Reducing and ever weaker solar activity has meant that there has been a more frequent re-distribution of ozone from the tropics to the pole and this for sure accounts for the overall warming trend seen in the polar stratosphere, which in turn accounts for greater occurance of High Pressure blocking patterns at the North Pole. As the polar stratospheric profile has been changing in this way, we have have seen the effects quite visibly since 2007 in terms of the effects this sort of pressure pattern has on arctic ice in the summer season when these pressure patterns have dominated most summers since then.  So its no coincidence at all that the arrival of this more dominant blocked synoptic pattern at this time accounts for the accelerated ice loss we have seen also since 2007.

     

    We have seen how as a result the changed Arctic Oscillation state to a much more predominantly negative state has logically displaced cold arctic air to mid latitudes and has begun to have effects there. In tandem with cooling ocean phases, e.g the emerging dominance of La Nina phasing (also as no coincidence beginning since 2007) this mid latitude cooling process has been accelerated along with the jet stream at a more southerly latitude. We need to ask is this the start of a natural feedback process in reverse from the current one which eventually goes full cycle with polar cooling feedback occuring as mid latidues and oceans cool and an eventual change in the arctic ice profile occurs once more?

     

    These are natural changes to consider and not unexplained apocalyptical forces at worksmile.png

     

    We should also ask why Antarctic ice has been growing while Polar ice has been retreating.. Perhaps the Tropical Stratosphere encountered a phasing previously whereby concentrated ozone there influenced the Tropical Stratosphere in the same way as the Polar Stratosphere is being influenced now - and produced a similar pre-dominant High pressure state which was part of a process of expelling cold air initially from the Antarctic into the SH before naturally having a reversed cooling process feedback that allowed in turn a natural re-build of ice there once again?

     

    So will 'alarm bells' be ringing in whatever outcome we see this August, or even the next one? No, not really for me in any dramatic sense smile.png  Analysis and evaluation of how much these natural phases are influencing what is happening being given a higher priority in the scientific study area however would be welcomed instead and hopefully give a more balanced, logical and rational perspective of what might be at work rather than trying to cost analyse effects of assumed artifical forcings on the arctic (and climate as a whole) first of all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Thanks Tamara, i wish my understandings were able to bring the comfort that yours obviously do? as it is i'm stuck with my 'understanding' that what we are seeing is 'unprecidented' for this stage in our orbital forcing and ,as such, falls outside any cyclical behaviours we would seek to 'best fit' our observations with.

     

    The appearence , in the north Atlantic, of Pacific foramnifera, post 07,' that have been absent in the Atlantic basin  sediment core record for over 70 thousand years must point to an event unseen in a similar length of time (and other 'visitors' to our side of the Arctic Basin, including the Gray whale that took a tour of isreal a few years back)?

     

    We are either looking at solar behaviour absent for many thousands of years (unlikely at best?) or we must become resigned to look for an 'extra' novel forcing pushing the Arctic to behave in extreme ways?

     

    Anyhoo's , back on topic, the basin has changed in ways that preclude any 'instant' fix and , as we saw in 07', the basin is prone to 'perfect storm' synopsis that brought a basin full of paleo ice to the record low of 07'. We must imagine what the return of those synotics will do to a basin full of sub 3m FY ice (3 to 13yrs and counting).

     

    Whenever we make gains they must maintain over a perfect storm summer or we fall back to where we are now? Any 'recovery' must have this quality or it is doomed to failure (IMHO).

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    What would sound my alarm bells? An Arctic ice-extent lower than last year's. Why? Because such an eventuality would put the final nail in the 'it's the sun what done it' line of argument...

     

    The run of colder winters here in NW Europe, however, is a different matter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

    Thanks Tamara, i wish my understandings were able to bring the comfort that yours obviously do? as it is i'm stuck with my 'understanding' that what we are seeing is 'unprecidented' for this stage in our orbital forcing and ,as such, falls outside any cyclical behaviours we would seek to 'best fit' our observations with.

     

    The appearence , in the north Atlantic, of Pacific foramnifera, post 07,' that have been absent in the Atlantic basin  sediment core record for over 70 thousand years must point to an event unseen in a similar length of time (and other 'visitors' to our side of the Arctic Basin, including the Gray whale that took a tour of isreal a few years back)?

     

    We are either looking at solar behaviour absent for many thousands of years (unlikely at best?) or we must become resigned to look for an 'extra' novel forcing pushing the Arctic to behave in extreme ways?

     

    Anyhoo's , back on topic, the basin has changed in ways that preclude any 'instant' fix and , as we saw in 07', the basin is prone to 'perfect storm' synopsis that brought a basin full of paleo ice to the record low of 07'. We must imagine what the return of those synotics will do to a basin full of sub 3m FY ice (3 to 13yrs and counting).

     

    Whenever we make gains they must maintain over a perfect storm summer or we fall back to where we are now? Any 'recovery' must have this quality or it is doomed to failure (IMHO).

     Perspective and balance are the the words I think that are operative here, and the ones that were relevant to what I had to saysmile.png .

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Agreed Tamara which is why I cannot fathom your weighting of the issues to hand?

     

    I'm sure Cucumbers appear like Chillies to you!

     

    In your lifetime we have lost over 70% of the Arctic ice, which was already in decline since the late 1800's, so when do you feel it prudent to have concerns about the speed and scale of the decline and how can you not see the potential for a similar collapse to 07'/2012 taking the basin into ice free status?

     

    Ice loss has occured across all states of the solar cycle and solar output during the past 100yrs+ yet the ice still melted (look at the decimation of the Ward hunt complex throughout the 20th century...an ediface  unchanged since the end of the last ice age....remember T3 was a potion of the self same system and we watched that 'island' decay on radar through the 50's) so if 'the sun did it' we have problems greater than AGW as it is behaveing in ways that we have no analogue for throughout the paleo record!

     

    Anyhoo's , the ice's last stand. I fear that the changes last years losses have placed on the N.Hemisphere circulation will mean a very H.P. dominated mid latitude with inner continental highs expanding into areas that have suffered 'trough' conditions. This will lead to a rapid 'top melt' third of the season leading to far more open water by late june than ever witnessed.

     

    The impacts of this will be two fold. Sea surface temps will be higher than recorded and the occurance of GAC12 type L.P. systems (driven by the contrast of remnant ice and super heated polar ocean waters).

     

    The rump of the pack will suffer both higher bottom melt rates but also, courtesy of Crackopalpse and GAC12 type disturbances, total immersion melt episodes.

     

    I am not sure whether we will crack the 1 million mark this year or not. I feel if it has not been breached by early Aug then it is safe (and will only be marginal and hotly debated should it cross the 1 million threshold) but if , by late july, it looks on the cards then we will fall well below 1 million.

     

    For me I would suggest close scrutiny of the second half of May to see how fast the Russian side of the pack responds to melt pressures?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    If all the Arctic ice melted, all it would prove is that ice melts........  It doesn't prove that any of the different theories are correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    If all the Arctic ice melted, all it would prove is that ice melts........  It doesn't prove that any of the different theories are correct.

    ?

    But the impacts upon our planet would be great P.P.

    We have plenty of records to show what past albedo flips have brought in terms of sudden temp hikes and ,today, such would easily breach the 0.4c 'must stay below' for total permafrost meltout (and the3 feedback that provides) never mind Antarctic melt (and albedo flip...remember West Antarctica has always played 'lead' in past deglaciations so ,with the ozone issue now healing, we have that area playing 'catchup')

    As far as 'proving theories'? Why should we see energy enough to melt out the Arctic when orbital forcings have been fading for thousands of years? Where has this energy suddenly manifested from?

    Show me past analogues of weird solar behaviour and I'd have to concede that the past 50yrs of solar 'slowdown' might , somehow, produce extra energy on earth (even through the veil of particulate pollution we have put in place.

    I know Sea ice loss is a very frightening thing to us all (or should be...if you find yourself unconcerned I suggest further reading on the subject as you might not fully understand the implications?) but wew should not hide in 'denial'. You might find your very life depends on being 'forewarned' someday?

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    Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

    Agreed Tamara which is why I cannot fathom your weighting of the issues to hand?

     

    I'm sure Cucumbers appear like Chillies to you!

     

    In your lifetime we have lost over 70% of the Arctic ice, which was already in decline since the late 1800's, so when do you feel it prudent to have concerns about the speed and scale of the decline and how can you not see the potential for a similar collapse to 07'/2012 taking the basin into ice free status?

     

    Ice loss has occured across all states of the solar cycle and solar output during the past 100yrs+ yet the ice still melted (look at the decimation of the Ward hunt complex throughout the 20th century...an ediface  unchanged since the end of the last ice age....remember T3 was a potion of the self same system and we watched that 'island' decay on radar through the 50's) so if 'the sun did it' we have problems greater than AGW as it is behaveing in ways that we have no analogue for throughout the paleo record!

     

    Anyhoo's , the ice's last stand. I fear that the changes last years losses have placed on the N.Hemisphere circulation will mean a very H.P. dominated mid latitude with inner continental highs expanding into areas that have suffered 'trough' conditions. This will lead to a rapid 'top melt' third of the season leading to far more open water by late june than ever witnessed.

     

    The impacts of this will be two fold. Sea surface temps will be higher than recorded and the occurance of GAC12 type L.P. systems (driven by the contrast of remnant ice and super heated polar ocean waters).

     

    The rump of the pack will suffer both higher bottom melt rates but also, courtesy of Crackopalpse and GAC12 type disturbances, total immersion melt episodes.

     

    I am not sure whether we will crack the 1 million mark this year or not. I feel if it has not been breached by early Aug then it is safe (and will only be marginal and hotly debated should it cross the 1 million threshold) but if , by late july, it looks on the cards then we will fall well below 1 million.

     

    For me I would suggest close scrutiny of the second half of May to see how fast the Russian side of the pack responds to melt pressures?

    Hi - my first post yesterday in the first line suggested that ALL possible contributory factors should be considered. I simply outlined the ones that I felt were considered less important in scientific studies and should be given some closer attention alongside scrutiny into AGW theory.

     

    That sees quite balanced to mesmile.png

     

    One quiet and gentle request, pretty please?smile.png  Can the word 'denial' or 'denialist' be removed from these discussions - I don't think it serves any helpful purposesmile.png  Ta muchly!smile.png

     

    It will be some yet before we can dismiss the role of the sun, that is if we ever can do such a thing anyway. Indeed I think more and more evidence points towards where it does, and has influenced the changes under discussion. Besides climatic shifts are not measured from one year to the next, they are measured over multi decades. Afterall, IPCC extrapolations are up to 80 yrs!

     

    On this basis alone, we have to be extremely careful not to draw premature conclusions about ice sheet variation. That is not to deny (used in its non sloganistic context) anything, in fact it is the opposite, it is to be completely open minded, calm, non-doomsday and realisticsmile.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Hi - my first post yesterday in the first line suggested that ALL possible contributory factors should be considered. I simply outlined the ones that I felt were considered less important in scientific studies and should be given some closer attention alongside scrutiny into AGW theory.

     

    That sees quite balanced to mesmile.png

     

    One quiet and gentle request, pretty please?smile.png  Can the word 'denial' or 'denialist' be removed from these discussions - I don't think it serves any helpful purposesmile.png  Ta muchly!smile.png

     

    It will be some yet before we can dismiss the role of the sun, that is if we ever can do such a thing anyway. Indeed I think more and more evidence points towards where it does, and has influenced the changes under discussion. Besides climatic shifts are not measured from one year to the next, they are measured over multi decades. Afterall, IPCC extrapolations are up to 80 yrs!

     

    On this basis alone, we have to be extremely careful not to draw premature conclusions about ice sheet variation. That is not to deny (used in its non sloganistic context) anything, in fact it is the opposite, it is to be completely open minded, calm, non-doomsday and realisticsmile.png

    We have tried the 'prohibition' route before, Tamara; but it just meant that folks were searching for alternative ways of describing those who refuse to countenance the possibility of whichever drivers/feedbacks they would prefer to dismiss...

     

    It's not an easy one, that.help.gif biggrin.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

    We have tried the 'prohibition' route before, Tamara; but it just meant that folks were searching for alternative ways of describing those who refuse to countenance the possibility of whichever drivers/feedbacks they would prefer to dismiss...

     

    It's not an easy one, that.help.gif biggrin.png 

    I don't think that people are as dismissive as it might appear. Polarisation of opinion only becomes apparent when one view is persistently stated and it leads to others feeling they have to counter balance this by providing a different one on an equally dogged and determined basis.

     

    Nevertheless, I'm not sure that necessarily means that a middle way isn't apparent and doesn't exist in realitysmile.png

     

    Simply stating the possible existence of other drivers should be enough to avoid an impression of entrenchment but at the same time make one able to present their point of view as to what they personally believe without having to agree necessarily with a different view to themselvessmile.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Thanks Pete!

     

    It is not used a a derogatory term , just a description? Sadly such views exist and so demand a name so folk can clearly understand what is what and who is who?

     

    I'd agree that we must 'load' each forcing as we witness it in nature and so solar cannot be given the major forcing that some folk seem to imply (it's all the Sun type posters).

     

    The only forcing that has been on the increase throughout the destruction of the old arctic has been that of human pollution? I really cannot see any other forcing that spans the time period (and scale of impact) that we have all witnessed?

     

    When you consider how much 'extra energy' has gone into raising ocean temps you begin to realise how mind bogglingly large the numbers are that we have been seeing. The failure of that energy to manifest as 'temperature increase' appears , to me, to be what some folk are banging on about whilst totally neglecting to account for the energy we have seen spent on snow/ice melt and oceanic warming? Sadly such neglect will return to bite them in the bum as certain 'tasks ' become completed and the energy goes to work elsewhere? We see this across the Arctic basin as ice finally melts out (that used to maintain all year and so 'drain energy' in the melting task over summer) and coastal waters warm to temps rivaling mid latitudes and temps , inland, rise to record breaking levels (impacting permafrosts).

     

    Once the deep ocean conveyor brings slightly warmer waters to the 'cold upwelling' regions then would be a good time to see what global temps do! If the water is only 0.5c warmer than it was historically how much 'extra energy' is freed up into the system that used to be spent on warming (and this is a year round impact)?

     

    For me the AGW side of things is now a mere side show as the impacts it had begun to force take over under their own steam and we enter a period of true 'Climate Chaos' as we saw at the end of the younger Dryas. I'm not toting a 10c rise over a decade but a 2c rise would be destructive enough when you consider the planets capacity to hold onto that heat and to release far more GHG's than we have done as our permafrost go into freefall meltdown?

     

    Back to the ice.

     

    Crackopalypse has left the ice in very poor condition. I expect a far faster melt out in prone regions due to this lack of structural integrity (the surface area to mass of each floe is now dramatically altered due to shattering......remember the old freezers and how we used to speed up the 'thaw' when cleaning them?) and also due to the synoptics that last years mega melt has brought into being (even lower energy Jet).

     

    If the waves of heat the S.Greenland H.P. brought to bare on Summit last year are anything to go by then the surges of heat that will advect from the inner continental highs, surrounding the basin, will flash melt coastal regions through late May/June (remember our best ice , this year, is off Siberia) leaving only the shattered core by late July and waters warmed by the sun for over 6 weeks all around. It could even come to pass that the Pole produces it's own ,self sustaining low pressure system (due to temp contrasts between ice/advected air and the Coriolis effect) spinning the last of the ice out into melt zones..........now that would be fun eh? Upper and lower centrered low sat over the pole for a month of two?

     

    I digresss, My origional gut instinct was that the ice would rebound this year but the more I thought about it the less likely I knew this to be. Crackopalypse sealed the deal, I was expecting Spring Tide fracture events but not as we came to witness, Freaky really? So here we are. Melt season underway less ice , more F.Y. ice and all of it smashed to bits....how can folk see 'recovery' of any sort?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    but wew should not hide in 'denial'.

    Who's denying anything? The ice is melting.... I agree.

    I'd much prefer it if you could get inside my head so you could understand my angle better..

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

     

     

    In your lifetime we have lost over 70% of the Arctic ice, which was already in decline since the late 1800's, so when do you feel it prudent to have concerns about the speed and scale of the decline and how can you not see the potential for a similar collapse to 07'/2012 taking the basin into ice free status?

     

    70% for a few weeks in the high summer surely and that was only 2012.. Most of it comes back in the winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I think you'll find that you are confusing ice mass with ice extent stew? The ice has reduced by 70%, the thin skin that now gives us 'extent' peels back to reveal 50% of the Arctic ocean through July , Aug and part of Sept? 

     

    When you then consider that all the ocean was covered in ice and reflecting 90% of the 24hr sun a few years back you might understand what a big deal it is that now all the open water gobbles up nearly 90% of the incoming solar over the same period.

     

    We have the energy , made redundant from it's ice melting job, and this new energy that we used to bounce back into space. What does extra energy to our climate system stew?

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    I saw a guy sat in Hyde Park today with a sign around him that read 'things are only going to get worse' - Grey Wolf was this you ;)

    On a more serious note, when would you expect to see a dramatic drop in winter ice extent occur? Or would winter ice always be a steady permanent feature?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    I saw a guy sat in Hyde Park today with a sign around him that read 'things are only going to get worse' - Grey Wolf was this you tease.gif

    On a more serious note, when would you expect to see a dramatic drop in winter ice extent occur? Or would winter ice always be a steady permanent feature?

     

    Most studies seem to suggest that it will take quite a while longer before the winter ice disappears, and quite a lot of warming. 

     

    One of the keys seems to be that as the Arctic ocean heats up more and more each summer (before releasing the heat back to space in Autumn/Winter), eventually it releases enough heat and moisture in Autumn and Winter to cause strong convective cloud formation, which blocks much of the outgoing longwave energy, preventing the ocean from cooling efficiently and forming sea ice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    The American Navy also voice concerns about the speed with which summer 'ice free' will grow into the year once we see the first 'ice free' period.

     

    I think once we are on this trajectory things will move pretty quickly? This is why some folk are concerned about an early appearence of ice free/near ice free conditions as the energy this allows into play is of a scale to mess with the climates working in large and instantaneous ways?

     

    Let's not forget that , at depth , the Arctic ocean already holds the energy to be ice free over winter. Once open water at the surface allows the Ocean to straify in the same way as all other oceans then we will see impacts on Ocean currents feeding /fed by the basin and knock on effects on Atmospheric circulation.

     

    We could see the polar jat disappear and the sub-trop jet swing north to compensate allowing a rapid expansion of the tropics and the desert belts these coundaries dictate. this would bring instant impact to grain growing regions with some seeing a permanent state of drought.

     

    It would also allow those who doubt AGW because of claims of a british Med like climate to be satisfied as temps rapidly change along with the circulation tweaks (at least in the SE?)

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    It would also allow those who doubt AGW because of claims of a british Med like climate to be satisfied as temps rapidly change along with the circulation tweaks (at least in the SE?)

    I don't think anyone doubts what might happen or at least they shouldn't. For me it's just a case of poor figures and observations that make me think they are well wide of the mark.

    The thing I've never had answered on here is this..... What exactly do we need to do as individuals? Personally I don't think I can do any more. We don't have green candidates in our area so can only vote in the usual parties either.

     

    The way you word things makes me wonder what it is that you do differently to myself? Even if I agreed with you 100% of the time (and believe it or not I'm actually not that far away), exactly what the heck are we supposed to do.....? No if's and and's or but's, How do we solve the problem in your eyes? In anyone's eye's even? There has to be a master plan you keep hiding from us.  I can even imagine you tutting away as you read through stuff.  

     

    What is this practical plan?  I'm not asking for what you'd do in a dream world.  Us so called unbelievers/deniers/insert latest buzz word are waiting and wondering, if this is all true, why are we all still at the point of waiting for world leaders to take note and act?  What is it that you have to offer to start doing something now, without the condescending approach as though someone being a 'denier' would stop a majority from doing anything?

     

    I have no answers and yet I see very little being done.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    The only answer I have is 'survive what is coming P.P.

     

    We are not going to stop, or moderate the use of fossil fuels (and at the end of the day they will tell us 'we' demanded it and that there was no other option).

     

    We are only seeing around 50% of the potential forcing already aloft in our atmosphere (for the next thousand years or so) so even if we stopped polluting tomorrow we are still set to see major, impacting, changes over the coming 50yrs.

     

    If we do see major impacts on the fabric of modern day society (food shortages/energy shortages/financial collapse), or extreme changes to our weather patterns, the best you can have is a plan to survive such.

     

    The period after such upheavals must see a change to the way society orders itself (it did after Tambora) and I feel that a farer society will emerge with a much greater chance of surviving the full impacts of the coming climate shift (with the help of modern advances in technology ,medicine,agriculture and communications).

     

    Are we all Moses? will we never get to set foot in the promised land? Some of us will......

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    The only answer I have is 'survive what is coming P.P.

     

    We are not going to stop, or moderate the use of fossil fuels (and at the end of the day they will tell us 'we' demanded it and that there was no other option).

     

     

     

    I have more faith in mankind. If we saw real changes I'm sure globally we would respond and quickly. It might be marginally  'too late' in some areas but respond we would.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I don't think you get it stew? it's not a 'switch off' issue. we have plenty of trouble already stored up and working it's way into the climate system right now. Do you see us stopping all fossil fuel use tomorrow? No , I didn't think so  so that's even more problems each and every day that passes with inaction.

     

    I have faith in that the Greedy Lying B(fatherless children)s to do what they can do which is continue on ,as is, for as long as possible.

     

    By the time you see your 'proof', in terms of directly linkable climate disasters, it will be way to late (and the 'disaster' you desire will be the tip of the onrushing iceberg) can you not understand that?

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  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales
  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales

    Have any studies been done on long-term changes in the extent/thickness of the Arctic ice in winter? If so, has any direct correlation been found between them and changes in the solar cycle / any other factors?

     

    What bile?

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  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I have more faith in mankind. If we saw real changes I'm sure globally we would respond and quickly. It might be marginally  'too late' in some areas but respond we would.

     

    Well...........

     

    Thames Barrier engineer says second defence needed

    A civil engineer who was part of the project management team which completed the Thames Barrier has said a new river defence should be planned urgently.

    Dr Richard Bloore said the south-east London barrier, opened in 1982, was not designed to factor in global warming.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-20904885
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  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Another stereotypical outpouring of bile, and that's the edited version.

     

     

    Why is that bile and not the stupid one liners you and your followers cook up without a shred of evidence apart from quoting the loonies? And you talk of stereotypical, it;s almost a Tom Lehrer moment.

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