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Model Output Discussion 12z 20/04/13


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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Frost

Recm1442.gif

Frost

Recm1921.gif

 

Recm2161.gif

 

 

More frost

Recm2401.gif

 

 

Daytime should be bright and pleasant though.wink.png

 

ECM mean goes for a cooler outlook than GFS but both neither are looking particularly dry & warm

test8.gif

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Frost

Recm1442.gif

Frost

Recm1921.gif

 

Recm2161.gif

 

 

More frost

Recm2401.gif

 

 

Daytime should be bright and pleasant though.wink.png

Blimey, frosts in April & May. Better consult the record books!

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

Blimey, frosts in April & May. Better consult the record books!

At this range I suspect that the records will need to be consulted for interest only as an arctic blast is hardly uncommon at this time of the year. Frost is not unusual in late April even down south and far from exceptional in early May.

There is however quite some support from the ECM. It looks like there will be a cold blast at least for Saturday and potentially for a bit longer if the GFS is taken at face value. Although as I said the ECM offers support it seems to want to push the mid Atlantic hight towards SW parts which reduces and moderates the northerly flow early in that week. At this range, it's anyone's guess who is right although the ECM is not giving us a heat wave that's for sure.

Btw just had my 10th air frost this month. Dunno if that's some kind of April record?

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

This is typical for end April/early May. I remember this last year at this stage - the first week was quite cool, and the nights were cold - going to be damaging for the spring growth though.

 

Hopefully the first full week of May looks warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

At this range I suspect that the records will need to be consulted for interest only as an arctic blast is hardly uncommon at this time of the year. Frost is not unusual in late April even down south and far from exceptional in early May.

There is however quite some support from the ECM. It looks like there will be a cold blast at least for Saturday and potentially for a bit longer if the GFS is taken at face value. Although as I said the ECM offers support it seems to want to push the mid Atlantic hight towards SW parts which reduces and moderates the northerly flow early in that week. At this range, it's anyone's guess who is right although the ECM is not giving us a heat wave that's for sure.

Btw just had my 10th air frost this month. Dunno if that's some kind of April record?

Sorry WB, perhaps the irony was lost somewhat. It was more about one of the arch-coldies re-appearing because a few charts showed the potential of a frost. I agree hardly unusual at this time of the year, especially as a couple of the posted charts would have indicated too much wind anyway.

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Guest pjl20101

Saw the CPC charts (6-10 days and 8-14 days) and it has begun to be more like a slack pattern with it being not as windy. Nonetheless it won't be brilliantly warm or hot considering the airstream direction.

Where is snow king just out of interest tonight? As I hate to say it but I'm agreeing with his summer prospects with the sceuro set up for it.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

I'm a little confused by my SW Met office this morning , It says mostly cloudy all week , with max of 15 deg .. This is at odds with most of the Models , For example the GFS has been consistent with maxes 16-18 deg and sunshine ... I think they have it wrong for most of our area for Tomorrow and most of Wednesday . Broken cloud at most , It is even bright and sunny right now .. Does anybody have access to decent cloud cover charts , I can never understand them weather online ones ?

 

I found this link below , and that shows what I actually expect , in other words Sunshine until Wed evening . 

 

http://www.bigsalty.co.uk/Cloud-Cover-Forecast-Charts.php

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A north/south split this week with the south warming up and becoming settled for a time but the north remaining cooler and cloudier with a little rain, eventually by the end of the week we will all be in it together with a cooler spell spreading to all areas once a band of rain has cleared southeast. Looking at next weekend, only the navgem 00z shows a very showery weekend (especially sunday) with unstable polar air covering the uk, the gfs, ecm, gem and ukmo make a lot more of an atlantic ridge toppling southeast across the uk during the weekend so after a cool and showery friday and early saturday, the weekend then improves with drier and sunnier conditions but cold enough for overnight frosts, this is only a brief respite though because once the ridge has subsided, a trough to the northwest brings the showery weather back to all areas and as the trough pushes further east to the north of the uk, we remain locked in a cold and showery northerly flow with high pressure building north in the atlantic, it looks a locked in pattern for a while but the gfs 00z shows a gradual warm up through FI with the weather becoming anticyclonic and temps returning to average but cold nights with slight air frosts into early may. 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Saw the CPC charts (6-10 days and 8-14 days) and it has begun to be more like a slack pattern with it being not as windy. Nonetheless it won't be brilliantly warm or hot considering the airstream direction.

Where is snow king just out of interest tonight? As I hate to say it but I'm agreeing with his summer prospects with the sceuro set up for it.

hi pj

Forgive me asking but I assume you are aware when you comment about wind strength and temperature levels that the charts are for 500mb?

It is not that simple to equate one to the other which is why I ask.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Hi everyone. Here is the morning look at the midnight charts from the outputs of GFS, UKMO< GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday April 22nd 2013.

All models
show a Westerly flow across the UK. A warm front in the flow will cross East over the UK today with some rain for most, chiefly towards the North and West. A moist WSW airflow then follows over England and Wales while a slow moving front straddles Northern Britain from tonight through till around Thursday with some outbreaks of rain, heavier for a time after midweek before it moves South bringing a change to polar air and sunshine and showers by the weekend replacing the warm and muggy conditions over Southern Britain midweek.

GFS then shows a very showery Saturday with some heavy and thundery downpours in places especially in the afternoon. Sunday will see less showers as a ridge moves SE before a new low brings a similar evolution over the first few days of next week with the risk of overnight frost and snow over Scottish mountains a real threat. Very slowly through the rest of the week the cold air is dissolved out as Low pressure sinks South West of the UK with higher pressure for the UK with sunny spells and generally dry weather developing though nights could still be very chilly for a time. Late in the run the weather settles into an Easterly flow, especially in the South with some bright or sunny spells in the West but some cold and chilly onshore winds in the East. The best conditions with some long warm sunny spells would be most likely for NW Britain.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a colder outlier in the well supported rather cold phase of the run with a trend towards more average uppers by the end of the run. Precipitation is highest during the chilly phase supporting the evolution of cold Low pressure domination this weekend and early next week.

The Jet Stream suggest the flow over the Atlantic and SE over the UK weakens steadily over the coming days before the flow troughs South to the West of the UK and then turns North to the East of us early next week underlining the thoughts of a UK cold trough at that time.

UKMO today shows next weekend as a chilly one with a chill North wind and showers on Saturday giving way to drier conditions on Sunday before new Low pressure from the North arrives early next week. Saturday night looks favoured for a very cold night with widespread frost from this synoptic pattern.

GEM is less supportive of the second push of colder air next week, instead opting for the second Low to stay further North and keeping winds from a more NW direction and modifying the strength of any cold while keeping the risk of showers in the North before the pattern collapses to a more SW flow at the end of it's run in response to low pressure sinking South through the Atlantic.

NAVGEM on the other hand keeps the cold theme going into next week as the second phase shows the Low pressure sinking SE over the UK with rather cold cyclonic winds keeping unsettled and showery weather going well into the middle and end to next week.

ECM shows a classic Spring pattern of the Atlantic blocked by High pressure with Low pressure just East of the UK and a cold and showery Northerly flow over the UK developing after the innitial cold surge at the coming weekend. It shows no quick route out of the rather cold conditions and the inevitable unseasonal frosts at night.

In Summary although day to day changes in the charts are commonplace the pattern remains the same of a change to rather cold and showery conditions for the weekend and what looks to be much of next week too. For many the colder conditions will be nothing more than an inconvenience with some compensation paid back by some bright sunny intervals between the showers. However, farmers and growers will be less impressed to see yet another period of rather cold Spring conditions on the horizon with the risk of snow returning to Northern hills slowing down germination especially in the North and more importantly the threat of frosts that are likely almost anywhere at times from this weekend on.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The end of this week shows a significant drop in temperatures especially for the south

 

21c on Thursday

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

The same spots which hit 21c on Thursday struggle to hit double figures at the same time on Friday

 

ukmaxtemp.png

 

The ensembles show the operational is a cold outlier but non the less it still looks like turning cooler with a risk of frost's just about anywhere during this coming weekend

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Whoah...what a drop!

Will May start warm or more of the same?

it may start cold if the gfs and ecm 00z verifysmile.png Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Day 6 (Sunday) Might be a day to watch the 6z continues with the theme of a ridge , with +10 covering France and temps responding accordingly . Any push further North with them uppers and wee could see a very nice day indeed . 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A week of cruel contrasts ahead from the gfs 06z with southern england warming up to 19c by tomorrow but then nudging to 20-21c through wed/thurs and the best of this weeks sunshine will be across southern england. Further north and west across england and wales will become progressively cooler and more cloudy but for most of southern britain there will be some pleasantly warm sunshine, especially to the lee of high ground with some shelter from the westerly breeze. Scotland and N.ireland will be much cooler and breezier/windier with occasional showers and outbreaks of rain. There is a risk of heavy showers in the south/se on thursday as pressure falls and the south will still be in the warm/humid airmass but then a band of more persistent rain will spread southeast to reach the south on thursday night and friday, further north and west on friday it looks cool and showery with fresh nw'ly winds. On saturday, a weak atlantic ridge topples southeast which would kill or at least significantly reduce the showers risk and bring a sunnier but cool day to the south of the uk but more showery by sunday into next week and very cool/rather cold with overnight slight frosts.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The 00z ENS continues to show high pressure building during early May

 

Rz500m12.gifRz500m13.gifRz500m15.gifRz500m16.gif

 

This ties in nicely with the thoughts from the met office

 

There are signs of warmer, more settled conditions becoming established across the UK at the beginning of May.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?p=2684315

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

ECM mean points towards winds staying more northwesterly rather than northerly with high pressure showing signs of building towards the southwest of the UK at day 10. If the mean is anything to go by we arent yet looking at a dreadfully cool start to May like recent years but temperatures still will be often below average. All the more reason to make use of the warm sunshine in the coming week although with a troublesome trough straddled across central parts.

 

Next Sunday has the potential to be a decent day with a weak ridge of high pressure nosing in raising temperatures into the mid teens.

 

Rtavn15617.png

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Interesting 6z ENS mean. Following a rather nice day next Sunday low pressure moves in. However the mean trough position looks to be over the west of the UK meaning winds could even turn southerly for eastern parts with temperatures holding up at average values. Later on high pressure once agan builds strongly with southern and western parts favoured for warmth.

 

Rz500m7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

6z ensembles showing no sign of a cold spell with 1 day of slightly below average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM Birmingham ensemble shows a clear drop in temperatures from the 26th to 3rd May from the 4th temperatures start to recover once more to around the average of 15c

 

Coleshill_15dayts_Tmax_22042013_00_D+XX.

 

Precipitation remains low through-out

 

Coleshill_15dayts_Rain_22042013_00_D+XX.

 

The GFS 06z London ensemble says no more a less to any cold spell with just a one day blip

 

MT8_London_ens.png

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Patterns
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.

The colder uppers start creeping into the UK on the 23rd.

 

http://www.meteociel...1&ech=30&size=2

 

Then its just downhill from there!

 

http://www.meteociel...1&ech=54&size=2

 

http://www.meteociel...1&ech=78&size=2

 

http://www.meteociel...&ech=102&size=2

 

http://www.meteociel...&ech=126&size=2

 

Into FI the NAVGEM and the BOM showing colder than the rest but overall not great.

 

http://www.meteociel...&ech=126&size=2

 

http://www.meteociel...&ech=174&size=2

 

Combined with a cool northerly we'll all be needing our hats and coats on.

 

http://www.meteociel...&ech=102&size=2

 

 

Really really hoping for a definate warm up soon as i'm getting a bit fed up with the cooler weather now!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

yet again we have folk looking at the same period and managing to 'show' differing conlusions-beats me how you do it folks?

Edited by johnholmes
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