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Met Office - Why was the start of spring so cold


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Interesting, although many of the factors discussed are really just different ways of saying it was cold. Not all of the "explanations" are cause and effect type explanations, some are pattern explanations and I find those unsatisfying. You can't make predictions from patterns alone, if you don't understand what might cause a pattern to appear or change suddenly (as it seems to be doing over North America at present time).

     

    There is irony too in being subtly lectured by the Met Office that the subject is complex and not given to easy explanations. Perhaps they should have thought of that before buying into what NW rather over-cautiously edits to read "even larger teapot" around 2006.

     

    My goodness, we live in timid overly p.c. times, don't we? Try translating this into English:

     

    The noted American forecaster Joe Bastardi recently said global warming and even larger teapot were "a crock of super duper.:"

     

    Ha ha, bet you can't tell what I said.

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    Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors
    There have been some suggestions that the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, especially during 

    summer, is responsible for this year’s cold  spring. It is argued

    that amplification of global 

    warming  over  the  Arctic  is  reducing  the  equator  to  pole  temperature  gradient,  thereby 

    weakening  the  strength  of  the  mid-latitude  jet  streams.  In  turn  this  may  lead  to  slower 

    progression  of  upper-level  waves  and  would  cause  associated  weather  patterns  in  mid-latitudes  to  be  more  persistent,  potentially  leading  to  an  increased  probability  of  extreme 

    weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, 

    and heat waves. 

    This  hypothesis  remains  contentious, however,  and  there  is  little  evidence  from  the 

    comparison  between  the  cold  spring  of  1962  and  this  year  that  the  Arctic  has  been  a 

    contributory  factor  in  terms  of  the  hypothesis  proposed  above.  Figure  13  shows  the  midtroposphere  temperature  anomalies  for  1962  and  2013;  over  the  Arctic  they  are  almost 

    identical and reflect the negative NAO pattern.  It is hard to argue that Arctic amplification had 

    changed  the  equator to pole  temperature  in  a  systematic  way  to  aff ect the  circulation this 

    spring.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Interesting, although many of the factors discussed are really just different ways of saying it was cold. Not all of the "explanations" are cause and effect type explanations, some are pattern explanations and I find those unsatisfying. You can't make predictions from patterns alone, if you don't understand what might cause a pattern to appear or change suddenly (as it seems to be doing over North America at present time).

     

    There is irony too in being subtly lectured by the Met Office that the subject is complex and not given to easy explanations. Perhaps they should have thought of that before buying into what NW rather over-cautiously edits to read "even larger teapot" around 2006.

     

    My goodness, we live in timid overly p.c. times, don't we? Try translating this into English:

     

    The noted American forecaster Joe laminate floori recently said global warming and even larger teapot were "a crock of onions.:"

     

    Ha ha, bet you can't tell what I said.

     

    Joe basta'rdi

     

    But the swear filter always puts it as Joe laminate floori

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Then you'll not like the 'modern polar jet's' influence in forming SSW's Four....cutting edge stuf..... where as , it appears, unless it's dismissing AGW it has to have been accepted science for over 70yrs for you to grudgingly give it credence.......

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    Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

    Well, I do think it is hard to interpret
    "there  is  little  evidence  from  the 

    comparison  between  the  cold  spring  of  1962  and  this  year  that  the  Arctic  has  been  a 
    contributory  factor"
    in the way you have been doing across multiple forums.
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    Guest pjl20101

    I kind of support with what Stewart rampling aka glacier point said a lot more than Joe b, then again Stewarts presentations were longer and to be fair he was correct to be suspicious about march when the hp initially was over us retrogressed towards the arctic. I still respect him, the met office and chionomaniac for their expert analysis on things. If anything Joe has made some mistakes of his own saying we would have a barbecue summer of 2010 when august was naff, yet he didn't explain what went wrong wheras Stewart would and thus have more respect for him.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Seems a fair and balanced piece by the Met Office.

    It's not created to appeal to experts, so I don't think we should expect too much detail.

     

    Why Joe B's name is getting dragged into this I don't know...

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    Guest pjl20101

    Seems a fair and balanced piece by the Met Office.

    It's not created to appeal to experts, so I don't think we should expect too much detail.

    Why Joe B's name is getting dragged into this I don't know...

    We aren't saying that we dislike Joe b bftv, we are just commenting on the fact that he appears to be a bit like a person who is denying global warming. It does exist as the sea ice cover is still collapsing in the arctic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    We aren't saying that we dislike Joe b bftv, we are just commenting on the fact that he appears to be a bit like a person who is denying global warming. It does exist as the sea ice cover is still collapsing in the arctic.

     

    I don't mind if ye dislike Joe B or not.

    I just think that Joe B is so far off the level of GP and the Met Office, that comparisons are almost pointless!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    If so, as someone in the Ecology Trade (who has immense respect for Glacier Point incidentally), I would like point out a few errors on the webpages mentioned above:

    PPS9 was withdrawn last year with the production of the NPPF;

    The Institute of Ecology and Environmental Managers should be the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management;

    Phase I and II are not part of the NVC as is inferred although the NVC can form part of a Phase II survey. Phase I is a JNCC methodology for mapping vegetation types. NVC is a statistical programme describing British plant communities.

    Website needs updating methinks.

    Weather is bit boring at the mo - I guess this is why we end up talking about Joe B and the Met Office's little missive......

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    I'm fairly sure this article was linked and discussed by several folk on here a little while ago.

    Maybe one of the experts in tracking items can oblige with the original and link the two please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    I'm fairly sure this article was linked and discussed by several folk on here a little while ago.

    Maybe one of the experts in tracking items can oblige with the original and link the two please?

     

    I think that might be some interview with Julia Slingo that was in a few papers early this month.

     

    Daily Mail, so beware! http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2307333/Is-UK-heading-Arctic-winters-Met-Office-calls-urgent-meeting-discuss-melting-ice-causing-Britain-freeze.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I don't mind if ye dislike Joe B or not.

    I just think that Joe B is so far off the level of GP and the Met Office, that comparisons are almost pointless!

    Oh the irony, it's ok to slag professionals off if they don't follow the religion but as soon as anyone calls one of the proponents of AGW they are frowned upon. IMO there is no correlation between March's cold spell and arctic sea ice last summer, cold March's aren't unusual just as hot July's aren't.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Oh the irony, it's ok to slag professionals off if they don't follow the religion but as soon as anyone calls one of the proponents of AGW they are frowned upon. IMO there is no correlation between March's cold spell and arctic sea ice last summer, cold March's aren't unusual just as hot July's aren't.

     

    I didn't slag anyone off and I didn't mention the Arctic.

    Grow up and stop trying to pick fights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I didn't slag anyone off and I didn't mention the Arctic.

    Grow up and stop trying to pick fights.

    So saying he's way off the level isn't slagging him off then? As for arctic ice, no you didn't say that but many are.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    So saying he's way off the level isn't slagging him off then? As for arctic ice, no you didn't say that but many are.

     

    I've never seen or heard Joe B demonstrate a technical understanding of meteorology or LRFs that even comes close to that shown by GP and the MO. But many times Joe B has demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of basic physics.

    If you have any videos or articles that show I'm wrong and Joe B has technical knowledge and understanding that challenge the best, then by all means to post them up.

     

    Nobody has posted their opinion about the link between the Arctic and the March cold in this thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    I've never seen or heard Joe B demonstrate a technical understanding of meteorology or LRFs that even comes close to that shown by GP and the MO. But many times Joe B has demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of basic physics.

    If you have any videos or articles that show I'm wrong and Joe B has technical knowledge and understanding that challenge the best, then by all means to post them up.

     

    Nobody has posted their opinion about the link between the Arctic and the March cold in this thread.

    I would agree on comparing Joe with GP but not the MetO, he's just as much in the know as any of the MetO's finest. I mean lets face it how many times have the MetO come out with ridiculous comments regarding Meditteranan plants and snow in the UK becoming rarer. Back on topic, this Spring certainly has been cold up until now but I wouldn't say it was all that unusual, apart from the severity of snow in March that is.
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    Guest pjl20101

    I totally support sceptical inquirer and bftv on this. Even though you've disagreed with each other you have addressed your points elequoently well. The met office did a fair and balanced assessment, also a scientific assessment too.

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    we are always going to get a cold spring in fact wasnt 2006 quite cold or 1986didnt it have coldest feb and still counting for 60 years,cold march,coldest april and still counting for 90 years and even a cold summer,that wasnt the ice cap melting or was it the jetstream no in the 80s it was el nineo which we have all forgot about.porsonally we only need  a cool solar period or a volcano or both and the ice caps will be sending a glacier down the thames

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    The thing that really gets my goat is the fact any unusual weather event is being linked to the lack of Arctic ice, Greenland blocking in Summer, blocking in the winter, persistent cold at lower latitudes all being blamed on lack of Arctic ice yet the reason why they are probably saying this is because the retreating Arctic ice is down to warming of the globe. 

     

    Perhaps just perhaps its just natural variation and if conditions in the upper stratosphere like SSW are favorable then some sort of blocking is likely to occur no matter how much sea ice there is! 

     

    Personally I think its embarrassing that a few years of cold, we are all going down the route winters are likely to be more snowy and blocked because of global warming yet I remember being told that make the most of the snow now because its going become harder to get snow in this country due to global warming. 

     

    You can't have it both ways and all it tells me that long range weather forecasting will ALWAYS be difficult, who knows what effect on weather patterns an ice free Arctic will have, it may not even alter the weather patterns all that much at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    I'm surprised there wasn't more mention of the AO which was very significantly -ve during March

    Yes, but the AO is just a reflection of other factors.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Yes, but the AO is just a reflection of other factors.

    Which only begs the question why was it so -ve. Most of the discussion was about the NAO, why did those factors cause the AO to be so -ve, more so than the NAO. According to NOAA, the NAO for March 2013 was less -ve than March 2005 but the AO was the most -ve on record for March. Which says to me that the AO had more impact than the NAO as with regards to last month.

    Why is the question I'm asking.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    The thing that really gets my goat is the fact any unusual weather event is being linked to the lack of Arctic ice, Greenland blocking in Summer, blocking in the winter, persistent cold at lower latitudes all being blamed on lack of Arctic ice yet the reason why they are probably saying this is because the retreating Arctic ice is down to warming of the globe. 

     

    Perhaps just perhaps its just natural variation and if conditions in the upper stratosphere like SSW are favorable then some sort of blocking is likely to occur no matter how much sea ice there is! 

     

    Personally I think its embarrassing that a few years of cold, we are all going down the route winters are likely to be more snowy and blocked because of global warming yet I remember being told that make the most of the snow now because its going become harder to get snow in this country due to global warming. 

     

    You can't have it both ways and all it tells me that long range weather forecasting will ALWAYS be difficult, who knows what effect on weather patterns an ice free Arctic will have, it may not even alter the weather patterns all that much at all.

     

    Except the Met Office didn't make the link between them, mentioned it as a possible factor, but said there wasn't enough evidence.

     

    Saying any event is being linked to Arctic ice is a bit of a ridiculous exaggeration too.

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