ne australia Tropical Cyclone Zane

[Somerset Squall]

A late season tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea. Tropical Cyclone Zane has sustained winds of 35kts, and is characterised by a small, well defined LLC with a decent amount of centralised convection. In the last few hours, banding features have started to take shape. Shear is low over Zane, so the cyclone should strengthen over the next day or two. Strong subtropical ridging to the south is expected to push Zane westwards quite quickly towards the Cape York Peninsula, so Zane only has about 36hrs to strengthen before landfall near Cape Grenville. Exact landfall location is subject to change of course, but a westward track is very likely to verify given the strength of the ridge to the south.

 

[summer blizzard]

Will it die after landfall or do they survive?

[Somerset Squall]

Zane has rapidly intensified to 60kts. Zane has developed an eye, flanked by banding. The rapid intensification is down to the fact that Zane is quite small and is in a region of low shear and superb outflow. Further rapid strengthening is likely as Zane moves towards the Cape York Peninsula. Zane is likely to survive the trip over land SB, but conditions in the Gulf of Carpentaria are not favourable so Zane will likely dissipate as it reaches the western half of the Gulf.

Edited April 30, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Zane reached a 65kt intensity this afternoon, but has since weakened back to 60kts. Shear has risen to moderate levels, ending the rapid intensification phase. Zane could strengthen a little more as the shear isn't destructively high, before landfall on the Cape York Peninsula (CYP). Shear levels are pretty high in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, so re-strengthening is not expected when Zane reaches here after crossing the CYP.

Edited April 30, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Styx]

Apparently will be the latest severe tropical cyclone to cross the Queensland coast in 43 years.  By 'severe' , I  assume that means TC intensity 2 or above.

[Somerset Squall]

A severe tropical cyclone is a term used by BOM to classify cyclones cat 3 and above on the Australian scale. So it doesn't look like Zane will make it as shear is now weakening the cyclone. Convection is shearing off the LLC, and winds are down to 55kts according to JTWC. Landfall not far off now.

Edited May 1, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Zane has been destroyed by shear well before landfall. The LLC is quickly unravelling and the remaining convection is far removed from this centre. The system has been declared a remnant low because of this, and re-generation is not expected.