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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Cyclone 24S has formed nearly 700 nautical miles east of Diego Garcia. At just 6 degrees south, 24S is the northernmost tropical cyclone formation this year in the South Indian Ocean, by some margin. The cyclone has sustained winds of 35kts, and a healthy amount of convection over the LLC, with formative banding features taking shape. 24S is being affected by moderate shear but is being helped by robust upper level outflow, which has aided the consolidation of the cyclone in the less than ideal shear environment. Moderate shear is expected to persist over the coming days, slowing intensification. 24S is expected to drift south whilst slowly intensifying before making a more definite turn to the west as ridging to the south builds. 24S is not expected to approach land.

     

    sh2413.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    24S has slowly strengthened as expected. Intensity is up to 45kts. Moderate to strong shear continues to be offset by very good outflow. The marginal environment is expected to persist over the next day, allowing for some slow strengthening. Beyond 24hrs, shear could ease, at least temporarily. At this stage, JTWC are forecasting 24S to peak at 70kts before shear rises again.

     

    24S is drifting south. The west turn is still expected, but timing is uncertain due to poor model agreement.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    24S was given the name Jamala this morning by MeteoFrance, but the cyclone is struggling at the moment. The shear is quite strong currently, and Jamala looks rather dishevelled on satellite imagery. Sustained winds have decreased to 40kts, and strengthening doesn't look likely in the near term, though the shear is still expected to eventually ease.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Shear has gotten the better of Jamala. The LLC has been devoid of convection since this afternoon and has unravelled significantly. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance have issued their final warnings. Even if shear eases, the remnant low of Jamala will probably be too weak to regenerate.

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