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Storm Risk Saturday 11th May 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Simple format GFS overview chart shows this for later today:

     

    18_20.gif

     

    Aviation mid-level significant weather has the jet stream pounding in on us:

     

    PGNE14_CL.gif

     

    GFS showing small levels of Cape later in central and Eastern England: 

     

    gfs_cape_eur18.png

     

    gfs_icape_eur18.png

     

    gfs_spout_eur18.png

     

    and some convergence out over East Anglia and the Humber:

     

    gfs_layer_eur18.png

     

    A bit of rain out there at the same time:

     

    gfs_prec_eur18.png

     

    Lifting condensation level 

     

    gfs_lfc_eur18.png

     

    and some healthy lapse rates across the middle of the country:

     

    gfs_lapse2_eur18.png

     

    Something helical to watch out for as well?

     

    gfs_stp_eur18.png

     

    gfs_pw_eur18.png

     

    Forecast Skew -T for Cambridge at 18.00 hrs:

     

    sounding5.curr.1800lst.d2.png

    Dew points are up at that time:

     

    sfcdewpt.curr.1800lst.d2.body.png

     

    CU potential:

     

    zsfclcldif.curr.1800lst.d2.body.png

     

    So maybe the Central area through the Midlands and then into East Anglia somewhere to watch later this afternoon??

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    Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

    Looking very showery in ireland already (all of ireland covered in heavy showers so it seems)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Bloke on metweather is saying chance of supercells and a tornado watch for SE. Can't see this in my opinion. Thundery showers at the most I think

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    worth baring in mind though, if it's Keithy Joe you're referring to, he's certainly amongst the learned!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    worth baring in mind though, if it's Keithy Joe you're referring to, he's certainly amongst the learned!

    Indeed, as a Met Monkey member with 6,000+ posts, he knows his stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Storms...Did I mention Storms?
  • Location: Bridgnorth, Shropshire, WV16

    I hope someone gets something, at least we will have something to talk about and radar watch.

     

    Just showers here in Bridgnorth

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    just realised that it was a couple of years ago we had the surface based monster in Staffs.....what a storm that was!! 

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69498-violent-thunderstorm-videos-stillspenkridge-090511/

     

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69502-thunderstorm-development-130x-speed-time-lapse-3-hours-hd-1080p/

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    just realised that it was a couple of years ago we had the surface based monster in Staffs.....what a storm that was!! 

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69498-violent-thunderstorm-videos-stillspenkridge-090511/

     

     

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69502-thunderstorm-development-130x-speed-time-lapse-3-hours-hd-1080p/

     

     

    I reminded you on the 9th in SW thread

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    I reminded you on the 9th in SW thread

    sorry Mark, must have missed it, what with my active social life....lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)

    moderate to heavy showers here interspersed with strong sunny intervals. Thinking there could be something interesting happening later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)

    First sferics heard, over 20 miles away though i'd say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    Woohoo! Closest I have been all year so far! Decent hail then torrential rain for about 10 minutes with lightning recorded a few miles away! biggrin.png

     

    EDIT: More hail! :D

     

    DSC_0822_zps13964cd1.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #017
    ISSUED: 1100UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
    LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND
    BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

    IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 1800UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

    ONCOMING JET MAX INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PROMOTING ORGANISED CONVECTION

    DISCUSSION:
    THERE IS SUFFICIENT MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AREAS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD, INSTABILITY IS GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER WHERE A COMBINATION OF INCREASING DLS, AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL WIND VEER MAY COMBINE TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODES. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSSED FORCING PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATCH AREAS. THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ORGANISING OVER LAND IS MODEST, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED, PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

     

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    First sferics heard, over 20 miles away though i'd say.

    Yeah will be the one that passed S of here on the radar. Interesting sky on the S horizon at the time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #017

    ISSUED: 1100UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

    SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:

    LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

    BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

    IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 1800UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

    ONCOMING JET MAX INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PROMOTING ORGANISED CONVECTION

    DISCUSSION:

    THERE IS SUFFICIENT MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AREAS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD, INSTABILITY IS GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER WHERE A COMBINATION OF INCREASING DLS, AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL WIND VEER MAY COMBINE TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODES. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSSED FORCING PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATCH AREAS. THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ORGANISING OVER LAND IS MODEST, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED, PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

    http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

    Why it ALWAYS the E and SE just recently?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)

    yes, good signs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, 53.36, -2.84, (29M ASL)

    but not about the E and SE!

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    Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

    So dark here at the moment! Mammatus too! 

    mammatus_zps4a67546a.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    So dark here at the moment! Mammatus too! 

    mammatus_zps4a67546a.jpg

    Lovely pic!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

    Desperately hoping something heads this way. Currently actually very pleasant out there here, with some sunshine and blue sky!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Desperately hoping something heads this way.

    Aren't we always?

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