Storm Risk Saturday 11th May 2013

[Coast]

Simple format GFS overview chart shows this for later today:

 

 

Aviation mid-level significant weather has the jet stream pounding in on us:

 

 

GFS showing small levels of Cape later in central and Eastern England: 

 

 

 

 

and some convergence out over East Anglia and the Humber:

 

 

A bit of rain out there at the same time:

 

 

Lifting condensation level 

 

 

and some healthy lapse rates across the middle of the country:

 

 

Something helical to watch out for as well?

 

 

 

Forecast Skew -T for Cambridge at 18.00 hrs:

 

Dew points are up at that time:

 

 

CU potential:

 

 

So maybe the Central area through the Midlands and then into East Anglia somewhere to watch later this afternoon??

[VillagePlank]

Heavy showers with hail, and possibly t/storms for SE later, today,

 

 

Small convective potential (K) leading to isolated t/storm cells (TT)

[NUT]

Looking very showery in ireland already (all of ireland covered in heavy showers so it seems)

[Bluebreezer54]

Well I am optimistically charging my camera batteries......thanks for the updates chaps

[lewisosd]

Bloke on metweather is saying chance of supercells and a tornado watch for SE. Can't see this in my opinion. Thundery showers at the most I think

[A.J]

worth baring in mind though, if it's Keithy Joe you're referring to, he's certainly amongst the learned!

[PolarWarsaw]

worth baring in mind though, if it's Keithy Joe you're referring to, he's certainly amongst the learned!

Indeed, as a Met Monkey member with 6,000+ posts, he knows his stuff.

[Kain]

I hope someone gets something, at least we will have something to talk about and radar watch.

 

Just showers here in Bridgnorth

[A.J]

just realised that it was a couple of years ago we had the surface based monster in Staffs.....what a storm that was!! 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69498-violent-thunderstorm-videos-stillspenkridge-090511/

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69502-thunderstorm-development-130x-speed-time-lapse-3-hours-hd-1080p/

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just realised that it was a couple of years ago we had the surface based monster in Staffs.....what a storm that was!! 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69498-violent-thunderstorm-videos-stillspenkridge-090511/

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69502-thunderstorm-development-130x-speed-time-lapse-3-hours-hd-1080p/

 

 

I reminded you on the 9th in SW thread

[A.J]

I reminded you on the 9th in SW thread

sorry Mark, must have missed it, what with my active social life....lol

[Chris.R]

moderate to heavy showers here interspersed with strong sunny intervals. Thinking there could be something interesting happening later.

[Chris.R]

First sferics heard, over 20 miles away though i'd say.

[Convective]

Woohoo! Closest I have been all year so far! Decent hail then torrential rain for about 10 minutes with lightning recorded a few miles away!

 

EDIT: More hail!

 

[Stuart]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #017
ISSUED: 1100UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND
BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 1800UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

ONCOMING JET MAX INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PROMOTING ORGANISED CONVECTION

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS SUFFICIENT MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AREAS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD, INSTABILITY IS GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER WHERE A COMBINATION OF INCREASING DLS, AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL WIND VEER MAY COMBINE TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODES. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSSED FORCING PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATCH AREAS. THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ORGANISING OVER LAND IS MODEST, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED, PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Cheshire Freeze]

First sferics heard, over 20 miles away though i'd say.

Yeah will be the one that passed S of here on the radar. Interesting sky on the S horizon at the time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #017

ISSUED: 1100UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:

LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - EAST ANGLIA & SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 1800UTC SATURDAY 11TH MAY 2013

ONCOMING JET MAX INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PROMOTING ORGANISED CONVECTION

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS SUFFICIENT MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AREAS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD, INSTABILITY IS GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER WHERE A COMBINATION OF INCREASING DLS, AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL WIND VEER MAY COMBINE TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR SUPERCELL MODES. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSSED FORCING PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATCH AREAS. THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION ORGANISING OVER LAND IS MODEST, THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED, PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Why it ALWAYS the E and SE just recently?!

[Chris.R]

yes, good signs.

[Chris.R]

but not about the E and SE!

[Paul]

Very active radar, some sferics coming through now, and probably more to come this pm.

 

 

Latest radar

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

[Convective]

So dark here at the moment! Mammatus too! 

[Panayiotis]

So dark here at the moment! Mammatus too! 

Lovely pic!

[Cloudwatcher]

Desperately hoping something heads this way. Currently actually very pleasant out there here, with some sunshine and blue sky!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Desperately hoping something heads this way.

Aren't we always?

[Stuart]

wed look good for storms and showers most of the uk but long way off yet