Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Paul]

New thread for the upcoming convective risk and storm potential during the next 7 days - individual threads will be opened for any higher risk days

[Convective]

Fantastic. Seeing lots of potential on Tuesday and Wednesday! As well as widespread thundery showers tomorrow!

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS keen on storms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

 

 

[stainesbloke]

Be great to see some storms this week, better if it warmed up! Not likely looking at the charts

[galacticwarrior]

From looking at the CAPE charts, my location is on the very border of the green and dark blue....typical..

[nitro_deluxe]

From looking at the CAPE charts, my location is on the very border of the green and dark blue....typical..

Wouldn't read too much into that galactic, you may well be beneath the other 'missing' ingredients for some cb activity/thunder.

[Supacell]

Looks like my 2013 storm chasing may get the chance to start next week. I hope so, haven't been on a storm chase since last August so i'm getting hungry.

[Convective]

I'll kick start this with my forecast for tomorrow 13/05/2013

 

[Supacell]

I really hope the GFS 00z is just having a wobble as it looks like this weeks convective possibilities have just been removed

 

Having said that, today may offer some surprises and estofex have the northern half of the UK in a slight risk of a storm

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Supacell]

An area of modest CAPE over Scotland pushes southwards today with some cross over of 40-60knts of DLS bringing a risk of organised storm activity. The main risk area appears to move south through the highlighted area through the afternoon, although further storms could develop over N Scotland through the late evening. Any stronger storms could bring with them hail, gusty winds and lightning wizard indicates the possibility of funnels too. Sleet and snow could also be possible in heavier showers, especially over higher ground. I don't think rain totals will be a problem today due to fast movement of any showers and storms, although some could receive numerous showers.

 

[Coast]

So, eyes to Western Scotland and the top half of Northern England today?

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS

 

A potent cyclonic vortex north of Scotland affects most parts of NW Europe and results in windy and unsettled conditions. A decaying mid-level trough over C-Europe reinforces the high over low blocking pattern over E-Europe. An extensive N-S aligned convergence zone over E-Europe remains the focus for scattered to widespread CI.

 

... UK, parts of the North Sea and Denmark ...

 

Diurnal driven convection is forecast mainly atop onshore areas, where heating beneath cold mid-levels assists in modest SBCAPE build-up. Weak LL shear and only a concentrated swath of cold EL temperatures and strong DLS (C-UK) exist, so stronger storms may contain marginal hail/sleet and strong wind gusts. Also, I don't want to rule out a few cold-core funnel (isolated short-lived tornado) reports. After sunset, convection rapidly decays over UK but sporadic storms may now occur over Denmark ... especially after midnight as mid-level temperatures start to crash.

 

 

Aviation weather chart for today has CB's over the tip of Scotland:

 

 

GFS weather overview shows thunderstorms but it doesn't happen until late afternoon and way over on the Eastern side:

 

 

Moderate levels of CAPE around Scotland this afternoon:

 

 

 

Big spout risk area off over the top of Scotland, maybe something for the Faroes?

 

 

Quite a few areas of convergence:

 

 

 

Steep lapse rates off the Eastern side of Scotland:

 

 

But a tornado risk area (blue) further to the South covering the Central Midlands?

 

 

 

Going to be gusty up there!

 

 

Lively old day then with the threat of rain, hail and maybe a rumble of thunder in Scotland (West to East as the day wears on) and maybe some tornado activity, but that could be anywhere in the Northern half of the country, even into the Midlands.

 

I think a bit of judicious use of the radar and satellites will guide us through the day.

[Coast]

Some Skew T forecast soundings for this afternoon:

Aberdeen:

 

 

(Looks OK)

 

Glasgow:

 

[Stuart]

Thanks coast I keep my eyes open for today

[Coast]

Thanks coast I keep my eyes open for today

 

You're going to be our number 1 spotter I reckon Stu! 

[NUT]

OOH! Looks like there lightning or something just to the north. Some interesting showers around already today everything but the kitchen sink quite literaly so far!

[toggerobz]

Small 1cm sized hail pellets falling here currently from a passing convective shower, some gusty winds for a time as the showers start to get going.

[NUT]

The winds are really packing a punch as these showers come along! Lordy! Fantastic skies at times today too

[Coast]

A few strikes now showing up on the free NW lightning detector:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

 

Looks to be around the right places although there is also some activity down in North Wales, which was further South than maybe forecast earlier:

 

[ItIsGee]

A few strikes now showing up on the free NW lightning detector:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

 

Look to be around the right places although there is also some activity down in North Wales, which was further South than maybe forecast earlier:

 

NW lightning detector.jpg

not too far from this but i cant get there

gutted

[NUT]

A few strikes now showing up on the free NW lightning detector:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

 

Look to be around the right places although there is also some activity down in North Wales, which was further South than maybe forecast earlier:

 

NW lightning detector.jpg

 

I am surprised there been no strikes here today as the skies at times have looked dramatic as the showers come in

[alr1970]

It seems God is a City fan, it's currently hailing hard with strong winds and occasional lightning at Old Trafford. I think I saw a CG strike on Beecham Tower in the city centre from my desk in Trafford Park. So far I've counted more thunder than I heard in this location in the whole of last year.

 

There's a reasonable accumulation of hail on the ground too. Temperature dropped from 10.5 to 5C in 10 minutes.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Pretty active cell there over southern Manchester- looks to have gone straight over Irlam, so Weather History might give a report soon from there soon.

 

He's posted one in the NW regional thread

[Cloudwatcher]

Sunshine and blue skys here atm, but can see convection happening to my east.

[toggerobz]

Thunder heard in Disley but the noise of the wind making hearing anything nigh-impossible. Lovely dark TCu off to the north where the cell is however.

[IanR]

It seems God is a City fan, it's currently hailing hard with strong winds and occasional lightning at Old Trafford. I think I saw a CG strike on Beecham Tower in the city centre from my desk in Trafford Park. So far I've counted more thunder than I heard in this location in the whole of last year. There's a reasonable accumulation of hail on the ground too. Temperature dropped from 10.5 to 5C in 10 minutes.

could hear this storm over here in wigan,sat out in the garden in bright warm sunshine, brilliant white bubbling cumolus over that way with very dark base, love days like this, its beetham tower btw (he says, correcting my own spelling as typing)