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Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

I think a few rumbles at the end of the Bristol channel sometime over the next few hours are possible. Bristol to Gloucester area...

 

Ooh next week looks beefy. No doubt it will be gone by then Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Convective
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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

For once i'm hoping NOT to see a storm, at least only for tomorrow. I'll be up around the Ladybower reservoir watching the BBMF Lancaster flypast and keeping my fingers crossed that convection holds off at least past 2pm.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

I think a few rumbles at the end of the Bristol channel sometime over the next few hours are possible. Bristol to Gloucester area...

 

Ooh next week looks beefy. No doubt it will be gone by then Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Just going to post that picture;) why couldn't it happen tomorrow:(

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Just going to post that picture;) why couldn't it happen tomorrow:(

 

It would be nice! :D Bit more widespread though please! 

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Unfortunately a rushed one tonight. Have to be up for exams tomorrow! Hopefully this seems about right... I am very tired Posted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire at 340 meters
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Humidity, Sun, Torrential Rain, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Cheshire at 340 meters

Sweet F all will happen here as per usual given the recent luck we have with things in this stormless hovel. I see that the CAPE has already been massively downgraded yet again, and at 8 degrees with a bunch of cloud and drizzle I can't see anything other than the typical disappointment. I wish I was back in Africa again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Unfortunately a rushed one tonight. Have to be up for exams tomorrow! Hopefully this seems about right... I am very tired Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Good Luck (with both exams and thunderstorms Posted Image)

 

Highest CAPE over Central Wales:

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,prec,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

Along with precipitation amounts:

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_prec_eur21.png

With a small chance of spouts over the area?

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_spout_eur21.png

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Looking through all the charts today it would appear there is a good likelihood of some heavy showers and thunderstorms today. The focal point appears to be the West Midlands, NW England and Wales along with Ireland, although areas outside this are not immune. CAPE on the GFS looks fairly weak but is stronger on the NMM hi-res charts, although the areas covered are similar across both models. Fairly weak CAPE will preclude severe weather developing, although slow storm motion could give rise to localised flooding as they are likely to last a while.
 
post-2719-0-95458900-1368683832_thumb.pn
 
Looking for a trigger and there does look to be areas of wind covergence, especially across Wales:
 
post-2719-0-56378400-1368683854_thumb.pn
 
Around 30-60knts of deep layer shear will allow separation of updrafts and downdrafts which brings the probability of more organised storm activity, especially where the highest CAPE and DLS overlap. Colder air aloft should allow hail to occur in a good few of the showers, with some moderate hail possible, and gusty winds also a possibility in heavier storms. 
 
post-2719-0-83703400-1368683891_thumb.gi
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

I haven't took a interest in a possible thunderstorm day for ages now but for some reason gut instinct tells me I might be in luck today,hope I'm right.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Morning!

 

Lets kick off with the ESTOFEX view of today:

 

 

Posted Image

 
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 16 May 2013 06:00 to Fri 17 May 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 May 2013 22:31
Forecaster: GATZEN
 
SYNOPSIS
 
The 500 hPa map show a deep trough that covers western Europe and a broad ridge over eastern Europe. A small cut-off low slowly moves into the western Black Sea. A unseasonable strong mid-level jet stream affects northern Africa and the central Mediterranean. Cold air advection continues across south-western Europe, whereas warm air masses across eastern Europe are advected into central and northern Europe with south-easterly winds.
 
DISCUSSION
 
Eastern Europe
 
Latest soundings indicate an unstable air mass across western Russia, where the old convergence zone dissolves until Thursday. The very moist boundary-layer will start to spread westward again and will affect a region from the northern Ukraine to the southern Baltic States. Daytime heating will likely create CAPE in the order of 500 J/kg and weak WAA will lead to local QG lift. 
 
Numerous thunderstorms are forecast. Weak vertical wind shear will limit storm organization, but pulse storms will be capable of producing large hail. Severe downbursts are not ruled out at the eastern edge of the thunderstorm region where latest soundings indicate deeply-mixed subcloud layers. Additionally the slow storm motion vector indicates a threat of excessive precipitation. In the evening hours, storms will likely cluster and weaken.

post-6667-0-98195600-1368686303_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

THE UK based, dedicated storm sites have nothing so far, so straight into the charts, some of which you may want to colour in yourselves........

 

GFS overview has the area of Wales, some of the SW and up as far as Manchester in a 'zone of possibility' late afternoon:

 

Posted Image

 

Aviation forecast not running with that:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

GFS specific charts for convective weather:

 

There are areas of MLCAPE but these have diminished a little since yesterdays charts run:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

But SBCAPE is massive in that area over Wales, Ireland and more generally to the West:

 

Posted Image

 

Convergence and shear (Ireland and Wales specifically) 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Lapse rates OK, but not outstanding:

 

Posted Image

 

MCS Propagation, note Ireland to start:

 

Posted Image

 

Transferring West UK later:

 

Posted Image

 

When lapse rates steepen a little:

 

Posted Image

 

But at lower levels:

 

Posted Image

 

But by then the SBCAPE has gone:

 

Posted Image

 

Skew-T sounding for Cardiff still fair, with most potential for activity being surface based:

 

Posted Image

 

and Manchester:

 

Posted Image

 

Slightly better for CAPE in Birmingham:

 

Posted Image

 

 

All in all a bit of a chance of a rumble or two in the areas highlighted later, good luck all.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Sunny spells accompanied by a high likelihood of heavy showers & thunderstorms developing from late morning once temps reach 9-11C

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Already a rash of showers across the West Country, SW and Wales. Looks like a good day coming up, especially in western parts. I need to get myself west with camera and camcorder in tow :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I need to get myself west with camera and camcorder in tow Posted Image

 

:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Look to be in the right place today... fingers crossed for an overhead storm.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I know the TT index should't be taken as an indicator on it's own, but putting the Netweather Extra NMM ones in amongst the other GFS charts this morning, makes it pretty interesting this afternoon:

 

post-6667-0-15032400-1368692337_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-14704000-1368692340_thumb.pn

 

The pink highlights areas of better potential, here's a guide to what it shows:

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/302/

 

I'm not going to publish a whole load of NW Extra charts for obvious reasons, but suffice to say the CIN (inhibition) at most levels is quite low, so if we can get a trigger, it should be OK.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Sweet F all will happen here as per usual given the recent luck we have with things in this stormless hovel. I see that the CAPE has already been massively downgraded yet again, and at 8 degrees with a bunch of cloud and drizzle I can't see anything other than the typical disappointment. I wish I was back in Africa again. 

 

Feel your pain brother, trust me....although we do have some clear sky and sunshine right now, and temps seem to be nosing up and some mild convection visible to my east...locking and loading the SLR....just in case.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

What we could do with is a bit of surface heating this morning, how's the sunshine/warmth down in the SW and Wales?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

This might be the killer if we can't get a bit more red on these charts in the SW, Wales and Midlands:

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

What we could do with is a bit of surface heating this morning, how's the sunshine/warmth down in the SW and Wales?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

This might be the killer if we can't get a bit more red on these charts in the SW, Wales and Midlands:

 

Posted Image

It's beautiful, hot and sunny herePosted Image  Fingers crossed for later. A great start for the day.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

blue skies and plenty of sunshine here....convection already initiating with big cauliflower TCu's going up.....I'm off to chase around 1pm....up the A417 to Birdlip, M5 to Brum and then down the Fosse Way this evening, should be a good route Posted Image

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

It's beautiful, hot and sunny herePosted Image  Fingers crossed for later. A great start for the day.Posted Image

 

An encouraging sign for part of the mix anyway Jane! Good luck

blue skies and plenty of sunshine here....convection already initiating with big cauliflower TCu's going up.....I'm off to chase around 1pm....up the A417 to Birdlip, M5 to Brum and then down the Fosse Way this evening, should be a good route Posted Image

 

Keep us posted AJ! 

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16

Lovely here in Bridgnorth, the odd bit of Cu bubbling up nicely

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