Storm Chase Tour 3 - Countdown

[nsrobins]

It would be safer to use the undercarriage, surely?

Sunday should be OK so long as the upper flow phases with surface conditions, which ECM is starting to hint at.

The prospects for Fri - Sun have taken a down-tick it has to be said but it's still early stages to be too confident. I still think Fri starts KS/NE then slides south with the DL providing the potential focus for action on Sunday.

[Nick F]

Good to see that GFS has slowed down the upper trough as it enters the mid-west this weekend, which will lead to multiple days of severe convective weather over the Plains.

Sunday's shaping up nicely at the moment for T3's arrival on the 00z GFS. Dry line approaching the west side I-35 corridor in OK by Sunday evening, with DPs reaching 70F to the east of the dryline, even if the models are over-egging DPs as has been apparent recently, we are still looking at 2000-3000 j/kg CAPE, 30 knot SW flow at 850mb and 45 knot westerly flow at 500mb atop SE surface flow over central Oklahoma. So some strong shear in the OK I-35 corridor where, coincidently, GFS breaks out a line of storms too.

However, all this detail I've gone into and it's still way off with potential for changes.

Looks like Monday will see another good set-up in the same sort of area, with perhaps a higher risk of tornadoes as per SPC day 6 outlook.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Nick F

[jimbo36]

Jimbo, rob and Matt and dan ar on the flight too as far as I am aware. There may be more.

and don't forget Sian, our newbie, to make that 7 for the special bus

[jimbo36]

not forgetting time it takes to get through passport control, suggest those who are landing on the Sunday, run from the plane, to get good position in the queue

[boomerang]

Run Forest run.

[Tom Lynch]

Oklahoma bound ?

 

 

 

[Tom Lynch]

i guess so

 

 

 

[nsrobins]

_{Sunday is I think a full transistion day so group chasing maybe not an option but the good news is that the models are slowing the progression of the set-up for severe and Monday is looking increasingly like the 'big' day of the multi-day event and within range would be E/NE OK so you newbies are in for a major introduction to the storm chasing experience by the looks of things.}

[ItIsGee]

Saturday downgrade now, Sunday and Monday looking to be the good days! Deco Monday!

[boomerang]

Warning areas for Sunday & Monday are stretched further south

[Tom Lynch]

I have a feeling that it will be a quick turn around on Sunday with a little bit of/lot of stress Delete as nessary.  I feel the I35 calling

 

Oklahoma bound

 

Tom

[chionomaniac]

Changeover day looks chaseable - southern end ( are there any late arrivals?)

 

 

 

SUPERCELLS ON THE WRN

   EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME TORNADIC WITH

   A CLUSTER OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE

   GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL OK

   AND SE KS WHERE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE FORECAST TO

   REACH 400 M2/S2 IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP

   LAYER SHEAR...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT.

   SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND DAMAGE

   THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE EVENING IF A LINEAR MCS CAN

   ORGANIZE.