Chase Day 7 Discussion - NW Texas

[Paul Sherman]

After getting the nasty part of a 400 mile drive out of the way yesterday we are in a prime position in Wichita Falls this morning for todays risk of Supercells, Large Hail (30% Hatched) will be the main threat but a small chance of tornadoes cannot be ruled out from looking at the Hodographs in the southern rolling plains of the texas panhandle. A decent dryline day should be in the offing and primary target looks to be just a touch west of Wichita Falls.

 

Paul S

[bristolstormchaser]

Hope you guys have a great day. Will try and catch you on streaming.

[nsrobins]

Decent enough potential Paul but looking at current obs against 13Z RAP I think the model is a bit too far North with the LLJ for this evening and I might be looking a tad further south.
The cap may prevent cells forming until 22Z in your location and a combination of DL bulge and dissolving cap south to north would take me to Throckmorton, TX by 19Z.

 

Good luck in what is essentially a 'bonus' day but with the added spice of a half decent LLJ that may do the trick.

[Paul]

While we wait for things to kick off later, here's Kaddy's latest report for BBC Radio Kent

 

[Dorsetbred]

Walmart pit stop!

[NL]

Tornado potential has been increased to 5% North central Texas. Wichita Falls being the prime place to start the chase..!!

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  1138 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013    VALID 151630Z - 161200Z     ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS    CORRECTED FOR WORDING AT THE END OF 2ND PARAGRAPH.     ..NRN AND ERN TX/SRN OK    COMPLEX SRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE FROM ERN NM TO W TX WILL  DRIFT/LIFT ENEWD TDY WHILE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER  OK BY THIS EVENING. A MOIST PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AROUND  1.5 INCHES WITHIN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO  FUEL SCATTERED TSTMS AMIDST A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS  CNTRL AND NRN TX. BAND OF ASCENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING POORLY  ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS ERN TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE  CONVECTION ENEWD ACROSS SERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX TODAY. AIRMASS TO  THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY  MARGINALLY UNSTABLE GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/MARGINAL LAPSE  RATES. DEEP SHEAR AND POCKETS OF GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER  THESE AREAS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE HAIL/WIND  POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.    A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AS THE UPPER LOW  CONSOLIDATES ACROSS OK LATER TODAY AND A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL  WLY FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS THE RED RIVER  VALLEY AND NORTH TX. THIS SHOULD OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST  DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. WEAKENING  INHIBITION AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH JUXTAPOSITION  OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND 30-35KT LLJ...WILL COMBINE TO  SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS  CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY  CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL SEWD MOVING MCS/S THROUGH THE EVENING  WITH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING ESEWD OR SEWD  ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR/DFW METROPLEX. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED  BY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE 00Z STORM SCALE  GUIDANCE FROM SPC SSEO AND AFWA ENSEMBLE. NOTE...00Z SSEO IS MISSING  4KM WRF-NMM MEMBER.

Edited May 15, 2013 by NL

[chionomaniac]

Good to see that today has been upgraded. Good luck. Not surprised with the upgrade as the models have been hinting at the possibilities for a few days now as Neil has been suggesting. Lets hope that this is the start of a week of activity for both tours 2 and 3.

[Arron]

Making our way south to sit in Seymour, TX. Should get to see the dryline bubble for a wee while

[chionomaniac]

GFS suggesting a dryline bulge from Childress to Abilene so no wonder the risk has been increased here.

 

[DubWeatherAddict]

Good luck today lads! , hopefully i come back from the cinema to see an very interesting chase unfolding ! 

Star Trek Into The Darkness time... ! 

[chionomaniac]

Making our way south to sit in Seymour, TX. Should get to see the dryline bubble for a wee while

Right on the bulge - a great starting point!

[chionomaniac]

12z NAM for 0100Z 

 

[Dorsetbred]

Based on the NAM you could be tempted to tell the guys to "hold position"!

[Cookie]

fingers crossed you get something decent today!

[nsrobins]

Yep a bit of a 'situation' developing this evening behind the ongoing activity retreating E across C OK and ahead of a sharpening DL.

The LLJ about to amplify across NC TX generates impressive SRH of 500+ and the highest focussed EHI (9 ish) I've seen so far this season in the southern plains.
The cap has disolved ahead of time so no loaded gun but I expect storms to quickly initiate from about 20Z in the clear slot Abilene to Childress with Throckmorton a decent place to start IMO.

I have a feeling an MD will be issued shortly with tor chances increasing towards 23Z in the said area.

Good luck. 

[chionomaniac]

Latest day 1 update

 

REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WICHITA
COUNTY IN NWRN TX...MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ACROSS OK AND MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL INTO ERN OK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THIS TREND HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING.

FARTHER SOUTH...HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER SEVERE PROBS TO THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD EMERGE ALONG
WRN PLUME OF INSTABILITY. CU HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...WEST OF DRT...AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH.

LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM NWRN TX...SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONCENTRATED SEVERE INITIATION IS PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-20. WITH TIME ONE OR MORE MCS-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD
EVOLVE AS THE OVERALL COMPLEX OF STORMS SPREADS TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[lewisosd]

stream isn't working grrrrrrr

[chionomaniac]

And satelite

 

[samadamsuk]

hey all. looks (to me!,) like the dmc is a little further east than previous targets - hvent looked to any great detail though.

[samadamsuk]

I reckon those Cells around Mineral Wells are going to get lively pretty quickly. Good luck all & Enjoy

[chionomaniac]

MD issued for hail and wind

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0644.html

[Supercell 89]

Good Luck today guys!! Its looking good, the slight risk days are always the best  

[Dorsetbred]

MD's posted

[Roger J Smith]

Meso-scale wind field and temp/moisture gradients point to a location just south of team's current location, between Albany TX and Throckmorton TX for development in about 2-3 hours, cells rounding the base of trough west of Abilene should fire up soon and I would advise drifting south 15-25 miles any time soon with visual contact on this Abilene cell within an hour. Posting the relevant radar below:

 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=dyx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

Predicting a tornado to develop near or over Abilene heading northeast towards Albany TX in the hour 22-23z which is 5-6 pm local and 2300-0100 BST.

Edited May 15, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[jimbo36]

no stream for me either for a couple of hours now