Chase Day 9 - Discussion (KS/CO)

[Paul Sherman]

Had a feeling the Trough that will impact the Central and Southern Plains over the next 4 days would impinge a little bit near Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado and that is why we went for Amarillo yesterday, with a Newly updated See Text Risk put in for that area looks like our one from last chase day with tour 2 could yield a few severe storms, we will then get ready for the risk on Saturday always keeping a close eye on getting back on Sunday morning and getting out for Sunday Afternoon and the bonus chase day.

 

Regards

 

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

Could be an all night drive Saturday?

[simon-ferndown]

i notice a severe thunderstorm warning been issued for an area just NE of Wako , but it might of changed since posted this ??

does look interesting though 

[nsrobins]

Have you set off yet?

I know you're looking at upslope on the KS/CO line but a look at RAP draws my eye to NC TX again with a very sharp DL setting-up in the next four hours. The DL is out towards the NM boder now but it is expected to advance in a bulge eastwards during the next five hours. A residual OFB from far E TX/Arklatex may be enough to break what is a pretty stout cap in very juicy air just ahead of the DL around Seymour, TX from 21Z. I see RAP ppn composite doesn't want to know - probably because of modelled cap - but it might be worth a punt as IMO the W KS area doesn't look as good.

I guess the KS target would put you in position for Saturday but even then a threat exists in TX again. I'll be interested in your thoughts.

[Paul Sherman]

Yep obviously when i put the post up 7 hours ago conditions were not looking great along the dryline in West Texas, but seeing as we have to stay south the next few days will give it a shot for a nice photogenic Supercell today and then hot foot it upto Kansas for tomorrow and then back down to DFW For Sunday morning and then back upto Northern Oklahoma for the bonus chase day Sunday  

 

Phew knackered just thinking about it

[nsrobins]

Yep obviously when i put the post up 7 hours ago conditions were not looking great along the dryline in West Texas, but seeing as we have to stay south the next few days will give it a shot for a nice photogenic Supercell today and then hot foot it upto Kansas for tomorrow and then back down to DFW For Sunday morning and then back upto Northern Oklahoma for the bonus chase day Sunday  

 

Phew knackered just thinking about it

I wasn't infering you weren't going to react to current data Paul, just wasn't sure if you were all up and about yet given the likely quantities of quality red meat and cold Bud consumed last night  

Caveat though - I was an hour's hike too far west with the other night's initiation, and initiation may not even occur this evening but I think it's worth a shot.

[Arron]

Heading back down the highway to heaven to Childress area for lunch. Will have to play the waiting game and hope something can break the cap. One thing is certain today though, we WILL be getting a suntan!

[Tom Lynch]

Arron did you get the message to pass onto Ian

 

Tom

[Paul]

Stream is live

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

 

(New system today, should hopefully be much more stable)

[nsrobins]

Thanks Arron. Ah, Claude. Nice sherriff - loves Australians LOL>

I think a little help will be needed for sure but a little kick from a boundary coincident with the sharpening DL bulge could/should be enough.
 

[Dorsetbred]

The SPC slight risk seems to be suggesting a little further south might be needed today.

...TX...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT CAPPING TO LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF STORMS THAT CAN FORM. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE A COMBINATION OF STRONG
HEATING AND DEEP MIXING CAN ELIMINATE THE CAP AND ALLOW A STORM OR
TWO. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

[Arron]

All sorted Tom

[chionomaniac]

The 12Z NAM (which has fared pretty well over the last couple of weeks when I have monitored) suggests a cap break over TX by 00Z.

 

 

Let's hope so.

Stream looks good btw

[chionomaniac]

Current Satellite - clear over TX cloudy OK.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Potent situation with moist tropical air south of OK-TX border being gently nudged by much drier air mass, recent heavy rains combined with today's sunshine will make for rapid evaporation and I expect this to go off explosively around 22z to 23z in a fairly similar area to previous outbreak, most severe potential probably a bit further northwest say around 20 mles west of a line from Mineral Wells to Graham to Wichita Falls.

 

Saturday potential looks good in western KS Garden City north.

 

Paul, did you think that the TX panhandle looked a bit greener this May after all that snow melt moisture? Or did it make no difference?

[chionomaniac]

A couple of things to note - the first is that an MD has been issued for the central TX area that the team are hovering around presently - it looks like one of those knife edge situations that could end up being a cumulus watch

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0668.html

 

 

It also appears that the area warrants a slight 2% tornado risk also.

 

Well spotted Neil earlier

[chionomaniac]

First signs that the cap is being broken?

 

[alexisj9]

Hope you guy's get something today.

[chionomaniac]

Weather watch issued for severe thunderstorms in the area to the teams immediate south.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0166.html

[Paul]

I see some tops on the horizon on the stream

[chionomaniac]

I see some tops on the horizon on the stream

I spotted them too, Paul - it is difficult to know if they are cap breakers yet!

 

Edit cap breaking tops at Graham and Brackenridge to the south on radarscope- Game on

Edited May 17, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Arron]

Turkey towering at the mo, looking pretty though

[nsrobins]

Hairline trigger about to be pulled. The earlier RAP for DL bulge pretty decent with a very steep dp gradient at the surface now in a cup shape Vernon/Seymour/Haskell (edit - expected by 22Z acording to 19Z| RAP). Super high surface ATs of 100F+ and decent lapse rates have generated a massive 5000+ max CAPE in the previous target area. Parcels punching the lid will shoot up like a hot helium ballon in the Arctic. Expect 50,000ft tops within 45mins of initiation with big hail and structure but a small tor risk too given the deep cores and resonable SRH focussed on Haskell/Graham line.
Inhibition just won't be able to resist and will fail shortly with a slight SE drift around Albany to Haskell helping. Expect the current development further south to ping north with cells firing big time.

Edited May 17, 2013 by nsrobins

[chionomaniac]

Neil that dewpoint bulge that you describe can be seen pretty well here:

 

 

 

Where would you want to be on that bulge - slightly to the NE or directly east?

Edited May 17, 2013 by chionomaniac

[nsrobins]

Neil that dewpoint bulge that you describe can be seen pretty well here:

 

 

ttd-2.gif

 

Where would you want to be on that bulge - slightly to the NE or directly east?

Classically just to the NE but on recent experience I might locate due east - say just west of Mineral Wells.

I absolutely love situations like this where the atmosphere is primed to perfection but you're in that time when you're asking 'will it, won't it and if it will, where'?