Day 10 Discussion - Moderate Risk (SD/NE/KS/OK/TX)

[Paul Sherman]

Looks to be a very active day today and all facets of Severe Weather are possible, 5,000jkg plus means extreme instability with very lareg hail and 1 or 2 Powerfull Long Tracked Tornadoes are possible, chase terrain is of the highest order in some of the best chase country in the world, we will of course be forced into the Southern Play but as of this moment it does not look a bad thing at all.

 

Looking for Tornado number 5 within 4 Days today

[nsrobins]

Looks to be a very active day today and all facets of Severe Weather are possible, 5,000jkg plus means extreme instability with very lareg hail and 1 or 2 Powerfull Long Tracked Tornadoes are possible, chase terrain is of the highest order in some of the best chase country in the world, we will of course be forced into the Southern Play but as of this moment it does not look a bad thing at all.

 

Looking for Tornado number 5 within 4 Days today

And why are you still up and about young man? You have a busy day today, and a potentially busier day Sunday so sleep tight LOL.

Have posted thoughts in the Day 9 discussion, but may add something on this evening's set-up later.

[matty40s]

Frustrating in the maximum this week, I have started a new job and am working until midnight most nights, so have missed most of the chasing this week after weeks of nonor minimal events.

Even if I rush back, I still only just catch the last rays in the US and have to catch up next morning, which just doesn't have the rush that following live has.

Todays warnings look like an immense chaseday, and in good territory too, not only for roads, but decent commnications too.

Good luck to all the chasers, and everyone stay safe out there.

 

Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

good result last night - think a few were core punching down to that southern cell. My initial target would be something like Buffalo, OK this evening, ready to push into central southern KS - I suspect places like Pratt & Wichita will be under fire tonight. If things stay as they are, my thoughts are that storms will initiate off the NE of the dry line bulge by late afternoon and track into KS, and these will be the main play

 

whats everyone else thinking ?

 

Good luck team 2!

[Dorsetbred]

 

 

Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

Have you tried 'puffin' for android. I run it on an ipad and it streams nicely, and such a low cost app?

[simon-ferndown]

 

 

Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

 

you could try some of the android type browsers like firefox, chrome, opera etc see if can access maybe chasertv from them ? worth a go when not busy.

 

also so does look to be an interesting day today & tonight for you chasers 

[Roger J Smith]

Best bet given all weather and trip planning variables ...

 

Woodward OK to OK-TX border I-40

 

w KS will be good but seems unnecessary to go that far, almost equal potential down the line to about Childress TX almost.

[Nick F]

Looking at recent HRRR runs, SW Oklahoma looks quite good looking a where it breaks out precip and places the strongest 0-1km and 0-6km shear:

[Nick F]

I would aim to get the I-40 and perhaps head south from there, either down the 283 or 183. Hopefully will be some discrete cells popping up in a N-S line down the dryline across SW/W Oklahoma later. Best to get on them early before they turn into HP beasts and merge with other storms.

[Stu Robinson]

My target would be between Ashland, Greenburg, Coldwater Kansas - just North East of the dryline buldge/triple point but I also agree with the SW OK target.     

[PolarWarsaw]

South and West Oklahoma along side Central Kansas looks prime today. The weather channel were big on both.

[nsrobins]

I concur with Roger and Nick here. The potential in far SW OK is as great IMO to further North although I know some prefer to play close to the surface low. I would be looking to the DL at Hollis, OK for initiation at 21Z and perhaps another cell finding a pocket of diminished CIN towards Childress across the river. PW is up to 1.5" here and what shear vectors there are should induce circulation quickly.
I can see a couple of longish track tornados between 23Z and 01Z heading NE into C OK.

 

My target would be between Ashland, Greenburg, Coldwater Kansas - just North East of the dryline buldge/triple point but I also agree with the SW OK target.     

I know you prefer the triple point play Stuart but I think instability will rule helicity this evening and for this reason I'm going for the southern end of the firing line.

 

I should add of course that ongoing convection responding to a weak disturbance above W OK now is moving ENE and although weakening and out of the way by 18Z could well provide an OFB to further boost the southern target.
A tricky decision for the team(s) but good luck.
Storm motions NNE/NE at 18-25mph so that's a positive.

[Paul]

Bear in mind too that the team have to have one eye on getting back to DFW for tomorrow morning as it's changeover day

[Paul]

Team are on the move now, heading toward Woodward - stream is up and running 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[nsrobins]

Bear in mind too that the team have to have one eye on getting back to DFW for tomorrow morning as it's changeover day

I had factored that into my algorithm, Paul LOL. Maybe the scientific community should consider introducing a new index that considers the logistics of allowing for UK storm chase team turnovers.

Perhaps another form of OFB but this time an 'Outer Flight Boundary' which is the maximum radius allowed between the departure airport and the outgoing chase teams?

[Arron]

Heading towards Clinton, OK for lunch. Keeping both areas in play but still liking it further north

[Paul]

I had factored that into my algorithm, Paul LOL. Maybe the scientific community should consider introducing a new index that considers the logistics of allowing for UK storm chase team turnovers.

Perhaps another form of OFB but this time an 'Outer Flight Boundary' which is the maximum radius allowed between the departure airport and the outgoing chase teams?

 

I think we need to go one step further and get some arrangement in place to stop these outbreaks co-inciding with changeovers, it seems to happen every time!

[user700]

6000 cape

 

 

Dew points

 

 

 

Good luck today!

 

[simon-ferndown]

i presume all you chaser type people know something is going to happen considering there is more than i ever seen inside the red moderate storm area ?

[nsrobins]

It really is 50/50 with target areas just now. I still like the southern tip of the DL play (Hollis, OK) but looking at current obs there's a subtle convergence zone now around Dodge City, KS and the 16Z RAP seems to focus EHI in this area as the stout southerly LLJ kicks in from 22Z.
This is the witching hour - hike NW up to the OK Panhandle/KS line or stay for the SW OK DL, with the chance storms may not fire here until an hour after further North.
Honestly, if I wasn't expecting to be in DFW on Sunday, I'd go for Kansas right now.

[nsrobins]

i presume all you chaser type people know something is going to happen considering there is more than i ever seen inside the red moderate storm area ?

It's a Saturday in a relatively quiet season thus far and a moderate risk. Chaser convergence a given.

[Arron]

Heading towards Woodward at the moment. Will gas up there and take another check on data

[samadamsuk]

hey all. The low seems a tiny bit deeper, and further south right now than forecast to my eye - woodward is a good starting position as far as I can see

 

cheers, Samos

[simon-ferndown]

i see a new http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0676.html

Mesoscale Discussion has been issued

[user700]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...WRN OK...NW TX...FAR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 181919Z - 182015Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ON THE DRYLINE BY
   21-22Z. VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
  
   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
   SWRN KS INTO THE FAR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NW TX. VIS IMAGERY
   SHOWS CU INCREASING IN THE WELL-MIXED AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   DRYLINE ACROSS SW KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE ONE EMBEDDED VORT
   MAX IS MOVING NWD OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER
   SERN CO/NERN NM SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
  
   THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9.5
   C/KM IN THE 750-500 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG IN AREAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
   MODEST...INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 35-45 KTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT UPON STORM INITIATION.
  
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS
   OF INITIATION...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL SIZE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY...BUT A MARKED
   INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT
   TOWARD EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS...WITH ISOLATED
   STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE
   AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...STORM CONSOLIDATION IN A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
   MAY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH AND A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SEVERE
   WIND THREAT THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY LIMITING THE WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT.