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Day 10 Discussion - Moderate Risk (SD/NE/KS/OK/TX)


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Looks to be a very active day today and all facets of Severe Weather are possible, 5,000jkg plus means extreme instability with very lareg hail and 1 or 2 Powerfull Long Tracked Tornadoes are possible, chase terrain is of the highest order in some of the best chase country in the world, we will of course be forced into the Southern Play but as of this moment it does not look a bad thing at all.

     

    Looking for Tornado number 5 within 4 Days today good.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Looks to be a very active day today and all facets of Severe Weather are possible, 5,000jkg plus means extreme instability with very lareg hail and 1 or 2 Powerfull Long Tracked Tornadoes are possible, chase terrain is of the highest order in some of the best chase country in the world, we will of course be forced into the Southern Play but as of this moment it does not look a bad thing at all.

     

    Looking for Tornado number 5 within 4 Days today good.gif

    And why are you still up and about young man? You have a busy day today, and a potentially busier day Sunday so sleep tight LOL.

    Have posted thoughts in the Day 9 discussion, but may add something on this evening's set-up later.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Frustrating in the maximum this week, I have started a new job and am working until midnight most nights, so have missed most of the chasing this week after weeks of nonor minimal events.

    Even if I rush back, I still only just catch the last rays in the US and have to catch up next morning, which just doesn't have the rush that following live has.

    Todays warnings look like an immense chaseday, and in good territory too, not only for roads, but decent commnications too.

    Good luck to all the chasers, and everyone stay safe out there.

     

    Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    hey all.

     

    good result last night - think a few were core punching down to that southern cell. My initial target would be something like Buffalo, OK this evening, ready to push into central southern KS - I suspect places like Pratt & Wichita will be under fire tonight. If things stay as they are, my thoughts are that storms will initiate off the NE of the dry line bulge by late afternoon and track into KS, and these will be the main play

     

    whats everyone else thinking ?

     

    Good luck team 2! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

     

     

    Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

    Have you tried 'puffin' for android. I run it on an ipad and it streams nicely, and such a low cost app?

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    Posted
  • Location: west moors dorset
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter thunder in summer ,sun other times
  • Location: west moors dorset

     

     

    Does anyone know if you can get live feeds on Android (Samsung S4 - unlimited data)?

     

    you could try some of the android type browsers like firefox, chrome, opera etc see if can access maybe chasertv from them ? worth a go when not busy.

     

    also so does look to be an interesting day today & tonight for you chasers 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Best bet given all weather and trip planning variables ...

     

    Woodward OK to OK-TX border I-40

     

    w KS will be good but seems unnecessary to go that far, almost equal potential down the line to about Childress TX almost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Looking at recent HRRR runs, SW Oklahoma looks quite good looking a where it breaks out precip and places the strongest 0-1km and 0-6km shear:

    post-1052-0-95812100-1368884014_thumb.pn

    post-1052-0-28346500-1368884024_thumb.pn

    post-1052-0-74515100-1368884050_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    I would aim to get the I-40 and perhaps head south from there, either down the 283 or 183. Hopefully will be some discrete cells popping up in a N-S line down the dryline across SW/W Oklahoma later. Best to get on them early before they turn into HP beasts and merge with other storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Location: Leicestershire

    My target would be between Ashland, Greenburg, Coldwater Kansas - just North East of the dryline buldge/triple point but I also agree with the SW OK target.     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

    South and West Oklahoma along side Central Kansas looks prime today. The weather channel were big on both.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    I concur with Roger and Nick here. The potential in far SW OK is as great IMO to further North although I know some prefer to play close to the surface low. I would be looking to the DL at Hollis, OK for initiation at 21Z and perhaps another cell finding a pocket of diminished CIN towards Childress across the river. PW is up to 1.5" here and what shear vectors there are should induce circulation quickly.
    I can see a couple of longish track tornados between 23Z and 01Z heading NE into C OK.

     



    My target would be between Ashland, Greenburg, Coldwater Kansas - just North East of the dryline buldge/triple point but I also agree with the SW OK target.     

    I know you prefer the triple point play Stuart but I think instability will rule helicity this evening and for this reason I'm going for the southern end of the firing line.

     

    I should add of course that ongoing convection responding to a weak disturbance above W OK now is moving ENE and although weakening and out of the way by 18Z could well provide an OFB to further boost the southern target.
    A tricky decision for the team(s) but good luck.
    Storm motions NNE/NE at 18-25mph so that's a positive.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    Bear in mind too that the team have to have one eye on getting back to DFW for tomorrow morning as it's changeover day :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Bear in mind too that the team have to have one eye on getting back to DFW for tomorrow morning as it's changeover day smile.png

    I had factored that into my algorithm, Paul LOL. Maybe the scientific community should consider introducing a new index that considers the logistics of allowing for UK storm chase team turnovers.

    Perhaps another form of OFB but this time an 'Outer Flight Boundary' which is the maximum radius allowed between the departure airport and the outgoing chase teams?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Heading towards Clinton, OK for lunch. Keeping both areas in play but still liking it further north :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    I had factored that into my algorithm, Paul LOL. Maybe the scientific community should consider introducing a new index that considers the logistics of allowing for UK storm chase team turnovers.

    Perhaps another form of OFB but this time an 'Outer Flight Boundary' which is the maximum radius allowed between the departure airport and the outgoing chase teams?

     

    I think we need to go one step further and get some arrangement in place to stop these outbreaks co-inciding with changeovers, it seems to happen every time!

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    Posted
  • Location: west moors dorset
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter thunder in summer ,sun other times
  • Location: west moors dorset

    i presume all you chaser type people know something is going to happen considering there is more than i ever seen inside the red moderate storm area ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    It really is 50/50 with target areas just now. I still like the southern tip of the DL play (Hollis, OK) but looking at current obs there's a subtle convergence zone now around Dodge City, KS and the 16Z RAP seems to focus EHI in this area as the stout southerly LLJ kicks in from 22Z.
    This is the witching hour - hike NW up to the OK Panhandle/KS line or stay for the SW OK DL, with the chance storms may not fire here until an hour after further North.
    Honestly, if I wasn't expecting to be in DFW on Sunday, I'd go for Kansas right now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    i presume all you chaser type people know something is going to happen considering there is more than i ever seen inside the red moderate storm area ?

    It's a Saturday in a relatively quiet season thus far and a moderate risk. Chaser convergence a given.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Heading towards Woodward at the moment. Will gas up there and take another check on data :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    hey all. The low seems a tiny bit deeper, and further south right now than forecast to my eye - woodward is a good starting position as far as I can see

     

    cheers, Samos

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    Posted
  • Location: west moors dorset
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter thunder in summer ,sun other times
  • Location: west moors dorset

    i see a new http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0676.html

    Mesoscale Discussion has been issued

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    Posted · Hidden by user700, May 21, 2013 - No reason given
    Hidden by user700, May 21, 2013 - No reason given

    post-9700-0-33994000-1368905902_thumb.gi

     

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
       0219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
      
       AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...WRN OK...NW TX...FAR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
      
       CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
      
       VALID 181919Z - 182015Z
      
       PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
      
       SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ON THE DRYLINE BY
       21-22Z. VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND
       WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
      
       DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
       SWRN KS INTO THE FAR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NW TX. VIS IMAGERY
       SHOWS CU INCREASING IN THE WELL-MIXED AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
       DRYLINE ACROSS SW KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE ONE EMBEDDED VORT
       MAX IS MOVING NWD OUT OF THE AREA...ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT MAX OVER
       SERN CO/NERN NM SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS
       AFTERNOON.
      
       THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9.5
       C/KM IN THE 750-500 MB LAYER...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO
       EXTREME MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG IN AREAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
       AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
       MODEST...INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
       OF 35-45 KTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
       SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT UPON STORM INITIATION.
      
       DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS
       OF INITIATION...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL SIZE THE
       PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
       SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT INITIALLY...BUT A MARKED
       INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT
       TOWARD EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS...WITH ISOLATED
       STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE
       AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...STORM CONSOLIDATION IN A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
       MAY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH AND A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SEVERE
       WIND THREAT THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY LIMITING THE WINDOW OF
       OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT.
     

     

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