Day 10 Discussion - Moderate Risk (SD/NE/KS/OK/TX)

[Arron]

Heading north towards Coldwater, KS. Can see the dryline bubbling away to our north west

[NL]

Latest satellite image showing a Cu field bubbling up nicely along the dry-line.

© MSFC/ NASA

 Starting to initiate, dryline starting to explode.

Edited May 18, 2013 by NL

[nsrobins]

Very rapid towering on the 283 north of Dodge in last half hour.

[NL]

Even in the last 10 mins Neil.

Latest sat.

 Look at those cells explode western Kansas.

 

[Paul]

The stream's up - and pointed at the developments the team are heading toward

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

 

It's about to kick off I think!!

[NL]

Tornado watch issued.

WWUS20 KWNS 182025  SEL1    SPC WW 182025  OKZ000-TXZ000-190400-    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF     WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA    NORTHWEST TEXAS    * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL    1100 PM CDT.    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...    SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE    SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL      EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE    SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF  ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS.  FOR  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0171NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0316 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013WT 0171PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  50%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  20%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  60%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  30%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 3.0MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 550MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25030PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO

Edited May 18, 2013 by NL

[nsrobins]

Cu field developing nicely now down the DL through Spearville to Ashland KS.
My advice at this point would be not to rush North.

[user700]

Latest satellite

 

Edited May 18, 2013 by danieluk

[Nick F]

Team in good position to see what develops further south along the dryline of the supercells developing north of Dodge City, certainly looks like clouds boiling up nicely in front of their eyes.

Vis satellite over Kansas, see the cells developing south of the big storms further north:

Storms over west central KS certainly in the best environment wrt wind shear, on the NE side of the low over SW Kansas, where surface winds are backed most in relation to the 850mb and 500mb winds aloft:

Might have a look at whose streaming on those bog storms the north of the team.

Edited May 18, 2013 by Nick F

[NL]

Storms shaping up now in the SW corner of Oklahoma Heading NE towards Altus.

[Arron]

Round and round we go! Heading a bit south to take a peek at the cell that popped up over NE Texas panhandle. Should slide right passed us

[Nick F]

Wall cloud coming down with brief funnel on a stream in the meso on the supercell NW of Ness City, KS.

Seems to be a big old chaser convergence in and around Greensburg atm, looking at the Chasertv map.

Edited May 18, 2013 by Nick F

[samadamsuk]

team are a few miles from Buffalo, OK - that's where I'm starting my virtual milk float chase from, max 10 mph.

[samadamsuk]

unfortunately the NW stream not working right now - ~I suspect the radar doesn't do those southern cells justice though - watching the '2close' team on chaser tv living up to their name right now! practicaly under a rotating meso

[bazookabob]

tornado warning here... http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/live-stream

 

bb

[NL]

Tornado watch issued for western Oklahoma just south of the team.

ACUS11 KWNS 182252  SWOMCD  SPC MCD 182252   OKZ000-182345-    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 [attachment=171600:Screen shot 2013-05-18 at 23.58.52.png]   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171...    VALID 182252Z - 182345Z    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 171 CONTINUES.    SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER WRN OK.  THE  POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO WOULD SEEMINGLY INCREASE  IN THE 00Z-02Z PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NE AT 20 KT.    DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS  OCCASIONALLY ACQUIRING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STORMS MOVE  TO THE NE AT 20 KT OVER SWRN OK.  THE KFDR VWP ONLY SHOWS AROUND  30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...LENDING SOME LIMITATION TO GREATER SUPERCELL  STRUCTURE LONGEVITY.  NONETHELESS...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN OK FEATURES  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WILL FAVOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL  GROWTH WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  CURRENT THINKING IS AN  EVENTUAL MORE ROBUST STORM OR TWO WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS  CLUSTER OF STORMS.  AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IMPROVES SLIGHTLY THIS  EVENING...THE REMAINING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME INTENSE  SUPERCELLS WITH STORM-SCALE ROTATION INCREASING IN TANDEM WITH A LLJ  FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT BY 00-01Z.  AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS  BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...RICHER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WWD  AND IMPROVE PROSPECTS FOR A TORNADIC SUPERCELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH  INCREASES.

Edited May 18, 2013 by NL

[user700]

Latest satellite

 

[samadamsuk]

esrh cranking up now - the northern most Kansas storm still having problems with interfering rain cooled air, but wont be surprised to see the storm north of Greensburg drop a TN, followed by the N OK Storm -  

[davehsug]

Blimey, this stream is really frustrating. I've been watching for years & it's never been this bad, it's not as though they're in areas they've never been to before & had coverage? I'd happily pay a fiver for a decent stream throughout the chases with the NW team if it meant something more like what we used to have!

Edited May 18, 2013 by davehsug

[Allseasons-Si]

Interesting developements on stormscapelive.tv on chasertv.

 

with the dust on the ground blowing left and the clouds going right.

 

Blimey,check it out

Edited May 19, 2013 by allseasons-si

[samadamsuk]

im watching that one too AS - looks real interesting when he zooms in -

[Allseasons-Si]

im watching that one too AS - looks real interesting when he zooms in -

yes,some rotation there,hope they get lucky.

 

nice wall developing.

 

they are intercepting it now.

 

Edit:ben mcmillan on the move to a possible TN.

Edited May 19, 2013 by allseasons-si

[matty40s]

kholby martin on the best stream now

[samadamsuk]

witchits roofing showing a developing TN on that cell north of greesnburg

[Stu Robinson]

Truncated cone tornado on the cell NE of Dodge city - you can see it on KAKE Bryce Kintigh's feed (Imap.tv)

 

Edited May 19, 2013 by Stuart Robinson