Sunday 1st daily brief for tour 3

[Tom Lynch]

After a long trek and a few winks we are ready to set off for a bonus chase into a Moderate Risk area

 

 

 

Most guests are here and ready

 

Tom

 

 

[simon-ferndown]

if yesterday was anything to go By Tom i think the chances are still quite high for action out there , and as i dont know much im so learning from you guys what this & that are [at least now know what a wall cloud is lol]

[bristolstormchaser]

Liking the video diary Tom, the low level moisture is looking good :-) Hope you manage to get north in time to make the most of the moderate risk :-) 3 of us will be out tomorrow, can't wait!!

[NL]

NWS SPC going with a 15% tornado probability today through NE Oklahoma,SE Kansas into Paul's favourite chase country Misery (Missouri). Could be one or two large and powerful tornadoes today.. Stay safe..

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0733 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013    VALID 191300Z - 201200Z    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN  KS...WESTERN MO...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL  PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...     ..KS/MO/OK    MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS  THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A  VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TX/OK.  THIS  AIR MASS IS POISED TO RETURN RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS AND  WESTERN MO BY MID AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE  SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER THE REGION.      A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL  PLAINS THIS MORNING.  THIS CAP WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS  THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE  DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD  FRONT OVER EASTERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-23Z.  INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE  SUPERCELLS.  THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR  TORNADOES...BUT A FEW SUBTLE STORM-SCALE DETAILS WILL INFLUENCE THE  OUTCOME.  ONE PROBLEM MAY BE THE DEGREE OF HEATING REQUIRED TO BREAK  THE CAP OVER OK AND THE RESULTING LCL HEIGHTS.  NEVERTHELESS...VERY  HIGH CAPE VALUES /MLCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG/ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE  INFLUENCES SO HAVE INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF  THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...RAPIDLY  INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z /0-3KM HELICITY VALUES RISING  TO 300-500 M2/S2/ WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS FAR EAST  AS SOUTHWEST MO.    OTHERWISE...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0+ C/KM WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF VERY LARGE  HAIL.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD  EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD  DAMAGING WINDS.

[Nick F]

Quality vid Mr Lynch. Looks like best potential will be north of the I-40 and east of the I-35 over NE Oklahoma and SE Kansas, but, it's not the best chase terrain with increasing trees and hills particularly the further east you go towards Aarkansas and Missouri border. Plus I imagine there will be a huge chaser convergence being a weekend day and the 'tour season'. So good luck and hopefully you can get far enough north later to get in on the action, maybe catch some more discrete supercells further south over Oklahoma as you head up the I-35.

[chionomaniac]

Recognise the walmart car park, Tom!  Already great to see the moisture transport heading north - the storm supply chain. Keep the video diaries coming, Tom!

 

06Z NAM suggests 23Z as kick off time - how far north do you think that you can get by then?

 

[nsrobins]

Ingredients once again for an active severe event this evening. Without prejudice to the team who may find my target a drive too far, I'm looking at Bartlesville, OK as the southern end of discrete supercell for initiation by 21Z. The hodos in this region are very tightly looped and overlay of big CAPE, no cap, rich moisture and an LLJ max by 23Z increasing shear parameters. There's also astatioanry boundary draped across this area with a surface backing of winds to S to SE south to north. This boundary will likely be a focus for convergence forcing from around 20Z, with a very broad DL incursion into C OK by then.
I also like the area in SC KS around Augusta but there's a large area at risk with s few strong tornados possible.
 

[Arron]

Just waiting for the last car to turn up at the airport and then we're going right back up the i35 We can get to OKC in roughly 3 hours so say 4 to get north of okc. Hoping things will hold off for us till we get there

[NL]

Latest from the NWS expect initiation to commence around 19-20z in North/Central/ Oklahoma and South/Central Kansas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Stu Robinson]

My virtual target today would be Arkansas City, Kansas.

[Nick L]

Right. Me and 2 fellow Met students have abandoned our road trip in LA, to drive 1400 miles in 48 hours to get back to Oklahoma for this. Better be worth it!

[chionomaniac]

Good Luck with that drive Nick - typical that you are in LA when the trough comes through OK.

 

My virtual target today is Independence in SE KS.

 

Let's hope that Joplin is spared any storms.

 

Which car is being held back in Dallas - is it the one with the GPS and streaming?

[Arron]

We're on  the road! Heading north to get us some stormz!

Tom has stayed back to pick up the last guest. He'll be a few hours behind us

[chionomaniac]

Dew points in the low 70's already in mid  OK.

 

[PolarWarsaw]

Can someone help me with the following?

- A reliable stream to someone that's following the storms live?

- A TV channel stream that's covering any storms aside from the Weather Channel?

- An updated Doppler.

Thanks - always want to get involved in this but never know how to do it live.

[nsrobins]

Sunday has been pencilled for the severe day since midweek and it's turning out that way. The latest RAP suggests an increase in 850 flow across NE OK from 23Z with attendant increase in tornadic activity into the twilight hours.
A dangerous set-up developing so stay safe.

Staying with my target of Bartlesville, OK for now given the surface feature/boundary slowly retreating north.

[nsrobins]

Can someone help me with the following?

- A reliable stream to someone that's following the storms live?

- A TV channel stream that's covering any storms aside from the Weather Channel?

- An updated Doppler.

Thanks - always want to get involved in this but never know how to do it live.

For live streams you should check chasertv.com and switch around. Also the NW teams should be streaming but it's been troublesome.

For live TV coverage - which is likely this evening - punch 'live weather stream Wichita/Tulsa' into a search. Various channels to choose from such as KAKE/FOX subsiduries.

Doppler - unless you have GR3 then you'll have to settle for the radar returns on the live stream sites or the NWS feed via SPC which also has a low-res velocity output which will do.

Hope that helps.

[PolarWarsaw]

Cheers - will look into doing all of the above. What's GR3?

[samadamsuk]

just to bring another acronym to the table, as I'm sure we need more, my vct today is Ponca City - I still want the option to push east and north pretty quickly over the hills, but also routes directly north- agree with above thoughts, but think the action will be this side of the range. Good luck chase team 3 - drive safely!

[Dorsetbred]

Cheers - will look into doing all of the above. What's GR3?

GRLevel3 Version 2 is a Windows viewer for live and archive NEXRAD Level III data. It displays high resolution base products, dual polarization products, and derived products along with Local Storm Reports and severe weather warnings.

Check out http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3_2/

[Dorsetbred]

Anybody care to post who is on Tour 3,please?

[lewisosd]

More video diaries this year Tom. Where was chicken george?!

[Nick F]

MD for North Oklahoma/Ern Kansas: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0697.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB

AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191751Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z...MOST LIKELY OVER

SCNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUE THROUGH

THE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN KS...NERN OK AND EVENTUALLY WRN MO THIS

EVENING. INITIAL THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND

TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX INTO

FAR WRN OK THEN NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A

COLD FRONT. A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS NEAR THE OK/KS

BORDER AND HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO

INDICATES AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN

OK. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR

BENEATH VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORS

ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY

WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF

THE EML IS SERVING TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC BASED STORMS IN

THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED

WITH EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE LOCATED WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT

REGION AS WELL AS DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED

TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

MID-UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN

50+ KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL

ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND THREAT FOR A FEW

STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND

MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013

[chionomaniac]

Funny looking at all the chasers gathered in the mod risk area all waiting for the action to begin

 

http://www.chasertv.com/

 

 

Most of them are around the I35 corridor

[icbinb]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0698.html

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CNTRL...AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191845Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY
AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS A DRYLINE RAPIDLY MIXING
EWD ACROSS WRN OK...ATTENDANT TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NWRN
OK...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL
OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS FAR NRN OK...BUT UNIFORM SLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH
SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LINE OF
CU WAS NOTED PRECEDING THE DRYLINE...ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR A 30 E
CSM TO 15 NW END LINE...WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER IMPULSE
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER.

STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF OK...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER CU FORMING MORE RECENTLY BUT STILL EXHIBITING CAPPED/FLAT
CHARACTER. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S F WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SHOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANYING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS WIND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BETWEEN
20-21Z...AND PERHAPS AFTER 21Z ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013