June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[Roger J Smith]

CET averages and extremes

 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

 

 

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676

17.3 ... 1826

17.1 ... 1822

17.0 ... 1976

 

14.8 ... average for 2001-2012

14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1901-2000

14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2012, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1701-1800 and 1659-1700

14.1 ... average for 1971-2000

 

13.5 ... 2012 mean

 

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

Edited May 22, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[summer blizzard]

Last month i went with the models and other data over my own thoughts and i have paid the price for it, despite the settled start i'm not sure it will last and so i will at this stage go for a cool, dry 13.5C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

[CongletonHeat]

12.2

[Guest pjl20101]

Going at the moment for 14.2 currently, this may change in a weeks time however.

[masheeuk]

put me down for 13.8

[Lettucing Gutted]

19C

[SteveB]

I'll go for 14.6c please.

[NeilN]

15c for me...will be an average month.

[Summer Sun]

14.8c

 

The run of below average months has to end at some point

[Trickster]

12.6C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Graph of the June CET, with the 10 year mean in red and the trend in black.

 

 

The correlation between the May and June CET is +0.269, which is statistically significant over the CET record, and close to the average month to month correlation (+0.275). This suggests that below average May is more often than not, followed by a below average June, and vice versa. This correlation is however, much weaker than the February to March correlation (+0.414) and the July to August correlation (+0.417).

The correlation between the June CET of one year and that of the following year is very weak though, at -0.044, which suggests little predictive value in looking at last years June CET for this years guess.

[nbj2013]

This is my first attempt at a monthly CET forecast on here, and I think i'll go for 14.2c with below average rainfall (60-80%) and around average sunshine (90-110%)

[hillbilly]

14.7  will be my guess!

[Cloudwatcher]

12.5c (I'm pessimistic, but on May's current form round here....wouldn't be surprised.)

12.2

Went for 12.5...you can tell how cheesed off us Cheshire lot are atm!

Edited May 22, 2013 by Cloudwatcher

[SomeLikeItHot]

13.7 on the basis of the last 3 month being a re-run of 1962 in CET terms.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

16.5c please

[IanR]

although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

Climate change is here

How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

[Eugene]

 

 

although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

Climate change is here

How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow that's colder than the June in 1816 , the year without a summer, that would I think get it into the top ten coldest June's on record or thereabouts, not expecting any recent GFS FI warm easterly runs to come off then

Edited May 22, 2013 by Eugene

[Lake District Blizzard]

The Story of this Summer will be the cold rather than rain like last year, My guess for June is 12.8c

[Mark Bayley]

14.6c please

[DR(S)NO]

14.0c please

[Bobd29]

I think the weather is playing with us this year so I'll go for 15.6 for June

[DeepSnow]

15.2C for me

[Evening thunder]

although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,Climate change is hereHow long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

 

Surely it would be when a 30 year average came out showing June or whatever month to be cooler in that 30 year average?

[Roger J Smith]

Not exactly Craig Evans here, but 16.9 shall be my wildly optimistic guess.