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June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    CET averages and extremes

     

    23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

     

     

    18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

    18.0 ... 1676

    17.3 ... 1826

    17.1 ... 1822

    17.0 ... 1976

     

    14.8 ... average for 2001-2012

    14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1901-2000

    14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2012, also 1801-1900

    14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1701-1800 and 1659-1700

    14.1 ... average for 1971-2000

     

    13.5 ... 2012 mean

     

    11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909

    11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

     

     7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Last month i went with the models and other data over my own thoughts and i have paid the price for it, despite the settled start i'm not sure it will last and so i will at this stage go for a cool, dry 13.5C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    19C

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I'll go for 14.6c please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Graph of the June CET, with the 10 year mean in red and the trend in black.

     

    post-6901-0-21611300-1369223601_thumb.jp

     

    The correlation between the May and June CET is +0.269, which is statistically significant over the CET record, and close to the average month to month correlation (+0.275). This suggests that below average May is more often than not, followed by a below average June, and vice versa. This correlation is however, much weaker than the February to March correlation (+0.414) and the July to August correlation (+0.417).

    The correlation between the June CET of one year and that of the following year is very weak though, at -0.044, which suggests little predictive value in looking at last years June CET for this years guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penzance, Cornwall
  • Location: Penzance, Cornwall

    This is my first attempt at a monthly CET forecast on here, and I think i'll go for 14.2c with below average rainfall (60-80%) and around average sunshine (90-110%)

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

    14.7  will be my guess!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

    12.5c (I'm pessimistic, but on May's current form round here....wouldn't be surprised.)

    12.2

    Went for 12.5...you can tell how cheesed off us Cheshire lot are atm!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

    13.7 on the basis of the last 3 month being a re-run of 1962 in CET terms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

    Climate change is here

    How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

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    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

    Climate change is here

    How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Wow that's colder than the June in 1816 Posted Image, the year without a summer, that would I think get it into the top ten coldest June's on record or thereabouts, not expecting any recent GFS FI warm easterly runs to come off then Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    14.0c please

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    I think the weather is playing with us this year so I'll go for 15.6 for June

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    15.2C for me Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Lancaster and East Devon
  • Location: Lancaster and East Devon

    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,Climate change is hereHow long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

     

    Surely it would be when a 30 year average came out showing June or whatever month to be cooler in that 30 year average?

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