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June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    Posted

    CET averages and extremes

     

    23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

     

     

    18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

    18.0 ... 1676

    17.3 ... 1826

    17.1 ... 1822

    17.0 ... 1976

     

    14.8 ... average for 2001-2012

    14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1901-2000

    14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2012, also 1801-1900

    14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1701-1800 and 1659-1700

    14.1 ... average for 1971-2000

     

    13.5 ... 2012 mean

     

    11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909

    11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

     

     7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

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    summer blizzard Maestro

    summer blizzard

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    Posted

    Last month i went with the models and other data over my own thoughts and i have paid the price for it, despite the settled start i'm not sure it will last and so i will at this stage go for a cool, dry 13.5C, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

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    Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

    Lettucing Gutted

    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
    • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
    Posted

    19C

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    SteveB Veteran

    SteveB

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
    • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    Posted

    I'll go for 14.6c please.

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    BornFromTheVoid Maestro

    BornFromTheVoid

    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
    • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
    Posted

    Graph of the June CET, with the 10 year mean in red and the trend in black.

     

    post-6901-0-21611300-1369223601_thumb.jp

     

    The correlation between the May and June CET is +0.269, which is statistically significant over the CET record, and close to the average month to month correlation (+0.275). This suggests that below average May is more often than not, followed by a below average June, and vice versa. This correlation is however, much weaker than the February to March correlation (+0.414) and the July to August correlation (+0.417).

    The correlation between the June CET of one year and that of the following year is very weak though, at -0.044, which suggests little predictive value in looking at last years June CET for this years guess.

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    nbj2013 Newbie

    nbj2013

    Posted
  • Location: Penzance, Cornwall
    • Location: Penzance, Cornwall
    Posted

    This is my first attempt at a monthly CET forecast on here, and I think i'll go for 14.2c with below average rainfall (60-80%) and around average sunshine (90-110%)

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    hillbilly Experienced

    hillbilly

    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
    • Location: halifax 125m
    Posted

    14.7  will be my guess!

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    Cloudwatcher Explorer

    Cloudwatcher

    Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
    • Location: Chester
    Posted

    12.5c (I'm pessimistic, but on May's current form round here....wouldn't be surprised.)

    12.2

    Went for 12.5...you can tell how cheesed off us Cheshire lot are atm!

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    SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

    SomeLikeItHot

    Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
    • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
    Posted

    13.7 on the basis of the last 3 month being a re-run of 1962 in CET terms.

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    IanR Seasoned

    IanR

    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
    • Location: Wigan
    Posted

    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

    Climate change is here

    How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

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    Eugene Accomplished

    Eugene

    Posted
    Posted

     

     

    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,

    Climate change is here

    How long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Wow that's colder than the June in 1816 Posted Image, the year without a summer, that would I think get it into the top ten coldest June's on record or thereabouts, not expecting any recent GFS FI warm easterly runs to come off then Posted Image

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    DR(S)NO Community Regular

    DR(S)NO

    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
    • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    Posted

    14.0c please

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    Bobd29 Enthusiast

    Bobd29

    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
    • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
    Posted

    I think the weather is playing with us this year so I'll go for 15.6 for June

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    DeepSnow Community Regular

    DeepSnow

    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
    • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
    Posted

    15.2C for me Posted Image

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    Evening thunder Experienced

    Evening thunder

    Posted
  • Location: Lancaster and East Devon
    • Location: Lancaster and East Devon
    Posted

    although I have predicted below average temps for the all months since the start of the year, my predictions have still been too high. So I am predicting a very low 12.4 , The below average theme will just go on and on,Climate change is hereHow long will it take the met office to revise down what is actually average in our cooling climate

     

    Surely it would be when a 30 year average came out showing June or whatever month to be cooler in that 30 year average?

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