June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[Gael_Force]

Yep. The analogues I used were from a brief summer prediction here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76293-summer-2013/?p=2691095

 

The closest year to this was 2006, followed by 1969, then 2001 and 2011. The 2011, 2001 and 1969 mean is 14.0C (-0.5C below the 81-10 average) while 2006 has 15.9C.

Suppose I should clarify, that the 3 closest matches, behind 2006, are 0.5C below average, rather than 1C below as a I mentioned in the previous post.

 

What are the NOAA analogues you're referring to?

 

The NOAA upper air tools page, 500 analogues are given for a range of days - this is the eleven day link.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

[davehsug]

14.4c please

[Kentish Man]

14.5C for me thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Just posted a table of entries in the annual competition thread, 66 entries so far, median is 14.4 C.

 

This table will be updated to about Saturday morning, after that, you can still enter but I can't edit.

 

Note, the tables are not used directly by Jackone for scoring so if I do make an error (late edits, bad eyesight etc), you'll probably be okay in the scoring table.

[geoffw]

13.6

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

16.4C

[J10]

15.5c

 

1.0c above average, being optimistic possibly, but also slightly realistic at the same time.

[J10]

Just posted a table of entries in the annual competition thread, 66 entries so far, median is 14.4 C.

 

This table will be updated to about Saturday morning, after that, you can still enter but I can't edit.

 

Note, the tables are not used directly by Jackone for scoring so if I do make an error (late edits, bad eyesight etc), you'll probably be okay in the scoring table.

 

I do use the scores you provide and compare them against mine from the thread, many a time they have found errors I have done, so they are very valuable.   

[AderynCoch]

I think I'll ramp it this month.

 

16.0C

[Nigerian Prince]

14.7 for me, I am not fooled by the warm start to June, after all, did we not have a warm start to May!

[Jack Wales]

Warm dry start with a more unsettled finish to the month however night time minima should ensure a warm cet.... 16.1 C

[TonyH]

15.5c please

[March Blizzard]

13.4C please

Edited May 31, 2013 by March Blizzard

[Thundery wintry showers]

Doh, a bit late again!  14.7C please.

[Aphelion369]

13.9 please

[Great Plum]

Late... Sorry! 14.6c please

[Terminal Moraine]

Oops, very late this month. I'll go for 13.4c.

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 14.8c

[damianslaw]

Late entry - I'm going for 14.6 degrees. Some decent sunny warm dry conditions but cool nights off setting things.

[SomeLikeItHot]

11.9 to the 1st.

 

with min today of 6.4 and max of around 17,  is likely to fall to 11.8 tomorrow.

 

and on going long minimums will stay low for a few days

 

Current GFS6z ensemble mean has it as

 

2nd   11.8

3rd 11.6

4th   11.5

5th 11.6

and then moving slowly upwards towards 12.9 by mid month ie still about 0.5 below average at that time.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 2nd

[SomeLikeItHot]

11.9c to the 2nd

 

Daily mean was also 11.9 but I don't understand how they got it given that the Min of 6.5 and max of 17.1 should give (6.5+17.1)/2 = 11.8

 

Anyway min today of 6.4, and with max of around 18 tomorrow should move to 12.0

 

So using the GFS 6z ensemble mean

 

We should have

3rd 12

4th    12.2

5th  12.4

6th 12.7

7th  12.9

 

Then pushing up towards 13.1-13.2 on the 10-11th, beforre falling slightly to around 13 on the 18th (about 0.8 below 61-90 av at that date).

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

A decent rise today

 

12.6c to the 4th

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.3C while maxima were around 17C, so an increase to 12.7C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at:

12.8C to the 6th (13.4)

13.0C to the 7th (13.6)

13.0C to the 8th (13.1)

13.0C to the 9th (13.0)

13.1C to the 10th (13.9)

13.1C to the 11th (13.7)

13.2C to the 12th (14.0)

 

The minima keeping things close to average for the next week.