June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[Summer Sun]

CET was 12.7 to the 5th

[BornFromTheVoid]

It doesn't seem like the daily data has been updated yet, but the min (8.4) and max(19.7) are available for yesterday. So the CET should be on 12.95C, so either 12.9 or 13.0 when it finally updates.

With today's minimum at 7.4C and maxima reaching around 20C, the CET to the 7th should be around 13.1C.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

13.1C to the 8th (13.1)

13.1C to the 9th (13.3)

13.1C to the 10th (13.0)

13.3C to the 11th (15.5)

13.6C to the 12th (16.8]

13.6C to the 13th (12.8]

13.8C to the 14th (16.7)

[Summer Sun]

confirmed as 12.9c to the 6th

[summer blizzard]

Hard to say what the result will be given the lower than expected averages but the charts certainly have a look of 15C+ to them.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hard to say what the result will be given the lower than expected averages but the charts certainly have a look of 15C+ to them.

 

 

<14 Me thinks,am expecting a large downward correction come months end

[Summer Sun]

We remain on 12.9c to the 7th

[BornFromTheVoid]

We remain on 12.9c to the 7th

 

Odd. That doesn't seem to make any sense. If it was on 12.9C to the 6th, then was 14C yesterday, it should be on at least 13.0C now? Have they started doing adjustments during the month?

 

EDIT: Yep, looks like at first 2 days at least have been adjusted downward.

Edited June 8, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[phil nw.]

There doesn't look to be any great heat on the horizon out to the 3rd week of June looking at the ens means so anything above the CET average seems unlikely out to that point.

The Azores high looks like ridging in at times between the Atlantic fronts in a mainly westerly type of setup after mid-week.

No indication of any TC flow from the south yet-more your typical UK Summer pattern in the next 2 weeks so temperatures look very average or just below at the moment.

[summer blizzard]

I have to say that if we do get a cool CET in the end this April-June period will have been one of the nicest cool periods we've seen.

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 8th

[SomeLikeItHot]

Odd. That doesn't seem to make any sense. If it was on 12.9C to the 6th, then was 14C yesterday, it should be on at least 13.0C now? Have they started doing adjustments during the month?

 

EDIT: Yep, looks like at first 2 days at least have been adjusted downward.

 

Yes you are right. Mostly there are changes in the minimums, This is what they had published to the 6th on friday for minimums versus now.

 

Cet

Day   Fri   Mon

1   7.4   6.4

2   6.5   5.3

3   6.4   5.9

4   7.3   7.4

5   9.3   9.5

6   8.4   8.4

 

3 changes for max's but they are smaller, only 0.1-0.3 on 3 days.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Based on this mornings GFS 0Z ensembe  mean, we should see something like the following from the CET

 

9th   13.0

10th 13.0

11th 13.0

12th   13.3

13th   13.4

14th 13.4

15th 13.5

 

 

There after no strong signal for any move from around this with it continuing 13.4-13.5 till the 25th.

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Hard to say what the result will be given the lower than expected averages but the charts certainly have a look of 15C+ to them.

 

Realise that your comments a couple of days old, and there is still a big variation possible given that even the end of the GFS is  still 5 days short of the end of month, but I don't really agree. The ensembles have consistently pointed to something slightly cooler than average ie < 14c being more likely than >14, with the air coming from between North to west with warm uppers seeming to only be temporary at best. No wash out but nothing particularly warm.

[DAVID SNOW]

13.0c to the 8th

 

 

And 13.0 to the 9th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 7.9C while maxima look like reaching about 15C, so 12.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z op run has the CET around

12.9C to the 11th (12.8]

13.1C to the 12th (15.9)

13.3C to the 13th (15.2)

13.3C to the 14th (13.3)

13.4C to the 15th (14.6)

13.4C to the 16th (13.7)

13.4C to the 17th (12.9)

 

[Weather-history]

It has struck me we have yet to record a CET daily mean of 15.0C this year.

That is late.

[Relativistic]

It has struck me we have yet to record a CET daily mean of 15.0C this year. That is late.

At what time of year would you expect this to occur?

[Weather-history]

At what time of year would you expect this to occur?

Usually record at least one by the end of May.

[Relativistic]

Usually record at least one by the end of May.

Thanks, well behind then.

[The PIT]

Could well happen today. Overnight min 14C day time max 18C or higher

[SomeLikeItHot]

Most of the CET area seems to have got down to around 8-9 at around 2am from what I can tell today. So maybe not today, but certainly looks quite likely to get around 15-16 on weds and thursday.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Usually record at least one by the end of May.

 

Based on my own calcs of the CET daily record, on average about 16-17th of may is the first >=15C CET day. Presuming we get one on the 12th that would put it as the 15 or 16th latest year since 1772.

 

Latest year was 1972 when the first > 15 CET day was 13th of July. That year had the coldest June of the 20th C at 11.8, only 0.3 above the coldest on record.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Still no updates now for 3 days, since the 9th. By my monitoring of temps we would have had approximately,

 

10th    13.0 (13.25)

11th 13.1 (13.25)

12th   13.3   (15.5)

 

A value of 13.3-13.4 seems likely to the 12th.

 

Working from there the current GFS0z ensemble mean puts it at

 

13th 13.4 (14.5)

14th  13.3   (13.0)

15th  13.3   (12.5) 

16th 13.2   (12.0)

17th 13.1   (12.0)

 

And there after staying generally cool arounds 13.2-13.3 towards the 28th. Using aveage temps for those last two days (ie daily CET around 15) , would take it to 13.4-13.5

 

At this very early point it looks like something in the range 13 - 14.4 is likely, with something closer to 13.3 - 13.9 most likely, but there is still some chance of some really warm spell in the last week so there is still risk on the upside.

 

 Anyway at this point based on the GFS ensembles something below the 61-90 average for the 6th month in a row is the most likely outcome.

Edited June 13, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Don]

Anyway at this point based on the GFS ensembles something below the 61-90 average for the 6th month in a row is the most likely outcome.

Could you imagine the prospect of having six months in a row below the 61-90 average 5 years ago?!

[SomeLikeItHot]

If the CET is 14.1 or below for June, the the rolling year CET will be below 9 for the second consecutive end of month.  EOM Dec 2010 is the only other month end below 9 that has occurred since 1987.

Edited June 13, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot