June 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[AderynCoch]

Well my bold guess of 16.0C is toast now. There may not even be a 16C daily mean at this rate.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Could you imagine the prospect of having six months in a row below the 61-90 average 5 years ago?!

Yeah Stratosferric was surprised if we had seen only one let alone six!

[Harve]

I wouldn't be so sure of a cool June just yet; both unsettled and settled weather can each give both warm and cool CET values.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I wouldn't be so sure of a cool June just yet; both unsettled and settled weather can each give both warm and cool CET values.

 

It's certainly not guaranteed but the flow of air is generally from the NW which means in general a lack of any real warm uppers and a lower average.

 

Over the last few months, taking the ensembles average temps from mid month has been a reasonable predictor of where we will end up -  generally each estimate falling within about 0.3 of the final result from around mid month.

 

At this point we already have half the average locked in, and the forecast for the next 7 days or so can be expected to be reasonably accurate.

 

Most of the variability is likely to occur in the last week. if we had a full last week of CET average of say 17, we would just get to average CET around 14.2. Its possible then we could get a warmer than average month but not likely at this point.

[summer blizzard]

I wouldn't be so sure of a cool June just yet; both unsettled and settled weather can each give both warm and cool CET values.

 

Whilst that is the case, for unsettled weather that only typically occurs when warm uppers are drawn in a pronounced warm sector (it's also less likely in summer with a maritime flow being cooler than a continental one).

 

Models in recent days have swung definitely towards the cool camp..

 

Minimum today is 7.9C while maxima look like reaching about 15C, so 12.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z op run has the CET around

12.9C to the 11th (12.8]

13.1C to the 12th (15.9)

13.3C to the 13th (15.2)

13.3C to the 14th (13.3)

13.4C to the 15th (14.6)

13.4C to the 16th (13.7)

13.4C to the 17th (12.9)

 

Any chance of an update?

[Summer Sun]

Still no update from the met office it remains stuck to the 9th

 

Philip Eden has it at 12.3°C to the 10th

[DAVID SNOW]

Still no update from the met office it remains stuck to the 9th

 

Philip Eden has it at 12.3°C to the 10th

 

 

Still stuck...............

[IanR]

My very low 12.4 does not seem that extreme after all  !!

Edited June 16, 2013 by IanR

[The PIT]

Sat at 13.4C here in Sunny Sheffield

[Summer Sun]

Philip Eden has us at 13.2c to the 15th

 

Rainfall is at 48% (16.1mm)

 

Sunshine is now at 128% (123.7hr)

[SomeLikeItHot]

My very rough estimate of where we are at is around 13.3 to the 16ths but given that from the 9th I am estimating the track myself could easily be out by a bit. Hopefully we can get a proper update of it today.

 

Anyway if that is correct then I expect that we will see a rapid rise to around 13.8-13.9 by thursday (quite a nth south split possible here depending how much the warmth gets north. makes working out what the average will be tricky), before falling again into the weekend to around 13.6.

 

Following the GFS ensemble mean  we would perhaps end up 13.6-13.8 at end of month before corrections.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Still no update. My estimate of the CET is somewhere near 13.5 for the 17th - but I would put a bit of margin of error there.

 

Anyway based on the above the GFS 6z ensemble mean would jump to  13.9 in the next few days before falling back to near 13.7 at end of month. Given the uncertainty in the starting point I'd probably make that estimate 13.6-13.9. 

[Relativistic]

Anyone have any idea as to why the figure is at a standstill?

[The PIT]

Probably too cool and not showing enough warming so they'll be moving a few Stevenson screens onto solid concrete next to air conditioning units. Perhaps they've lost the password to the web site or the guy who updates is on holiday.

[Cutty Dyer]

Anyone have any idea as to why the figure is at a standstill?

 

Nope, but I emailed the Met Office yesterday to report the lack of updates; reply came the same day stating that they will look into it. 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Cutty Dyer

[Lettucing Gutted]

Remarkably as long as the cool values return soon every month this year so far has recorded a lower frequency of warmer than average nights than December 2012 and even the anomaly of the warmest nights compared to average so far this year is lower than the warmest nights back in December 2012 compared to its average.

[Relativistic]

Nope, but I emailed the Met Office yesterday to report the lack of updates; reply came the same day stating that they will look into it.

Thanks.

[noggin]

Probably too cool and not showing enough warming .....

Ah, thank you for saying that, Pit. I've been wanting to say it for a few days but was fearful of the possible backlash.I am glad to see that the comment has been well received!

[The PIT]

I'm probably on the Met office hit list now.

 

Anyway Sunny Sheffield up to 13.7C Should be another big bump tomorrow so a good chance of hitting average here.

[Summer Sun]

Met check have the CET at 13.10°c

 

Whilst Netweather have it at 13.92°C

 

Philip Eden has is at 13.2°C  to the 15th

[SomeLikeItHot]

An update finally.

 

CET to the 19th is 13.6 (13.65)  to the 19th.

[Correction:  I originally had 13.7, but it seems they are showing 13.65 on the daily list as 13.6 on the front page? - perhap as 13.65 is rounded up from 13.645 or something?]

 

Since the 9th its gone.

 

10th  13.0

11th  13.0

12th  13.1

14th  13.2

15th 13.2

16th 13.2

17th 13.3

18th 13.4

19th   13.6

 

Incidentally the first day with CET > 15 was the 18th not the 12th which didn't quite make it.

Edited June 20, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

So With that last comment, this is the 6th latest year to have a CET > 15 since 1772.

 

Looking ahead, at the GFS 0Z ensemble mean we get something like

 

20th  13.7  (14.5)

21st 13.7  (14.5)

22nd  13.7  (12.5)

23rd 13.6  (12.5)

24th   13.5  (12)

25th   13.5  (12)

26th   13.4 (12.5)

 

There after rising slowly to around 13.5 by the end of month before corrections. Looking like a very good chance now of 6th consecutive month below all recent 30 year averages, and second end of month in a row with annual running CET mean < 9.

[summer blizzard]

My prediction's looking pretty good i would say.

[Methuselah]

It's not part of the Great Universal Global Warming Conspiracy, then?

[SomeLikeItHot]

It's not part of the Great Universal Global Warming Conspiracy, then?

 

Yes, very very, suspicious. They waited till the warmest three days of the year passed before updating again!