East Pacific Invest Thread 2013

[summer blizzard]

With the East Pacific season already begun and having produced one dud i thought i would create a thread to separate discussion from the Atlantic.

 

Perhaps a mod can pin this.

 

............................

 

First order of business is that the GFS18z has a tropical depression at day 6 and a hurricane by day 9 with what looks like impact in Mexico.

 

GFS12z also agrees...

 

[summer blizzard]

Looks like a classic model battle, ECWMF says nothing (though looked like maybe a Tropical Depression) while subsequent GFS runs say that in 6 days time we have a hurricane slamming into Mexico. The NHC say........... Lemon!

 

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Upgraded to 30% and declared 91E.

 

Turns out however it is not the same storm the models are going gaga for and the ECWMF 12z has latched on this evening so 2 systems to look at for the next 5-10 days here.

[summer blizzard]

Reduced to a lemon and split into three, appears to be too many competing vorticees.

[summer blizzard]

91E back up to 20%.

 

92E (the forecast system) has emerged from the mess and is a mandarin at 40%.

[Somerset Squall]

91E down to 10%. Little going on with this one as it drifts westwards further out to sea. Convection is lacking.

 

92E now up to 50%. Convection is becoming persistant, and although the LLCC is not well defined at present, it seems to be detaching itself from the ITCZ. Models are keen on bringing 92E ashore on the south coast of Mexico as a tropical storm or even a low end hurricane. Conditions are very favourable for perhaps some rapid strengthening IF the LLCC gets itself together in time before landfall.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 80% for 92E.

 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 90%, can't see much of a center though.

[summer blizzard]

91E back to 30% and now moving N/NE so staying in warm water and possibly headed for landfall if it develops.

 

Behold however the weirdest thing i have ever seen.

 

[Somerset Squall]

92E became Hurricane Barbara.

 

91E now up to 40%. The LLC is well defined, but partially exposed. Six hours ago, convection had completely diminished from the system, so the current convection is very recent. The partially exposed LLC is an indicator of shear which may slow further development.

[summer blizzard]

East Pacific red meat... We have something at 10% which should be declared an invest tomorrow and we have multiple models suggesting 1/2 canes in around 5-6 days (i assume it's this system at 10% now)...

 

 

Could have a track like Jova.

[summer blizzard]

94E declared, a mess at the moment though.

 

[mezzacyclone]

Messy enough for a "special" (22:05 UTC) Update SB?
The Western most system has become an elongated upper trough and forecasts to merge with the more progressive Eastern disturbance through Monday?
Looks to be full of energy & improving by the hour to me?
21:45 UTC

[summer blizzard]

Does look better tonight.

[summer blizzard]

94E now cherry at 60%. 95E now mandarin at 30%. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thought ye folks might appreciate this GFS animation of the Fujiwhara effect from the other day (even if its just a model!)

 

[summer blizzard]

95E.. Not sure why it's not a TD now...

 

 

 

94E.. Much broader but bigger.

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Persistance I guess SB, because 95E is not looking well at all this morning, with little or no convection associated with it. Looks dangerously close to being swallowed by the very large 94E to the east too. 95E's development chances as stated by NHC remain at 30%.

 

NHC have raised 94E's development chances to near 100% this morning, so they are confident of the invest becoming a tropical depression soon. 94E appears in good shape this morning, with expanding convection over the LLCC, and some curvature and banding evident. Will probably get upgraded this afternoon or tonight.

[summer blizzard]

Aye, it's puzzling how it clearly had a defined circulation but with shallow convection it's probable that it never went to the surface and its waned since.

 

94E does look good.

[summer blizzard]

95E being absorbed now by the looks of things.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, 95E is moving eastwards now, clearly being dragged into Tropical Depression 03E. Down to 10% chance of TC formation according to NHC.

Edited June 24, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

We have 96E roughly where Cosme originally formed. Good rotation and some persistant convection, NHC give 70% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours.

[summer blizzard]

Looks good. Track seems to bring it close to the Mexican coast as a potential hurricane and recon may be needed in their additional day outlook.

 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 90%.

[summer blizzard]

Posted in wrong thread...

 

Nice low level rotation...

 

 

As Mezz said in the other thread there are factors helping it.