Chase Day 15 - Slight risk N TX/OK Panhandle

[nsrobins]

After the events of the last few days, a return to the comparatively leisurely meanderings around a very slight risk of discrete cells in far N TX and the OK panhandle. A post CF modest moisture return will spread slowly into the region beneath a warmer layer, but colder air aloft will aid development should the inhibition be breached. NAM and RAP are reluctant to make anything of it but the far end of HRRR does develop a cell around Guymon/Boise, OK at 00Z so a few evening storms are possible in this area.

I am not convinced the Caprock will do much to help so I'm thinking the wide, flat fields of the OK Panhandle may be the place to be with a slight NE drift at the surface under a veering S to SW at 850mb.

The RAP may offer more clues by 12Z.

Edit: Could a moderator change the title to 'Text' risk following SPC update.

Edited May 22, 2013 by nsrobins

[nsrobins]

Update: Meagre pickings this evening but a few cells are possible far W OK Panhandle/far NW TX on the NM/CO corner.
Might be worth a trip out, or perhaps take a chance on a rogue cell forming with a bit of upslope nearer to home in the Caprock.

Enhanced chances Thurs in the same area.

[Paul Sherman]

Have already changed it to Day 15 Neil as cant really see anything around here today, so use this thread for tomorrows risk

[nsrobins]

Thanks Paul. Have a relaxing day's downtime and I'll have a look at the Slight Risk due Thurs evening in due course.

[Stu Robinson]

My first forecast after Monday… But today has me interested in Severe storms forming over the Texas Panhandle

 

Target: Groom, just East of Amarillo, TX

 

Should be an 3-4pm show with storms firing along a frontal boundary – the exact final location of this boundary will be critical to today’s final target but I do expect it to be within 50 miles of Groom. Storm motion will be South East. Forecast hodographs actually don’t look too bad (Pampa to Shamrock)  on the nose of a moist plume being pulled North West and up over the cap rock. I am expecting Supercells and a window of opportunity for tornados 5 – 8pm.

[nsrobins]

Not much to add to Stuart's analysis other than I like the vectors just North of Groom on the I60 between Pampa and Canadian, TX.
For a post CF scouring the moisture return is quiet impressive actually, but as Stuart says hourly obs will be important to see where the boundary is sitting as this will be key to initiation.
And 95degF at 3pm. Phew!

[Roger J Smith]

I expect a wave to form in southeast Colorado moving slowly out into southwest Kansas. This may force the best cells a bit further north with a target between Springfield CO and Liberal KS. Then on Friday the same feature will become more of a warm frontal wave leading hot, humid air further east and this will make east-central KS the place for the cool kids to be.

[chionomaniac]

06Z NAM suggesting initiation slightly SE of Amarillo ( Caprock region) around 2100Z.

 

 

I would want to be somewhere in that vincinity around that time.

[Nick F]

Yes, looks like the cap rock escarpment just east of Amarillo will do its magic later, so for me would be the best place to sit and wait in the sun admiring the views east while the moist E/SE flow gets forced upslope to form those storms later.

 

08z HRRR shows precip breaking out along the Cap Rock Escarpment later at 23z (5pm CDT):

 

 

HRR and NAM showing upwards 3000 j/kg CAPE building by this afternoon, so going to be some big hailers.

 

And with 850mb winds from the S and surface winds from the E/SE, enough shear combined with high CAPE for one or two tornadoes I imagine.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Nick F

[nsrobins]

Tricky. I don't deny the initiation and development looks primed for E or SE of AMA but my target of Pampa is based on shear and SRH. Big hailers over the Caprock agreed but for the best chances of rotation towards tornadic rotation I think teh cells need to be edging into the eastern section of teh TX Panhandle and not ESE into the Caprock.
Deep layer SRH up to 300 around Canadian but I see the 10Z RAP has upgraded the EHI to around 7+ further south along the I40 which is interesting.
All fine detail and will change, watching those obs for the dryline, but IMO Pampa is the place to be.

[Nick F]

By-the-way, 500mb winds from the west later, so storms that form over the Cap Rock Escarpment likely to move east off the Escarpment towards SW OK and north central TX, so the team could end up in Childress for the night again!!

Edited May 23, 2013 by Nick F

[ItIsGee]

By-the-way, 500mb winds from the west later, so storms that form over the Cap Rock Escarpment likely to move east off the Escarpment towards SW OK and north central TX, so the team could end up in Childress for the night again!!

 

its a nice place, i like it!

[Nick F]

its a nice place, i like it!

 

A few years ago, when I stayed there, it was still in a 'dry' county so you had to drive 20 odd miles to get a beer. Now it's wet, so certainly a nicer place than it was! Childress is really just a long strip of hotels, gas stations, restaurants, walmarts etc along the Highway To Heaven, though it certainly sees it's fair share of supercells when Netweather have been chasing, so often we end up waiting around the area for initiation and its the only town to stay overnight for some distance too.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Nick F

[dave48]

Todays slight risk has been widening and upgraded to moderate.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[nsrobins]

Todays slight risk has been widening and upgraded to moderate.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Actually not surprising and a case of events overtaking expectations. 

The expected OFB from the current mess over OK may coincide with initiation and DL incursion from the west overcoming the upper ridge and cap by 21Z.

I still think the Northern edge of the now MDT risk area will be the place to be but time will tell.

[Nick F]

Todays slight risk has been widening and upgraded to moderate.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Seems the combination of a trough moving in from the SW and OFB moving S/SW from morning storms over Oklahoma will perhaps combine over NW Texas which is why they've upgraded the tornado risk to 10% and hail risk to 45%. Slow-moving supercells moving SE should mean it's a relaxing chase keeping out of trouble.

[Tom Lynch]

We want to open our arms to the European Market and so we add a multi international flavour to our breifing

 

 

Tom

[Paul Churchley]

You bunch of loonies!

 

What fun

[Team Jo]

Hilarious! Anglo German French

[Arron]

On our way to the town of Clarendon TX, the home of churches and crosses for lunch

[IanM]

Ah the cross town, I have a feeling you might want to persuade Jim not to scare the locals...

[Stu Robinson]

15z HRRR blows up a huge supercell near to Turkey by 20z. Storms will be slow moving but given the general south East motion I would be tempted to position just a tad further south of Clarendon. Looking at surface Obs the area Turkey to Plainview   looks like a sweet spot with strong wind convergence and upslope occurring. The whole area still looks capped as per SPC MESO analysis but I expect this to erode…

[Arron]

Too late Ian

 

Just gonna gas up and then head south Stuart

[Stu Robinson]

The day is set

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0782.html

 

[Stu Robinson]

Looks like we have a storm forming just now 20 mile South East of Turkey. NW are on route to investigate.