Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Costa Del Fal]

This would just about sum up our weather.

 

 

Christ, that really would feel it was just Britain being singled out from Summer. Its really worrying actually how we are just constantly being sent these ghastly low pressure systems. As ive said before, worrying for future summers if this one turns out as rubbish as the last 6.

[Evening thunder]

Absolutely, I was just going to post that chart as well - Frosty must be a blinding optimist and hats off to him for trying.

The strong northern blocking signal is still a dominant feature from ECM and the subsequent south tracking jet will maitain the cool wet / showery weather for as long as can reliably be forecast. Any hope of dry warm weather is fanciful at the moment, good stuff to try to raise moral but with no realistic prospect of it materialising.

 

Some ground frost possible next week as hinted at by METO.

 

 

Those ensembles show mean temps around average though further out with pressure not too low either. A specific warm chart is just as likely to be right/wrong as a specific cold chart. Not sure if the ECM ensembles will reach average when they come out though.

 

I actually find the ECM run a bit of an improvment, better than the UKMO which would be cool and damp really. The ECM should keep things brighter for the most part but with showers developing during the day but perhaps not too many showers as the low centre is away from the UK. 

 

Despite what Frosty says, no real sign of any summery weather but hopefully the ECM is onto something with keeping the low to the West of us, rather it be that than what the UKMO is showing.. 

 

I'd actually prefer the UKMO run, the ECM just brings colder,sub-zero uppers into the west once again similar to the GFS which would probably result in the higher CAPE and instability kept further east with mainly just the SW missing out (where I will be next week) as shown by the GFS charts. The UKMO brings the low centre over us down here which is likely to be more unstable and provide more sunshine/slow moving heavy thundery showers for my location with more instability like the GFS has shown when it brought the low over us.

 

Just due to personal preference and location though of course. Looking at it again I can see how the UKMO would be worse for the NE instead.

Edited May 23, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

After a wobble over the past few days the ENS has gone back to its idea of a settled start to June

 

[ANYWEATHER]

And before I go to sleep here is a chart from the CFS for Frosty and Gavin,,,,,Goodnight , Sweet dreams....  

[J10]

what is the talk and cool and unsettled weather , it has been mostly sunny here and quite warm all week, a few showers today giving the only rain this week.

 

A decent bank holiday to follow, at least until the end of Sunday, Clearly a bit more unsettled at the start of next week from the west, but to me it is interesting to see how quickly the trough lifts away, today's runs more promising than yesterdays, but any more accurate?

[peterf]

More like early March for here today.

[weather_it_will]

what is the talk and cool and unsettled weather , it has been mostly sunny here and quite warm all week,

 

I only call it warm if I don't need a coat, but I have needed a coat since the 8th May.

 

In my house I am wearing a pure wool jumper.

 

It is clearly not what I call warm here.

 

I would call it warm if I can go out wearing a short sleeved shirt without a coat and feel comfortably warm.

 

There is nothing on the charts I call warm.

[damianslaw]

On average late May/early June often delivers at least some sort of decent dry warm sunny spell - in my personal opinion it is the best time of year for the NW of the country if you want decent weather for outdoor activities, and is far more likely to see more settled weather than the heart of summer and August in particular.

 

Alas just in time for the bank holiday just like the last one the dice appears to be landing on a '4' - at least a couple of dry sunny quite warm days looks likely for most of the country, so can't really complain, but is hardly going to be a heatfest.

 

Next week the models support a continuation of the current pattern i.e. ridge to our SW and weak shallow trough feature squeezing itself into position over the country anchored by weak ridge development to our NE - its a pattern which has dominated the best part of the last 6 summers.

 

It does all feel a bit 'close' but yet so far at the moment in terms of a pronounced pattern change to sustained dry sunny warm weather with high pressure overhead.. indeed its been ages since we have seen anticyclonic conditions overhead during the May-August periods, such patterns have been reserved for the colder part of the year.

 

I'll be giving my thoughts on the summer as a whole soon, my feeling is for a generally average one, much drier than last year, but with limited lengthy dry sunny very warm spells, if we see the current trough squeezed dry in time for June then early June could possibly end up being the best part of the summer I feel..

[Guest pjl20101]

This is the latest output from the CPC noaa 8-14 day model and looks like most of the country could look set fair except for the se corner which would be closer to the lp:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Not bad, but could be better and the MJO needs to start some movement really to get a better picture of what actually is going on.

[TonyH]

what is the talk and cool and unsettled weather , it has been mostly sunny here and quite warm all week, a few showers today giving the only rain this week.

A decent bank holiday to follow, at least until the end of Sunday, Clearly a bit more unsettled at the start of next week from the west, but to me it is interesting to see how quickly the trough lifts away, today's runs more promising than yesterdays, but any more accurate?

Meanwhile 40 miles away its been very cool and cloudy but fairly dry this week!

[summer blizzard]

Poor runs outside the tropics for me. With that said like this week it looks at least fairly dry with showers over fronts (being inland next to Pennines here this saves me from the rainfall).

[IDO]

The last two FI runs on the GFS (T384):

We appear to be looking at the remnants of the PV energy dissipating. The flow from the NW looks like its on it last song or two. The Atlantic looks relatively blocked and the jetstream is fragmented:

Potential for some interesting weather with higher pressure and slow moving LP systems interacting: The trend is for a warm/hot continent: so if we can drag in that flow we may get a more prolonged warm spell.

The ridge over the BH weekend should give the SE a fair Sunday and Monday, as the trough slowly moves in from the NW:

By Wednesday it is modeled again to be a slack affair and this allows the AH to ridge NE:

A slow process as it eventually moves to Iceland/Scandinavia. The benign flow on this run maintains the cut off trough close to the SE so an unsettled theme possibly for southerners, late next week onwards:

ECM in agreement in the reliable, D6: GFS:

So more hopeful that the current synoptics will end after D10. Not sure what follows yet.

Edited May 24, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[mushymanrob]

Let`s stick to current outputs please Mushy.

No point in going back over old ground people can have different interpretations-why not just put your pov based on the latest runs?

 

i think thats abit unfair phil, refering to recent gfs outputs to guage its current reliability is surely relevant to the current outputs.

 

Maybe because that's what the GFS is showing, and this is the model output disscusion...?

 

indeed, but its the emphisis placed on these favoured charts, its biased and a tad misleading, because they are not the only option and are not a certainty.

 

well.... this mornings models are interesting. the ecm and ukmo are now suggesting that northern ridging will take place, much as the gfs has been doing in fi... but the 00z gfs drops that idea! lol.. i dare say itll be back.

 

so im not as sceptical as i was yesterday, as there is some growing support for a more settled sunnier warmer early june.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is trying hard to give us something settled as we head towards June this morning

 

Edited May 24, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

The best news this morning is the Ecm 00z which looks much better than the 12z last night with the trough filling and high pressure taking over, the Gem 00z looks very nice at T+240 hours and the Gfs 00z is also showing a trend towards a warmer and more settled outlook, especially for the north & west of the uk, the charts later in FI look very benign and mostly high pressure dominance, some pleasant charts here to start the day.

 

In the meantime we have a fine and pleasantly warm bank holiday weekend to look forward to as a ridge of high pressure slowly drifts across from the west, there is still a ? about monday, the 00z op runs show unsettled and windier weather spreading east during monday but there is still a chance that central and eastern parts of the uk could be looking at 3 fine days before it turns unsettled with rain followed by sunshine and heavy showers before pressure begins to rise strongly to the northeast and southwest.

[Gibby]

Hi Folks. Here is the report of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday May 24th 2013.

Today shows all models with a Low pressure area close to SE England with a cold and blustery Northerly flow on it's Western flank. This moves away late today and tonight with a ridge of High pressure bringing warmer and drier weather for all areas over the weekend in light winds. By Bank Holiday Monday pressure falls again as a Low pressure area deepens to the NW of the UK and pushes a trough Eastwards across the UK in true Bank Holiday fashion bringing rain for all at some point though it may be the end of the day before it reaches the SE of England. Through next week the weather over the UK is then governed by the behaviour of this depression.

GFS has it sliding SE across the UK and away to the SE leading to a cool and showery week with some bright and warmer sunny intervals for the favoured between the showers. By the weekend a slack NW flow looks likely with an upper trough relaxing South over the UK. Winds will then slowly turn towards the NE or East with High pressure building to the North. Further showers would occur becoming restricted to the South later with the North becoming dry and bright as well as somewhat warmer. Through the rest of FI the North continues to see the best of the conditions with the South remaining at risk of showers as low pressure close to the South or SW is maintained. Temperatures would improve though and it would feel rather warm in places, especially in any prolonged sunnier spells.

The GFS Ensembles show generally improving levels to a point more average or above with time though we may have to be patient. The North looks favoured for the best of the conditions as High pressure looks more likely to be close by here while Southern areas though warmer could still see scattered showers but plenty of dry and more importantly warmer weather here too.

The Jet Stream continues to flow SE either over then to the West of the UK towards Southern Europe. The flow weakens later and becomes diffuse around the UK and the Atlantic Ocean.

UKMO today shows Low pressure in control of the UK weather centred on Thursday over Germany having crossed the UK in previous days. The legacy will be a light to moderate North to NE flow with sunshine and scattered daytime showers over the UK especially towards the SE.

GEM today shows Low pressure too close to SE England next Thursday before a strong build of pressure from the West later brings a spell of fine and warm conditions for next weekend.

NAVGEM keeps High pressure further to the SW following the exiting depression later next week with a resultant NW flow maintaining cool conditions with sunshine and scattered showers in places to close the run.

ECM today tries hard to build High pressure in from the West late next week but does so in a half-hearted manner as an upper feature could maintain a showery pattern over the UK despite pressure above 1020mbs for many with most of the showers in the north and west. It would at least feel rather warmer though.

In Summary I am optimistic of something of an improvement in the longer term charts this morning backed up by the GFS Ensembles. It's well agreed that we will have to endure yet another depression's wind, rain and showers at times next week but beyond that there is a good chance that things will turn rather warmer with temperatures near average or a little above as we move into June. Without full blooded High pressure sat over the UK to say that all areas would become totally dry would be foolhardy at this range but it does indicate that there would be a fair amount of dry, bright and warm weather to be found beyond next week though the odd showers would still be possible. I await tonight's 12zs with interest to hopefully see a maintained trend.

[Frosty.]

If we zoom in and take a closer look at the Gfs 00z for the next few days, it's looking peachy with light winds and plenty of sunshine with temperatures recovering well after the cold day today, sunday looks the warmest day with 19-20c in some central and eastern areas but with a few showers breaking out across central areas, monday is much more problematic, it all depends on the timing of the depression pushing fronts in off the atlantic but southeastern britain could have another largely dry and pleasantly warm day, the north & west look cool, wet and rather windier on monday though.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

More good news, this time from the Ecmwf 00z ensemble mean, it shows pressure becoming high to the southwest & northeast with a generally more anticyclonic outlook for the uk with light winds and long sunny spells, not completely settled but much better than the recent/current pattern overall and becoming pleasantly warm, the cool trough retreating back to Greenland, a summery start to summer has taken another step closer this morning.

[Frosty.]

Those of us who are now fed up with the coldest spring since 1979 will be happy with the way the latest ensemble mean is trending, the ecm ens mean has improved significantly and the Gefs 00z mean goes from strength to strength and shows the Azores anticyclone having a major impact as we progress into early/mid June, it shows the cool trough conditions disappearing back where they came from and summery synoptics take control, the gefs charts further into FI in particular are peachy, now we have the ecm getting on board, the more settled and warmer further outlook is more of a realistic prospect.

[Barry12]

If the ECM stays on board with high pressure into June I will be much more positive, but has anyone noticed the good weather is always a week away!?

Edited May 24, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

 but has anyone noticed the good weather is always a week away!?

What about the settled, sunny and warmer weather tomorrow, sunday and monday?

[Barry12]

What about the settled, sunny and warmer weather tomorrow, sunday and monday?

 

That is true, but I'm talking about warm temperatures into the 20's with prolonged sunshine. 16-17C is all we'll achieve in Yorkshire with sunny intervals, but it will be much better than today atleast

Edited May 24, 2013 by Barry95

[William of Walworth]

I'm a bit with Barry on the need for continued caution. Although yes I do agree Saturday and Sunday are looking pleasant for many, and that's near enough to now to be almost nailed on. Beyond that though ... well it's nice to see most models firming up a rising pressure/warming up trend for next weekend and beyond. But I want that trend to be confirmed/maintained over more runs, and across the different models, over the next few days, before I start to get properly confident. I'm still a little scared that we might have to endure yet more flipflopping in the outputs, akin to what we've seen on some models of late.

Edited May 24, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Peejayem]

I'm a bit with Barry on the need for continued caution. Although yes I do agree Saturday and Sunday are looking pleasant for many, and that's near enough to now to be almost nailed on. Beyond that though ... well it's nice to see most models firming up a rising pressure/warming up trend for next weekend and beyond. But I want that trend to be confirmed/maintained over more runs, and across the different models, over the next few days, before I start to get properly confident. I'm still a little scared that we might have to endure yet more flipflopping in the outputs, akin to what we've seen on some models of late.

Exactly...we've been here before in the last couple of weeks and until consistency occurs over several runs then I'm very wary of charts deteriorating with cool troughs peppering the UK once again...and the gloaters all over the thread once again like a cheap suit

Edited May 24, 2013 by Peejayem

[Frosty.]

That is true, but I'm talking about warm temperatures into the 20's with prolonged sunshine. 16-17C is all we'll achieve in Yorkshire with sunny intervals, but it will be much better than today atleast

Probably 20-21c in eastern england on sunday, the gfs tends to undercook max temps, monday looks better than the 00z with a warmer and brighter day (19c) but with some showers breaking out ahead of the main rainband.