Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is trending in the right direction with a bonus later next week, a nice ridge pushing east with next friday and into the weekend being warm and sunny but then we have an unsettled blip with sunshine and showers as one of those pesky troughs decides to drop anchor over the uk, however, it's only a minor setback and the further outlook trends anticyclonic and very warm and sunny with eventually a large blocking high to the east although with lower pressure to the southeast, there would probably be a risk of afternoon storms and increasing humidity from the near continent, probably drier and sunnier further northwest.

[Purga]

06z send more energy south than the 00z

 

Not likely to produce the kind of warmth etc the most seem to be imagining.

[Frosty.]

Not likely to produce the kind of warmth etc the most seem to be imagining.

It's not in our imagination. it's what the models are showing, especially the ens mean. I'm really looking forward to the settled and warm outlook just to annoy those who relish cool unsettled weather charts.

[Purga]

It's not in our imagination. it's what the models are showing, especially the ens mean. I'm really looking forward to the settled and warm outlook just to annoy those who relish cool unsettled weather charts.

Well you've been foecasting and waiting for it since early march so I guess we've had a good run for our money.

Admittedly the 06z ENS show a warming trend BUT it's right out in FI and we know how that tends to flip!

 

In the meantime we've got some potential sleet or snow to get through today, even in parts of the south higher up.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Purga

[Weather Boy]

Exactly...we've been here before in the last couple of weeks and until consistency occurs over several runs then I'm very wary of charts deteriorating with cool troughs peppering the UK once again...and the gloaters all over the thread once again like a cheap suit

 Although I agree that caution is (as ever) required, especially at this range, it's not correct to say "we've been here before".  At no stage have we had cross-model agreement on a settled outlook.  The ECM was firm in rejecting the GFS's keenness on HP domination and was proved right.

 

A look at Gibby's summaries should confirm this for you.

 

Reasons to be optimistic, I feel, although cautious.

[Frosty.]

Well you've been foecasting and waiting for it since early march so I guess we've had a good run for our money.

Admittedly the 06z ENS show a warming trend BUT it's right out in FI and we know how that tends to flip!

 

Actually I haven't, and it will warm up soon.

[Frank Trough]

06z send more energy south than the 00z

 

 

 

 

Not likely to produce the kind of warmth etc the most seem to be imagining.

 

Heavens to Purgatroid, you're right there, no real warmth showing as yet. We're saving up the above average temperatures for November through to January and i notice the CFS is firming up on this idea as can be seen by this morning's run:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

 

very mild winter to come if the CFS is on the right track which i'm sure it will be. As i've heard numerous times on here, "things always balance themselves out in the end".

[William of Walworth]

Right! I'm away from 3 pm, and will be away for the w/e too. I have sternly instructed myself NOT to look at any models/charts/forecasts til Monday. So that Met Office update doesn't exist for the time being in my eyes ....

Edited May 24, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Evening thunder]

Pharaoh Clutchstraw, on 24 May 2013 - 13:27, said:

Heavens to Purgatroid, you're right there, no real warmth showing as yet. We're saving up the above average temperatures for November through to January and i notice the CFS is firming up on this idea as can be seen by this morning's run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php

very mild winter to come if the CFS is on the right track which i'm sure it will be. As i've heard numerous times on here, "things always balance themselves out in the end".

That shows an above average June, July and August though?

Also in relation to some previous posts it looks like I must be imagining the charts that some models are showing and are being posted in the model output discussion thread then

Maybe further out and uncertain, but so is cooler weather at further out time frames and each have just as much right to be discussed surely?

Edited May 24, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Frosty.]

On the other hand the METO outlook is not quite as encouraging.....ironically, they had been more optimistic when the models weren't quite as solid looking for a settled outlook

I don't think it's that bad really, sunshine and heavy showers with hail and thunder at worst, there would be long sunny spells for some due to the nature of showery weather and feeling pleasant in the sunnier interludes. I think there is still a lot of positives to take from the gefs mean this morning and the ecm, so the met office update could easily flip to a more settled further outlook.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Frosty039

[Bristawl Si]

At least we seem to be avoiding any prolonged wet spell, in contrast to some recent summers.

Sunshine and showers not that untypical, if that's what transpires over coming weeks.

[summer blizzard]

Not bad in FI but heat still on the fringe in FI...

 

[phil nw.]

Some recent posts have been deleted because they were argumentative and added nothing to Model Discussion.

There are separate threads for the Met Outlook and other general talk about cold or warm prospects-refer to my first post for links.

 

If you disagree with another member's view on the models then the most effective response is to politely post with some data to back your view up whether it be a chart or link.Having a go at each other is not the way to go.

 

OK back on topic please.

Thanks all.

[Summer Sun]

BH Monday is shaping up to be a windy one for many of us with rain only slowly moving west to east with UKMO and GFS both bringing a 980mb low

 

 

Tuesday sees the low easing to 1000mb on UKMO with GFS going for 995mb

 

 

By Thursday GFS is going for a rise in pressure from the west at the same time lower pressure is shown over Iceland once again

 

 

EDIT

 

UKMO also supports a rise in pressure from the west and lower pressure over Iceland

 

 

Edited May 24, 2013 by Gavin.

[AWD]

This is the UKMO model at T144;

Correct me if I'm wrong but is that trough over the Iceland area not likely to head SE, a day or two later just like the last low and the one next week is forecast to do, over the UK and flatten the ridge of HP in what seems to be a rinse and repeat pattern currently?

Edited May 24, 2013 by AWD

[Summer Sun]

Much better run from GFS this afternoon back to its original idea of building pressure as we head into June

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[J10]

I only call it warm if I don't need a coat, but I have needed a coat since the 8th May.

In my house I am wearing a pure wool jumper.

It is clearly not what I call warm here.

I would call it warm if I can go out wearing a short sleeved shirt without a coat and feel comfortably warm.

There is nothing on the charts I call warm.

I talking about the weather here, clearly we have had much better weather here than you have.

Meanwhile 40 miles away its been very cool and cloudy but fairly dry this week!

40 miles away can make a world of difference in weather as you well know,

 

On Monday, our local area was the only part of the UK in sunshine. Indeed from Last Saturday through to Wednesday there was decent amounts of to full sunshine every day from Saturday through to Wednesday, even Thursday and Friday saw sunshine.

Clearly locally with such conditions we are well sheltered from the mountains to the North, and as such we got better conditions than you.

As such much prefer this weekend weather to South Westerly winds.
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Edited May 24, 2013 by Jackone

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows a fine and warmer weekend coming up as a ridge of high pressure drifts across from the west, then turning cooler and more unsettled from the west by early next week with sunshine and heavy thundery showers but later in the week another atlantic ridge pushes east and brings a fine and warm few days with temps into the low 70's, rather than becoming unsettled again like the 6z, the 12z builds a large atlantic/azores high to the west of the BI which slowly transfers northeastwards past nw scotland so it would bring a spell of settled weather with average temperatures but also a few showers as we drag in a cooling N'ly to NE'ly flow. The position of the high in FI will make a big difference to surface conditions, we don't want it to drift west into the atlantic as the 12z shows with a trough spreading down across scandinavia, luckily, if that does happen, by early/mid june there won't be any cold air to tap into. It's still a good outlook in terms of high pressure finally gaining the upper hand for a change and there is some warm days indicated as well as cooler.

[049balt]

It looks like the West will get the best of any good weather over the next few weeks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This weekend's weather is looking like it will have a split between mainly cloudy weather over East Anglia and the SE, rain over Ireland, and dry and mainly sunny weather in between, before the rain spreads in from the west on Monday.  Conversely, for East Anglia and the SE, Monday may well be the warmest and sunniest day of the Bank Holiday weekend, for the rain belt doesn't look likely to reach those areas until the following night.

 

I think calling the long-term outlook "settled" is a gross oversimplification.  The longer-term outlook is quite a common one for early June, with high pressure centred close by in the eastern Atlantic and mainly northerly winds on its eastern flank over the British Isles.  Temperatures tend to be below average in this setup, rainfall tends to be below average, and sunshine can vary either way from average, though it is often relatively sunny in the west and relatively dull in the east.  Shallow troughs on the eastern flank of the high pressure sometimes bring relatively changeable weather, and the following ECMWF chart at T+192 is quite a typical example of this.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130524/00/ecm500.192.png

 

A deep cold northerly sourced from the Arctic will often be bright and showery, with the driest and sunniest weather towards the west, while a modified version with relatively high 850hPa temperatures will tend to bring mostly dry weather but with a greater chance of central and eastern areas being affected by banks of stratocumulus and the warmer temperatures being reflected through higher night-time minima.  I remember that this transition happened in the second week of June 1995, we had a showery northerly on the 7th-9th and then mainly dry but cloudy conditions during the 10th-15th as the Arctic air got mixed out from the NE.

 

It is, however, a drier and sunnier-looking setup than we had for a large majority of last June- even if sunshine amounts end up down on average in the east they are likely to be somewhat less so than they were last year.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[049balt]

This weekend's weather is looking like it will have a split between mainly cloudy weather over East Anglia and the SE, rain over Ireland, and dry and mainly sunny weather in between, before the rain spreads in from the west on Monday.  Conversely, for East Anglia and the SE, Monday may well be the warmest and sunniest day of the Bank Holiday weekend, for the rain belt doesn't look likely to reach those areas until the following night.

 

I think calling the long-term outlook "settled" is a gross oversimplification.  The longer-term outlook is quite a common one for early June, with high pressure centred close by in the eastern Atlantic and mainly northerly winds on its eastern flank over the British Isles.  Temperatures tend to be below average in this setup, rainfall tends to be below average, and sunshine can vary either way from average, though it is often relatively sunny in the west and relatively dull in the east.  Shallow troughs on the eastern flank of the high pressure sometimes bring relatively changeable weather, and the following ECMWF chart at T+192 is quite a typical example of this.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130524/00/ecm500.192.png

 

A deep cold northerly sourced from the Arctic will often be bright and showery, with the driest and sunniest weather towards the west, while a modified version with relatively high 850hPa temperatures will tend to bring mostly dry weather but with a greater chance of central and eastern areas being affected by banks of stratocumulus and the warmer temperatures being reflected through higher night-time minima.  I remember that this transition happened in the second week of June 1995, we had a showery northerly on the 7th-9th and then mainly dry but cloudy conditions during the 10th-15th as the Arctic air got mixed out from the NE.

 

It is, however, a drier and sunnier-looking setup than we had for a large majority of last June- even if sunshine amounts end up down on average in the east they are likely to be somewhat less so than they were last year.

 

 

What you say is very interesting, how did the second half of 1995 play out weather wise?

[J10]

This weekend's weather is looking like it will have a split between mainly cloudy weather over East Anglia and the SE, rain over Ireland, and dry and mainly sunny weather in between, before the rain spreads in from the west on Monday.  Conversely, for East Anglia and the SE, Monday may well be the warmest and sunniest day of the Bank Holiday weekend, for the rain belt doesn't look likely to reach those areas until the following night.

 

I think calling the long-term outlook "settled" is a gross oversimplification.  The longer-term outlook is quite a common one for early June, with high pressure centred close by in the eastern Atlantic and mainly northerly winds on its eastern flank over the British Isles.  Temperatures tend to be below average in this setup, rainfall tends to be below average, and sunshine can vary either way from average, though it is often relatively sunny in the west and relatively dull in the east.  Shallow troughs on the eastern flank of the high pressure sometimes bring relatively changeable weather, and the following ECMWF chart at T+192 is quite a typical example of this.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130524/00/ecm500.192.png

 

A deep cold northerly sourced from the Arctic will often be bright and showery, with the driest and sunniest weather towards the west, while a modified version with relatively high 850hPa temperatures will tend to bring mostly dry weather but with a greater chance of central and eastern areas being affected by banks of stratocumulus and the warmer temperatures being reflected through higher night-time minima.  I remember that this transition happened in the second week of June 1995, we had a showery northerly on the 7th-9th and then mainly dry but cloudy conditions during the 10th-15th as the Arctic air got mixed out from the NE.

 

It is, however, a drier and sunnier-looking setup than we had for a large majority of last June- even if sunshine amounts end up down on average in the east they are likely to be somewhat less so than they were last year.

 

Looking back over the last number of years, excluding last year, western areas have tended have the better weather in June, while August weather has tended to be better in the east.

 

Also in sheltered SW areas, temps can be better than average in these setups in any sunshine. In any case I'd take the current forecast weather over Last June, even if it does mean wet days like the one forecast for Monday,

[Frosty.]

What you say is very interesting, how did the second half of 1995 play out weather wise?

The summer was hot, especially august, it was a scorcher and with severe water shortages.

[049balt]

The summer was hot, especially august, it was a scorcher and with severe water shortages.

That is very interesting because a long range forecaster, Ken Ring at www.predictweather.co.nz has predicted that this Summer will be similar to that of 1995 with the heat starting in the end of June.

Are the models gearing up for a re run of 1995?

Edited May 24, 2013 by 049balt

[SunnySouthCoast]

On Monday, our local area was the only part of the UK in sunshine. Indeed from Last Saturday through to Wednesday there was decent amounts of to full sunshine every day from Saturday through to Wednesday, even Thursday and Friday saw sunshine.

Clearly locally with such conditions we are well sheltered from the mountains to the North, and as such we got better conditions than you.

As such much prefer this weekend weather to South Westerly winds.

------------------------------------------------

 

 

We had sunshine down here too on Monday & the rest of this week, today has been the most overcast day& still only a tiny amount of rain has fallen. We are sheltered from northerly/north westerly winds here & as such the Solent Met station has been one of the warmest in the UK this week & warmest on a couple of days too