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Chase Day 18 - Slight Risk High Plains


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Quite a large slight risk area today stretching from the Edwards Plateau in SW Texas all the way up to the Canadian border with Montana and North Dakota.

     

    Forecast surface analysis shows a lee low over the central high plains today with a dryline moving east into Wern KS, Wern NE and SW SD later, with a stationary front lying E-W across Wyoming and Sern South Dakota.

     

    NAM shows strongest shear and CAPE overlap across Wern Nebraska and breaks out precip in this area 00z-03z (5-8pm CDT):

     

    post-1052-0-19398900-1369576359_thumb.gi post-1052-0-50123100-1369576376_thumb.gi

     

    post-1052-0-28314900-1369576408_thumb.gi

     

    I suspect storms will fire in the Black Hills of western South Dakota too, but I'm drawn to western North Nebraska, maybe towards North Platte, for rotating storms later, particularly as the low-level jet cranks up later, NAM shows 850mb winds rapidly increasing from the south 00z onwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    We're off! Heading towards Chadron for lunch. I too like the North Platte area with a great looking sounding but we'll try and keep both areas in play until some more data is available :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol

    We're just sat by Enders Resevior about 40 miles southwest of North Platte......just waiting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    pushing east now from Valentine. Well, actually I'm not - I'm burning food on the bbq with my girlfriend telling me to leave the laptop alone, but you know

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol

    Looks like there's some towers going off just north of Hays Kansas on the satelite so we're gonna head that way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Heading towards Thedford, NE now. The scene of my first supercell 5 years ago!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Heading towards Thedford, NE now. The scene of my first supercell 5 years ago!

    Probably not far off there, Arron. I might be 30 miles further east with the nose of richer moisture now pushing in from the SE but it's splitting hairs. If a decent cell can get going there's actually quite a shimmy in C NE as the 850mb flow strengthens from 22Z.

     

    Good luck and hope you get some structure.

     

    Sam - you and your barbeques LOL.

     

    Edit - just checked obs. 68F dps now into target area. No wonder there's upwards of 4000 CAPE available,

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Yep looks good over there and nice to be out of the mist and drizzle now :D MD issued for central NE too !

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol

    The towers we were watching died. We then headed up to the Nebraska MD area but it has since been removed. Might stay in North Platte tonight then head to Hastings tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    The only thing preventing cells developing along the receding WF across C NE at the moment must be the thin mid/upper-level clouds just keeping the CIN the wrong side of zero - as it should have dissolved by now really.
    I see from vis sat that there is a cu field along the I83 so it may happen in the next half hour.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Towers trying to punch through now in front of us, just coming in to Thedford

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    On our way SE now towards the cells that's gone up south of Broken Bow :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    Arron that must look incredible! 4500 cape and 400-500 esrh - supercell composite of 36!

     

    Go on team!

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
  • Location: Long Ashton, Bristol

    Noticed a funnel has been spotted, did you see it?

     

    We haven't got a chance of getting to it now. One word springs to mind.....bugger!

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