Chase Day 18 - Slight Risk High Plains

[Nick F]

Quite a large slight risk area today stretching from the Edwards Plateau in SW Texas all the way up to the Canadian border with Montana and North Dakota.

 

Forecast surface analysis shows a lee low over the central high plains today with a dryline moving east into Wern KS, Wern NE and SW SD later, with a stationary front lying E-W across Wyoming and Sern South Dakota.

 

NAM shows strongest shear and CAPE overlap across Wern Nebraska and breaks out precip in this area 00z-03z (5-8pm CDT):

 

 

 

I suspect storms will fire in the Black Hills of western South Dakota too, but I'm drawn to western North Nebraska, maybe towards North Platte, for rotating storms later, particularly as the low-level jet cranks up later, NAM shows 850mb winds rapidly increasing from the south 00z onwards.

[Arron]

We're off! Heading towards Chadron for lunch. I too like the North Platte area with a great looking sounding but we'll try and keep both areas in play until some more data is available

[RichB]

Have good day.

[Dorsetbred]

You would have to read North Platte into those charts for today.

[samadamsuk]

Valentine/Neb for me - Good Luck NW Team! 

 

Samos

[Tim]

We're just sat by Enders Resevior about 40 miles southwest of North Platte......just waiting!

[samadamsuk]

pushing east now from Valentine. Well, actually I'm not - I'm burning food on the bbq with my girlfriend telling me to leave the laptop alone, but you know

[Tim]

Looks like there's some towers going off just north of Hays Kansas on the satelite so we're gonna head that way.

[Arron]

Heading towards Thedford, NE now. The scene of my first supercell 5 years ago!

[nsrobins]

Heading towards Thedford, NE now. The scene of my first supercell 5 years ago!

Probably not far off there, Arron. I might be 30 miles further east with the nose of richer moisture now pushing in from the SE but it's splitting hairs. If a decent cell can get going there's actually quite a shimmy in C NE as the 850mb flow strengthens from 22Z.

 

Good luck and hope you get some structure.

 

Sam - you and your barbeques LOL.

 

Edit - just checked obs. 68F dps now into target area. No wonder there's upwards of 4000 CAPE available,

[Arron]

Yep looks good over there and nice to be out of the mist and drizzle now MD issued for central NE too !

[Tim]

The towers we were watching died. We then headed up to the Nebraska MD area but it has since been removed. Might stay in North Platte tonight then head to Hastings tomorrow.

[Arron]

Patience Tim.......

[nsrobins]

The only thing preventing cells developing along the receding WF across C NE at the moment must be the thin mid/upper-level clouds just keeping the CIN the wrong side of zero - as it should have dissolved by now really.
I see from vis sat that there is a cu field along the I83 so it may happen in the next half hour.
 

[Dave846]

Looks like it's all dieing out further south. Some decent storms in Montana today by the looks of things.

[Arron]

Towers trying to punch through now in front of us, just coming in to Thedford

[Arron]

On our way SE now towards the cells that's gone up south of Broken Bow

[samadamsuk]

look at that structure!!

[samadamsuk]

Arron that must look incredible! 4500 cape and 400-500 esrh - supercell composite of 36!

 

Go on team!

[samadamsuk]

id bet on a tn warming soon the way it looks on radar

[Arron]

Wow  what a storm this thing is :o

[Tim]

Noticed a funnel has been spotted, did you see it?

 

We haven't got a chance of getting to it now. One word springs to mind.....bugger!

[samadamsuk]

850's screaming in!

[samadamsuk]

that whole line looks like it could get pretty rough!

[samadamsuk]

watching the updraft & meso - what a storm -