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Chase Day 19 - Discussion KS/NE


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    This looks like an amazing day of chasing coming up, I fully expect there to be 1 or 2 Tornadoes around for North Central Kansas or South Central Nebraska today, some of the soundings are scary for a Strong Tornado to occur when the LLJ Kicks in. We are already in the 10% Hatched Tornado Box so a late start for us, not expecting initiation until 5-6pm CDT.

     

    Regards

     

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Paul I just posted the exact same thing on the Sunday thread. No need to repeat it LOL - a quick coffee and croissant glance at the RAP and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MODERATE for an area of NC KS for this one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    South central Nebraska looking good on the 09z HRRR, by 00z (5pm CDT), strong 0-1km shear in this area and it breaks out precip in this area too. Like Paul says, no need to travel far to get into position, I would head towards somewhere like Hastings for a late lunch and just sit and wait.

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    post-1052-0-49729900-1369659332_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Upgrade to Moderate on the latest Day 1 outlook, hail increased to 45% probs, tornadoes still 10% though area expanded more over Kansas:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

     I suspected an upgrade earlier this morning. Not withstanding the excellent looking flow parameters, it's late may in N Kansas. Go figure!

    I'm going to take a closer look at 17Z once the inlaws have been BBQ'd and watered.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    In the mean time watch that scorpion dosen't have a sting left in its tail..!!

    post-5386-0-78799100-1369666555_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    LOL - it's the scorpion that's causing the problems for later. I am expecting a lively evening for far NC KS. The above MCS will throw an OFB westwards into the WF regime with some really decent CAPE and SRHs of 350+ focussed on the area by 21Z Initiation shgould occur by 21.30Z in a line Lebanon KS to Red Cloud NE, with an adjustment east possible nearer the time depending on teh Cu field response to the forcing from the OFB.

    Hodos look conducive for rotating supercells (turn in lowest 1km) and LCLs suit low bases. First major tor oppotunities IMO since last Monday.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    On the road now, heading towards Hebron for lunch. Had a quick scan of the models this morning and liking the area NE of Salina, maybe a bit further south. We'll see how things evolve on our drive to lunch. Ingredients are there for quite an active day; I just hope the locals stay tuned to the TV/Radio!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Yep HRRR composite puts two large discrete cells between Concordia and Belleville KS at 21Z. Given the helicity and lapse rates I reckon there's a high chance of these cells going ballistic and tornadic in quick time.
    HRRR has performed well with ppn initiation in the last week or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    12Z NAM likes the area NE of Salina as well.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
    Posted · Hidden by Boro Snow, May 27, 2013 - No reason given
    Hidden by Boro Snow, May 27, 2013 - No reason given

    enjoy ya subway good.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    If you click on the surface obs of the following link and double click just north of Salina, then you will see that all the red bars are in position and it is only a matter of time now........

     

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14&parm=bigsfc&underlay=1&source=1#

     

    Shear is very favourable when the cap busts:

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    When the cap busts?
    18Z RAP has the cap holding until 21Z in NC KS now. Big decision to make in the next 15 mins IMO. Stay where you are (drift south a bit maybe) for an explosive initiation in a couple of hours, or go West for initiation earlier but maybe less of a tor risk here.
    Not checked SPC but I suspect some sort of MD/tornado watch will be needed for NW KS in the nexrt half hour then for NC KS from 21Z.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    MD issued for

    AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KS 

    Cap remains strong so as Chiono has said initiation still a few hours away.

    http://weather.cod.edu/text/#

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    MD issued for

    AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KS 

    Cap remains strong so as Chiono has said initiation still a few hours away.

    http://weather.cod.edu/text/#

    OK, but having issued that and what I posted a few minutes ago if you look at 17Z HRRR composite it still wants to break the cap and build cells NC and C KS at 21Z. It's possible - the instability is very impressive and the loaded gun scenario may be a gamble worth taking.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Latest update puts the moderate zone slightly further west

     

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Did I just spot a small cumulus cloud on the streaming?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Yup :) Heading west now from Belleville KS to get NE of that low pressure in western KS :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Would say target Hoxie KS between Hill City and Goodland ... as Gulf moisture is advected northwest around the low, the advancing line of storms from Colorado should become increasingly severe with cell development gradually extending south from the interstate, but motion of cells will be northeast. There may be several good cells to chase between Goodland and Great Bend when this matures.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Liking the cumulus field developing on the stream.  Time to keep an eye on the echo tops now to see if there are any breaking through....

     

    Edit - possibly picked one up NE of Beaver City, west of Oxford, Nebraska.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    The pot is bubbling away nicely - but has not quite come to the boil.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Some more signs that initiation occuring around Arapahoe, NB as spotted by Chiono.

     

    Also note obs show the increase in ESE flow across target area in last hour. This will enhance already looped hodos I would think. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I think things are about to kick off now - it won't be long for a tornado watch I would imagine.

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