east pacific Hurricane Barbara

[Somerset Squall]

The second tropical depression of the 2013 East Pacific season has formed from invest 92E. 02E is located near the Gulf Of Tehuantepec off the southeast coast of Mexico. The disturbance has taken a while to organise as it moved little, but 02E finally has a well defined circulation and convection has built over this circulation over the last 6 hours.

 

Intensity is 30kts. 02E is in an area of low shear and warm sea temps, so the only thing arguing against significant intensification is proximity to land. 02E is expected to drift northeastwards and make landfall in SE Mexico in about 24hrs time, so 02E only has this amount of time to intensify. So I think the NHC's forecast of a peak of 50kts is a fair one, and could even be a little generous based on past behaviour of this system (slow consolidation). Having said that, the central core of convection could mean some fairly quick intensification may be about to occur. Bottom line is that 24hrs over water isn't really enough to allow strengthening past moderate to strong TS. Therefore, the primary concern is flooding rains.

 

[Somerset Squall]

02E has consolidated significantly overnight, and has become Tropical Storm Barbara, with sustained winds now at 45kts. The cyclone has a small central dense overcast feature obscuring a now tight LLC. Barbara could continue to rapidly intensify given the toasty sea temps of 30C, and the non-exsistant shear.

 

Barbara has drifted eastwards overnight. The lack of northward motion will give Barbara slightly longer over water, and it is not out of the question for Barbara to achieve minimal hurricane status before landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Barbara has continued to rapidly intensify, winds are up to 55kts now. A partial eyewall has been noted, and Barbara is probably going to become a hurricane later today.

[summer blizzard]

Looks pretty nice, some northerly shear slowing down strengthening.

 

[Somerset Squall]

A small eye is appearing, I expect Barbara to become a hurricane next update.

 

Interesting reading from Jeff Masters' most recent blog:

 

Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29.

 

According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997

 

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2419

[Somerset Squall]

And here we go, Barbara is now a 65kt hurricane, impressive as the system was only designated a tropical depression a little less than 24hrs ago:

 

HURRICANE BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP0220131100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.8N 94.3WABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICOA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDWITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Somerset Squall]

Close up of Barbara:

 

[Paul]

Jo has written a blog about TS Barbara:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5188;sess=

[summer blizzard]

Especially impressive that the models got such a good grip on it so early.

[summer blizzard]

Impressive from the Mexicans as well, rather than waiting for the American NHC they did not even wait for the update and upgraded to a hurricane warning at 3.25 (their time or ours, not sure)..

 

Radar from earlier showing the eye...

 

 

 

Extremely impressive RI event.

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting to note aswell that Barbara could survive the trek across land and emerge into the Atlantic basin in the Bay Of Campeche. If this did occur, Barbara would retain it's name. It'll be touch and go with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, but Barbara is crossing at a point which will take it across a short stretch of land.

[summer blizzard]

Interesting to note aswell that Barbara could survive the trek across land and emerge into the Atlantic basin in the Bay Of Campeche. If this did occur, Barbara would retain it's name. It'll be touch and go with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, but Barbara is crossing at a point which will take it across a short stretch of land.

 

The vorcity will survive however the circulation will be destroyed.

 

Just about making landfall.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Barbara has made landfall. Some interesting stats from NHC:

 

THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

[Somerset Squall]

The next NHC update is going to be interesting. Barbara has weakened to a tropical depression but has emerged into the Bay Of Campeche.To my untrained eye, although Barbara looks a bit dishevelled, its LLC looks to still be in tact. Has she made it I wonder? IF Barbara is still a TD then it'll be the first basin cross over between these two basins since Caesar-Douglas in 1996.

[summer blizzard]

Wow it made it. Won't be for long though unless it strengthens rapidly again because the low level steering flow is easterly so another immanent landfall. It probably has tonight to either fly or die with the durinal max.

 

[summer blizzard]

Also a local station apparently reported 988mb and what may be upgraded to 80/85mph.

[Somerset Squall]

Also a local station apparently reported 988mb and what may be upgraded to 80/85mph.

 

Yeah, it was certainly stronger than 65kts at landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Close, but no cigar say NHC:

 

REMNANTS OF BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013THREE SURFACE OBSERVING SITES NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO HAVE BEENPERSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...YETHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING AWEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THESE SITES.  APPARENTLYTHE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EITHER NOT AT THE SURFACE OR IS EXTREMELYWEAK AND ILL DEFINED.  SINCE BARBARA DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINEDCENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEPCONVECTION...IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ANDADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.  OUR OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT ISTHAT BARBARA DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICALCYCLONE.ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATEDWITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERNMEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDESWILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  30/2100Z 18.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER PASCH

[summer blizzard]

The old circulation is truly dead however one of the old outflow channels appears to have taken the lead and may need watching. No circulation yet but looks interesting.

 

[summer blizzard]

Her track including as an invest, it's a shame she recurved given the distance from the coast was near perfect for shallow, warm water.