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Chase Day 21 Discussion - MODERATE risk N TX, W OK, W KS


nsrobins

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    A very juicy set-up this evening characterised by significant deep layer shear. Very deeply looped hodos on the Elk City, OK soundings on 06Z RAP are typical for the area. Sharp DL for me as an initial target but this could be a big afternoon for far W OK and the TX panhandle. From SPC: POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF CENTRAL OK IN ADDITION TO WESTERN KS. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A COUPLE POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT ACCENTUATED BY A DIURNALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    HRRR out to 20Z and it's a messy picture TBH. Early convection from 16Z clutters the field but as it moves slowly east towards C OK the slot left behind remains to the east of the DL and potential OFB initiates discrete cells in the central TX Panhandle.
    I might be in Elk, OK but I'd be looking towards AMA up to Guymon, OK if HRRR is to be believed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Looking at the models, dryline doesn't look like moving very far east, reaching the border between the TX Panhandle & western Oklahoma and into SW Kansas before retreating as the cold front surges SE. So far west of Oklahoma looks like prime territory for  chasing supercells that fire on the dryline and produce tornadoes before the storms cluster and move further east into OK and KS overnight.

     

    850mb (LL) southerly jet really cranking up 00z onwards, along with an increasingly divergent and cyclonically curved mid-upper level flow, so some strong tornadoes possible. LL shear on GFS and NAM looks particularly enhanced across western Oklahoma, eastern TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle. Sayre, OK on the I-40 would be my initial target. Though think the team are in Perry, north of OK City overnight and they may not want to go as far west as the TX Panhandle border, with changeover tomorrow I believe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Going for Sayre too. The  west OK panhandle border looks favourable for any dryline cells with moisture convergence, and good contrasting and strong 500 hPa and sfc wind vectors which will aid the shear when cells kick off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    This afternoon/evening is all about the helicity IMO. Strongest speed vectors with height for a while in a swathe across N TX into SW KS.
    Still too early to call on target but early initiation likely Elk City I agree but the big movers and shakers IMO will be further west towards Canadian, TX to Guymon OK from 21Z.
    PS: The Cattle Exchange, Canadian. Any opportunity I have to stop there for lunch I will take it. What a peppered steak!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    PWO from the SPC.

     

    Starting to get jittery about the forecast shear values - the latest RAP, combined with the PWO, has me looking EAST not west from my Elk City position.
    Maximised EHI and SRH now in WC OK from 22Z so those storms off the DL will have a shuffle to get into the really strong shear environment. If they do (say 30 miles west of the I35 corridor), then very strong mesocyclonic storms are pretty much a certainty.
    As of now I'm completely torn as to where to go, and if I had time I'd be looking for subtle influences in the obs to help.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    SPC have upped the tornado risk to 15% across Wern Oklahoma/Ern TX Panhandle:

     

    THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
       IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR DODGE CITY SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX
       PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TO AROUND CHILDRESS WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY
       BACKED. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS...A 15 PERCENT
       TORNADO CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED FROM SW KS SWD INTO NW TX WHERE
       LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT
       LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING. SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
       POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Not enough time to check all models so will sit tight in Sayre currently. Looks like there is the possibility of an early trigger (18Z) distracting things from a stronger but later show (23Z). 06Z 4km NAM certainly suggests this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    I think the text will likely be adjsuted east in the afternoon update. 13Z RAP confirms that greatest LLJ is now just west of the I35. I hope it doesn't adjust further east as the folks in OKC don't need it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    No news from the tour? Possibly having a easy morning ready for a busy day.
    Playing cricket this evening so will check in after 20Z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    On the road from our "special" stay in Perry, OK biggrin.png Heading west, probably towards Woodward and then south. Will keep a check on data while on the move.

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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

    Special stay, the mind boggles!

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    Posted
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Home - Hutton, Essex / Work - Camden Town, London

    On the road from our "special" stay in Perry, OK biggrin.png Heading west, probably towards Woodward and then south. Will keep a check on data while on the move.

     

    Woowar!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Central KS looks primed also but I guess team needs to be in OK which also looks good, would say Clinton to northwest OKC metro eventually and potential for F3-4 tornado development. Let's hope these take a more rural route.

     

    Probably no bad place to position given the complexity of cells likely to fire up, but the big kahuna of the day is probably going to be further east than the dryline's current or even 21z positions, as with the general history of this set-up, polar front seems to be the more active zone and it can be analyzed as leading edge of 18-20 C dew points impacting on 22-24 C dew points. That's why I think Clinton east might pan out best. In fact RGEM shows complex in s.w. OK heading across south-central OK this evening so even closer to DFW might be good for storms and better for staging.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Firing off early this evening along the dryline, already two strong cells just east of Amarillo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Heading west from Woodward to get a closer look at the dryline cells that have fired in the Texas panhandle :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    The cells that just crossed the Kansas border are still building in height now at 40000ft and heading towards Greeensburg

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Looks like the team are in Canadian, tornado warning on the storms to the south of Pampa, which is southwest of the team:

     

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
    314 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
      DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

    * UNTIL 400 PM CDT

    * AT 311 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
      SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS SEVERE
      STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODNIGHT...OR 10 MILES WEST
      OF CLARENDON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
      NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
      CLARENDON...          LELIA LAKE...         HOWARDWICK...
      GREENBELT LAKE...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
    STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
    OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
    YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    hey all.

     

    to me, most primed area seems to be south of where the NW team are for the next few hours - I suspect the southern end of that line coming off the dry line will get pretty interesting as it moves e/ne -

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

    Heading south to get in front of this line, top and middle portions tornado warned now :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    jees. that looks pretty intense. Not many people go camping in Texas in may without a weather radio I bet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Should be a tornado on the teams cell west of Wheeler

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    Posted
  • Location: Honiton/Devon/ UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Honiton/Devon/ UK

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