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Cutty Dyer
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    Very interesting 2012 MetOffice presentation posted on the lasp.colorado.edu website.

     

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    Extract from summary: • Increasing modelling evidence to support the observed modulation of the AO/NAO by UV solar variability. 

     

    It begs the question: in relation to the recent cold winters, why is the MET Office's Chief Scientist Julia Slingo placing so much emphasis on the possibility that "Arctic Amplification" is the cause?

     

    Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Very interesting 2012 MetOffice presentation posted on the lasp.colorado.edu website.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

     

    Extract from summary: • Increasing modelling evidence to support the observed modulation of the AO/NAO by UV solar variability. 

     

    It begs the question: in relation to the recent cold winters, why is the MET Office's Chief Scientist Julia Slingo placing so much emphasis on the possibility that "Arctic Amplification" is the cause?

     

    Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf

     

    Interesting presentation.

    Perhaps Julia Slingo focuses on the Arctic because it's undergoing rapid change and there is evidence for its influence on our weather? There is also important roles from snow cover, ENSO, AMO, QBO, etc, etc. Just because one thing has an effect, doesn't mean others aren't also investigated. No one thing will override in its influence on our weather, it's understanding the interactions between numerous drivers that's important, and thus it's important to investigates all reasonable possibilities.

     

    Here's a BBC piece on the UV/stratosphere/Arctic link.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    Interesting presentation.

    Perhaps Julia Slingo focuses on the Arctic because it's undergoing rapid change and there is evidence for its influence on our weather? There is also important roles from snow cover, ENSO, AMO, QBO, etc, etc. Just because one thing has an effect, doesn't mean others aren't also investigated. No one thing will override in its influence on our weather, it's understanding the interactions between numerous drivers that's important, and thus it's important to investigates all reasonable possibilities.

     

    Here's a BBC piece on the UV/stratosphere/Arctic link.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15199065

     

    I notice that in the French Meteo 2013 Summer forecast "A Year Without Summer?" Arctic influence isn't mentioned .

     

    Extract:

    A year without a summer? The combination of a long and late winter which resulted in a cooling of the waters in the seas and solar activity become very weak for several months may have a direct effect on the weather of our summer: some calculations considering an anomaly -2 ° to - 3 in France with rainfall totals twice higher than normal.

     

    Link: http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2013-05-25-09h04/meteo-2013---une-annee-sans-ete---21057.php

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    I notice that in the French Meteo 2013 Summer forecast "A Year Without Summer?" Arctic influence isn't mentioned .

     

    Extract:

    A year without a summer? The combination of a long and late winter which resulted in a cooling of the waters in the seas and solar activity become very weak for several months may have a direct effect on the weather of our summer: some calculations considering an anomaly -2 ° to - 3 in France with rainfall totals twice higher than normal.

     

    Link: http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2013-05-25-09h04/meteo-2013---une-annee-sans-ete---21057.php

     

    They don't mention a lot of important things in that forecast!

    In the summer, I believe it's the snow cover loss, rather than the sea ice loss, that most heavily influences our weather anyway (as far as changes in the Arctic goes).

    Considering that solar activity has been at it's highest for this cycle over the last few weeks, their interpretation of solar activity is a little odd.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    They don't mention a lot of important things in that forecast!

    In the summer, I believe it's the snow cover loss, rather than the sea ice loss, that most heavily influences our weather anyway (as far as changes in the Arctic goes).

    Considering that solar activity has been at it's highest for this cycle over the last few weeks, their interpretation of solar activity is a little odd.

     

     Highest (not quite) for this cycle - almost, but still very low in a historical context:

     

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    Current activity "low levels"

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

     Highest (not quite) for this cycle - almost, but still very low in a historical context:

     

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    Current activity "low levels"

     

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    Well, that graph is only up to April 30th, the sun spot number got over 200 about 2 weeks ago according to spaceweather.com

    Here's a graph of it anyway

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    While activity is well below recent solar maxima, it's still much higher than the grand minima periods and so I think it's influence will be slightly less. Unfortunately, the sunspot numbers and cycles don't tell us about UV fluctuations, which seems to be the important thing for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    Unfortunately, the sunspot numbers and cycles don't tell us about UV fluctuations, which seems to be the important thing for us.

     

    Sunspot numbers & solar UV output are in phase - the above MetOffice presentation demonstrates this.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Well, that graph is only up to April 30th, the sun spot number got over 200 about 2 weeks ago according to spaceweather.com

    Here's a graph of it anyway

    Posted Image

     

    While activity is well below recent solar maxima, it's still much higher than the grand minima periods and so I think it's influence will be slightly less. Unfortunately, the sunspot numbers and cycles don't tell us about UV fluctuations, which seems to be the important thing for us.

     

    I don't think this solar cycle was meant to be the 'grand minima' cycle anyway. I believe it's the next cycle which is of interest and could be the most comparable to the historic minima periods you suggest?

     

    As Cutty Dyer has said, I think solar activity in terms of sunspot frequency and UV fluctuations seem to be pretty well allied to one another.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Variation of global surface air temperature (HadCRUT4) and observed sunspot number (NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center; NGDC) since 1960. The global monthly average surface air temperature is a cooperative effort between the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), UK. The thin lines represent the monthly values, while the thick lines is the simple running 37 month average, nearly corresponding to a running 3 yr average. The variation in global temperature is about 0.2oC during one sunspot period, superimposed on the general increasing temperature trend during the period shown. The somewhat asymmetrical temperature 'bumps' around 1973 and 1998 are reflecting oceanographic El Niño effects. Last month shown: December 2012. Last diagram update: 5 February 2013.

     

    http://www.climate4you.com/

    post-12275-0-14235100-1369841962_thumb.g

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    Sunspot numbers & solar UV output are in phase - the above MetOffice presentation demonstrates this.

     

    Posted Image

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    They look somewhat similar, but hugely divergent in some aspects. Give me a correlation value between the two and we'll see! Could do with a few more details on the UV data collection too and the methods used in the graph.

     

     

    I don't think this solar cycle was meant to be the 'grand minima' cycle anyway. I believe it's the next cycle which is of interest and could be the most comparable to the historic minima periods you suggest?

     

    As Cutty Dyer has said, I think solar activity in terms of sunspot frequency and UV fluctuations seem to be pretty well allied to one another.

     

    Yep, this cycle was originally forecast to be very active (by most). Perhaps the next cycle will go grand minimum style, perhaps not. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

    Once more, with the phase thing, doesn't look all that strong to me. Why the big difference between enhanced UV and lean UV? How is the data collected? Did the met office say they were in phase? How strong is the correlation? Are there circumstances where they go out of phase?

     

    All genuine sceptical questions!

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Location: Devon

    They look somewhat similar, but hugely divergent in some aspects. Give me a correlation value between the two and we'll see! Could do with a few more details on the UV data collection too and the methods used in the graph.

     

    Yep, this cycle was originally forecast to be very active (by most). Perhaps the next cycle will go grand minimum style, perhaps not. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

    Once more, with the phase thing, doesn't look all that strong to me. Why the big difference between enhanced UV and lean UV? How is the data collected? Did the met office say they were in phase? How strong is the correlation? Are there circumstances where they go out of phase?

     

    All genuine sceptical questions!

     

    The relationship between solar UV output and the solar cycle was established way back in the late 70's (beginning of the satellite era):

    Posted Image

     

    As for your other questions, they're covered in the MetOffice presentation - why not click on the link and have a read?

     

    Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado...n_sorce2012.pdf

    Edited by Cutty Dyer
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    The relationship between solar UV output and the solar cycle was established way back in the late 70's (beginning of the satellite era):

    Posted Image

     

    As for your other questions, they're covered in the MetOffice presentation - why not click on the link and have a read?

     

    Pdf link: http://lasp.colorado...n_sorce2012.pdf

     

    I know we have bits and pieces from different satellites measuring Total Solar Irradiance, but they covered different parts of the spectrum, were calibrated differently and produced some different results. I'm not sure did they cover a consistent UV bands? Because variation across the UV part of the spectrum will impact the atmosphere in different ways.

     

    I can only see bullet points that are not intended to explain in detail or give background info. Even just to see what SIM measurements were, I had to look it up. It's the Spectral Irradiance Monitor on the SORCE satellite. With the OSF measurements, I'm guessing it's related to a ground facility in Chile, but I'm not sure as the acronym isn't explained.

     

    None of my questions are answered clearly in the presentation, it's all very vague, albeit interesting.

     

    Now I'm not saying there is no link between solar UV and our weather, the relationship seems quite plausible to me, but I'm not going to trust the work too much until I find answers to the questions I asked earlier

     

    Actually, this paper looks quite interesting Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

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    • 4 months later...
    Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

    This was posted over in the weather part of the forum, thought some of you may find it interesting:

     

    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045001/article

     

    I haven't had a chance to read it, but it's about another aspect of the Sun which may impact upon weather. It makes a nice change for new research to be open access, instead of behind a paywall.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extended Mediterranean heatwaves
  • Location: North Yorkshire

    Small point to note; the effects are 'small' and generally more useful (according to Slingo) on annual to decadal scales.

     

    Re your paper, J - good find - more interesting from the weather pov in addition to climate, since it deals with initial conditions, which are so critical to forecasting.

     

    A good source for open access science is the EGU/Copernicus programme. I use it all the time.

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

    Small point to note; the effects are 'small' and generally more useful (according to Slingo) on annual to decadal scales.

     

    Re your paper, J - good find - more interesting from the weather pov in addition to climate, since it deals with initial conditions, which are so critical to forecasting.

     

    A good source for open access science is the EGU/Copernicus programme. I use it all the time.

    Posted Image

     

    Thanks for the 'free access' pointer, pay-walls are so frustrating.

     

    I still haven't a chance to read the paper I linked earlier so can't comment really. The original link in the weather section included a blog commentary; from the brief description and interpretation there, I take it to be about more localised events and weather, rather than climate as such. It may however provide another clue when trying to figure out what's happening with localised events, such as the recent extremes in places like Russia, or indeed provide clues about Arctic ice loss/distribution. Figuring out what weather events can be attributed to climate change, and what can't, will I imagine be an important part of the puzzle to solve, not least because of the interest from the Insurance Industry.

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    • 4 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/nov/05/comprehensive-study-shows-cosmic-rays-are-not-causing-global-warming

     

    Well it looks as though we can finally 'bin' the 'Cosmic Ray' connection? (though eastern Europe may not be off the hook just yet)

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/nov/05/comprehensive-study-shows-cosmic-rays-are-not-causing-global-warming

     

    Well it looks as though we can finally 'bin' the 'Cosmic Ray' connection? (though eastern Europe may not be off the hook just yet)

    Errr, inconclusive I would say.

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/nov/05/comprehensive-study-shows-cosmic-rays-are-not-causing-global-warming

     

    Well it looks as though we can finally 'bin' the 'Cosmic Ray' connection? (though eastern Europe may not be off the hook just yet)

     

    Why would parts of Europe be affected by cosmic rays and not others doesn't make sense to me so I do not think we can 'bin' cosmic rays and the part they play just yet GW

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/nov/05/comprehensive-study-shows-cosmic-rays-are-not-causing-global-warming

     

    Well it looks as though we can finally 'bin' the 'Cosmic Ray' connection? (though eastern Europe may not be off the hook just yet)

    Aye Ian. On the balance of things, it clearly looks as if that one's been put to bed: the data are inconsistent with the hypothesis...

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/nov/05/comprehensive-study-shows-cosmic-rays-are-not-causing-global-warming

     

    Well it looks as though we can finally 'bin' the 'Cosmic Ray' connection? (though eastern Europe may not be off the hook just yet)

     

    Given the solar state has been fairly constant for almost a hundred years, the value of this analysis may be open to question. I suppose ongoing research, now that we are back to low ssn, will find other reasons why Europe is an anomaly; then again, maybe just a case of changing synoptics affecting Europe more than most.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Aye Ian. On the balance of things, it clearly looks as if that one's been put to bed: the data are inconsistent with the hypothesis...

    It's UV output and it's influence on the Hadley pressure cell what needs further investigations.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It's UV output and it's influence on the Hadley pressure cell what needs further investigations.

    Absolutely. Even more so, when one considers the fact that changes in Solar output are the very first drivers considered in any climate model.

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    I notice that in the French Meteo 2013 Summer forecast "A Year Without Summer?" Arctic influence isn't mentioned .

     

    Extract:

    A year without a summer? The combination of a long and late winter which resulted in a cooling of the waters in the seas and solar activity become very weak for several months may have a direct effect on the weather of our summer: some calculations considering an anomaly -2 ° to - 3 in France with rainfall totals twice higher than normal.

     

    Link: http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2013-05-25-09h04/meteo-2013---une-annee-sans-ete---21057.php

     

    They were way out -

     

    Temperatures

    After a very cool June, temperatures were summer in July and August, with a heat wave in the second half of July. Averaged over the season and France, the temperatures are above normal * 0.4 ° C.
    Full summer report (in French)
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