Chase Day 23 Discussion - MODERATE risk OK, KS, AR, MO, IL

[Arron]

Unplug it, and hold the power button to turn it off, then shut down Verizon software. Plug it all back in good luck today guys, stay safe. I won't be able to hang on to watch as I'm about to crash with sleep deprivation!

[samadamsuk]

(Does this help Tom?)

 

Go to  192.168.1.1. The password is your default wireless password for the Jetpack. I would make a few changes to see if your connection improves. Start by selecting WAN Settings, then Network Select. Please make sure that it is set to LTE/CDMA.
Next, check Wi-Fi Settings>Basic> Try switching your Network Mode to just B,G> Under Frequency/Channel Select Ch.1 or 11 to see if you notice a more stable connection as well.

 

[Tim]

traffic moving slowly through Moore

Paul or Ian        Verizon is connecting and disconnecting constantly   any suggestions

 

Tom

I've got the same problem Tom, think it's the network, maybe overloaded with chasers!!

[Tom Lynch]

Thanks all

 

I will see in a mo if its working ok

 

Tom

[cowdog]

In case you guys aren't aware seems like many people in the US are getting very worried about today. Seems like a few of the pro's are saying this has all the patterns to be a repeat of the May 3rd 1999 outbreak.

Going to be watching this one tonight, as its got potential for a lot of trouble, and maybe something historic.

Good luck those of you out there in it.

Edited May 31, 2013 by cowdog

[Tom Lynch]

how is the streaming now please?

[Dorsetbred]

How far west you planning on going Tom?

It's no good explaining to george about clouds he's a ground hugger...

Edited May 31, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[IanM]

The flag is set to live Tom, the connection has been temperamental around that area, it may be down to sheer volume of users on the network.  Good luck today!

[samadamsuk]

90f/77f just south of OK City! 5500 kj of cape there.

[SteveB]

If you a parked up looking at traffic, then your stream is working

[NL]

This is how it looks Tom.

[NL]

MD issued from SPC/NWS.

945   ACUS11 KWNS 311940  SWOMCD  SPC MCD 311940   OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-312115-    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013    AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY     VALID 311940Z - 312115Z    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT    SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO  SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN  21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED  SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN  EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.    DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT  FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE  LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW  BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN  TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST  AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING  INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS  SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION  BY 21Z.     STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL  PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE  DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION  NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO  THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE  SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  

[samadamsuk]

what's everyones take on the current setup by the way ? To me it looks like things only get seriously tornadic just before sundown and onwards, due to the low level flow - does seem to be an area of backed winds south of Oklahoma though

 

Cheers, Samos

[nsrobins]

Looking at latest obs and DL mixing I think a shift west for initiation is in order - Fort Cobb State Park up to El Reno by 20.30Z maybe.
Max shear also adjusted a bit west but LLJ still projected to move in with upper jet entrance flow across N OK later.
Ingredients in pace.

[Tom Lynch]

Thanks all   Quentin, in response to your question , not too far from here     PDS tornado watch just about to be issued for the whole of this area

 

 

 

Tom

[nsrobins]

Sam the 18Z RAP brings deep layer SRH of in excess of 600 into N C OK at 01Z.
You really don't see values like that juxtaposed with such immense instability very often. Hesitant to mention it but it looks very similar to April 2011 Alabama to me.

[samadamsuk]

Hi Neil -

 

Yes I did see that - my worry is though that this event will step up a gear when we start loosing light. Maybe I'm just not appreciating the time difference .. been a long week  

[Snowangel-MK]

Just seen this on facebook so I thought I would share it on here, although I'm sure your all aware....  

 

  NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center

 

 

 

 

A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch will likely be issued in the next hour for parts of Oklahoma. 

What does a PDS watch mean?

The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible.

Now is the time to make sure you have a plan in case you need to enact it later this afternoon/evening. Let your friends and family know your plans and share this info to give them a heads up so they can have a plan as well.

For more information see our Mesoscale Discussion:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0907.html

 

 

 

[NL]

The update from the SPC have not upgraded to high risk but do mention the possibility of a couple strong to violent tornadoes.

http://weather.cod.edu/text/#

Edited May 31, 2013 by NL

[robt]

Two TN watches currently in place..

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

 

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

 

VALID 311940Z - 312115Z

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

 

SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO

SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN

21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED

SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN

EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

 

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT

FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE

LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW

BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN

TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST

AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING

INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS

SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION  BY 21Z. 

 

STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL

PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE

DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION

NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO

THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE

SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

 

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013

 

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT.

 

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0149 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

 

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

 

VALID 311849Z - 312045Z

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

 

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR WILL YIELD

SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...TORNADOES

/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

 

DISCUSSION...TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG A

COUPLE OF SW/NE-ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS ACROSS FAR SERN KS.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND

APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD

FOSTER DEEPENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF

RAOB SUGGESTS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR

SUPERCELLS AND AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. THIS THREAT MAY BE

MAXIMIZED INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF

CNTRL MO.

 

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013

 

 

Theres a few cells look like they're going up to the north of Tulsa on the Oklahoma/Kansas border, and they're bimbling off towards SW Missouri.

[samadamsuk]

looks like winds are backing towards the dryline - wonder if anything will spark up west of the Lawton area soon ?

[robt]

According to Jeff Piotrowski, cells going up to the WNW of OKC..

[matty40s]

I am suffering from lack of sleep recently due to early starts (6am at work) and late finishes (falling asleep at laptop at 1am ish!!).

This last few weeks has been the best virtual storm chasing I have known in 5 years,not just one off evenings, but something happening almost nightly for quite a while.

Nights when I am off doing something else..... (sorry)....I seem to miss some big event as well.

Only another month and the hurricane season starts proper, a;though we have already had some action there as well.

 

Stay safe all of you out there, we do appreciate the footage and one of these years I hope to get out there too.

Edited May 31, 2013 by matty40s

[NL]

Tornado watch..PDS now issued.

555   WWUS20 KWNS 312028  SEL2    SPC WW 312028  OKZ000-010500-    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF     CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA    * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.     ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...    SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY    NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY    NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT      GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF  BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.  

[samadamsuk]

Just incase anyone needs it, an explanation of the SPC Mesoscale parameters http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/help/sfcoa.html

And the mesoscale page here - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#