Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Summer Sun]

Monday 10  our low arrives.

 

You sure?

 

Downgraded significantly from 12 hours ago

 

 

Compared to

 

 

 

That deep low out in the Atlantic will probably head our way however its been pushed back tonight so it could get pushed back further yet

 

 

t240 tries to send the centre of the low to the west of the UK maybe clipping the western side in the north all is going to depend on where the high sits as to how far west it can be kept

 

Edited June 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[AWD]

Tonight's ECM Op actually fits in quite well with earlier upper level height anomaly guidance.

The core of the trough always in the Atlantic, but with time, influencing the UK, particularly the north and west.

Becoming more changeable as we progress through next weekend then and into the following week with an increased risk of showers and rainfall, but far from a washout with sunny periods inbetween. Temperatures around average, cooler towards the north and west maybe.

All that after a sunny and increasingly warm week ahead of course.

[johnholmes]

Don't fret...haar haar...I'll get me coat...

I had to smile at that Pete, and yes a coat may be needed, as they say round herewen winds int east nai good for man nor beast!

[cooling climate]

i agree about min temps, but not max temps, anyway i can only judge for my area and with its max temps predictions it's not often wrong, min temps are wrong at times but other times like last night it is right, the UKMO always predicts high night time mins,  the bbc website is predicting 10c for my area tonight whilst GFS is predicting 4c, a silly difference when we are talking only 12 hours away, i'll make my own prediction and say it will be 7c so my crops should be fine

During the very cold weather in March in over did max temps for many parts of the south east.

I have found that the BBC normally shows min temps for city's more rural areas are often

several degrees warmer.

Edited June 2, 2013 by cooling climate

[Carlrg]

You sure?

 

Downgraded significantly from 12 hours ago

 

 

Compared to

 

 

 

That deep low out in the Atlantic will probably head our way however its been pushed back tonight so it could get pushed back further yet

 

 

t240 tries to send the centre of the low to the west of the UK maybe clipping the western side in the north all is going to depend on where the high sits as to how far west it can be kept

 

The BOM showed this low stalling in the Atlantic and getting pushed back a few days ago. Now that would be a feather in its cap if it came to fruition.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Carlrg

[J10]

Don't fret...haar haar...I'll get me coat...

 

 

Have you been pinching my joke book.

[johnholmes]

I do wish folk would stop using the expressions up/down graded.

In whose eyes?

Say what has happened when comparing the the two model runs rather than using such comments PLEASE

[Cheshire Freeze]

The BOM showed this low stalling in the Atlantic and getting pushed back a few days ago. Now that would be a feather in its cap if it came to fruition.

 

Feathers, caps.......sure I've heard this before

[johnholmes]

During the very cold weather in March in over did max temps for many parts of the south east.I have found that the BBC normally shows min temps for city's more rural areas are oftenseveral degrees warmer.

I don't follow CC, when you say more rural areas are warmer?BBC usually do show town/city temperatures but then suggest rural, as one might expect, will be lower, even sometimes showing these values?

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is my evening report on the 12z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday June 2nd 2013.All models continue to show much the same pattern as this morning with High pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK for the week to come. As the High moves from the SW of the UK to a position North of the UK later in the week the pressure pattern becomes very slack over the UK. There will be plenty of dry, warm and settled conditions with variable cloud cover by day with the occasional shower thrown in to keep life interesting. These may be slightly more prevalent in the North midweek and the far South by the weekend but overall many more places will stay dry and warm than see any showers.GFS then has a trend to gradually see pressure fall next weekend with showers building from the South to more areas. Reinforcements are also fed to the UK from the Atlantic for a time with the risk of showers or occasional rain quite high for a time before the weather settles down again under High pressure late in the run with more dry and sunny weather likely then for most.The GFS Ensembles show steadily warming uppers over the coming days with some very warm afternoons possible later this week. Thereafter, uppers are well agreed upon to fall back to average levels with the incidence of rain at times increasing in Central and Southern areas from later this week.The Jet Stream shows a slack and confused flow around the UK for the week to come before a more definitive flow develops worryingly to the South of the UK at the start of week 2.UKMO tonight shows a ridge of High pressure over the UK building across the UK from the Azores with fine, warm and settled conditions re-establishing itself across the British Isles away from the far NW where cloud and light rain is possible over the weekend.GEM shows a similar second injection of High pressure late in the week and next weekend with fine and warm weather likely for most eradicating the showers from the few areas that receive them earlier in the week. Towards the end of the run the Atlantic rain bearing depressions are getting dangerously close to the UK by the end of it's output.NAVGEM tonight follows a similar trend though it holds any impression from the Atlantic off until after the term of the run.ECM shows fine weather hanging on over much of the UK too with High pressure loosely holding grip of the weather over the UK. There would be warm sunny spells for all with the chance of the odd heavy afternoon shower here and there. Towards the end of it's run synoptics remain very messy over and around the UK with the trend bordering on more unsettled weather gradually becoming possible from slow moving upper troughs caught up in the slack conditions over the UK or from a more direct push from an Atlantic depression.In Summary there remains still a lot of uncertainty following the cross model certainty of this week. After a largely dry and increasingly warm and summery feeling week the cracks around the edge of our fine weather spell begin to occur from the weekend. Although the core of the weather will remain balanced towards fine, dry and warm conditions continuing the chances of showers increases slowly as pressure becomes very slack over the UK. These weather synoptics are notoriously difficult for both the computer models and forecasters to anticipate what will develop beyond such charts being shown so with that in mind I feel it is an open forum as to whether we keep this pleasant early summer spell or we return to something slightly more unsettled beyond the end of this coming week and weekend.

[Carlrg]

Feathers, caps.......sure I've heard this before

You can thank your lucky stars I don't use idiomatic phrases very often. I've got my beady eyes on you and  you'd better be on your best behaviour.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Carlrg

[Frosty.]

A much more settled Ecm 12z tonight, high pressure more in control for considerably longer and nothing like as bad as the 00z which had a vigorous depression kicking the door down, a much more benign ecm tonight, and also a pleasant looking ukmo 12z with a strong ridge of high pressure throughout next weekend which looks promising for the following week, it's good to see the sting being taken out of the atlantic after that unseasonally deep low which the ecm showed earlier, it doesn't mean it won't rear it's ugly head again but it's gone for now at least, actually it's still there but less potent and further west.... In the meantime, a very settled and pleasantly warm week ahead for most of the uk but cloudier across the north for the next few days, most of the south should have long sunny spells and become quite warm through the week, the risk of a few showers is still there but most areas should be fine and warm.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Frosty039

[NeilN]

Encouraging....absolutely encouraging

[Frosty.]

Encouraging....absolutely encouraging

it's very encouraging I agree, hopefully that spoiler low out west will go on holiday somewhere else and leave the uk to bask in high pressure for a change!

[NeilN]

it's very encouraging I agree, hopefully that spoiler low out west will go on holiday somewhere else and leave the uk to bask in high pressure for a change!

 

Give it to Greenland or burn away!

[J10]

it's very encouraging I agree, hopefully that spoiler low out west will go on holiday somewhere else and leave the uk to bask in high pressure for a change!

 

If we all chip in a pound we could arrange for it to go to Spain for the week.

 

Encouraging signs for summery weather trying to stay on a bit longer, although as Gibby says a lot of uncertainty remains.

[Frosty.]

If we all chip in a pound we could arrange for it to go to Spain for the week.

 

Encouraging signs for summery weather trying to stay on a bit longer, although as Gibby says a lot of uncertainty remains.

I think there were encouraging signs this morning from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean which had that atlantic low further away to the northwest, it never actually reached the uk so hopefully this will prolong our generally warm and settled spell for much longer.

[snowking]

Tonight's ECM Op actually fits in quite well with earlier upper level height anomaly guidance.The core of the trough always in the Atlantic, but with time, influencing the UK, particularly the north and west.Becoming more changeable as we progress through next weekend then and into the following week with an increased risk of showers and rainfall, but far from a washout with sunny periods inbetween. Temperatures around average, cooler towards the north and west maybe.All that after a sunny and increasingly warm week ahead of course.

^^ what AWD said

 

ECM op follows the ensemble mean from this morning, with low pressure being anchored just to the North West of the UK.

 

To answer Backtrack's query from earlier - we could end up with a NW/SE split yes, though it is likely to turn more generally unsettled for the UK as a whole (versus what we will see this week), the best chance of staying dry being further East, though even here I would expect some shower formation given the time of year and the type of flow suggested in current medium range NWP.

 

Not a washout by any means, more just a general sunshine and showers type setup - thats the kind of base state I think we are looking at for the summer as a whole, though the expectation is for the centre of the toughing to migrate Eastwards over time

 

SK

[Frosty.]

^^ what AWD said

 

ECM op follows the ensemble mean from this morning, with low pressure being anchored just to the North West of the UK.

 

To answer Backtrack's query from earlier - we could end up with a NW/SE split yes, though it is likely to turn more generally unsettled for the UK as a whole (versus what we will see this week), the best chance of staying dry being further East, though even here I would expect some shower formation given the time of year and the type of flow suggested in current medium range NWP.

 

Not a washout by any means, more just a general sunshine and showers type setup - thats the kind of base state I think we are looking at for the summer as a whole, though the expectation is for the centre of the toughing to migrate Eastwards over time

 

SK

I agree SK, I think we are likely to encounter some kind of breakdown by the following week but it may only have partial and temporary success as the gfs 12z op run showed before another surge of high pressure from the azores heads our way.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z  at day 10 looks like its following the trend set by the majority of GEFS ensembles in recent days to hold low pressure just to the west of the UK with a ridge building infront of it. However some GEFS ensemble members have low pressure landing more on top of us before retreating back out into the Atlantic allowing high pressure to build from the south. So while an unsettled spell may occur soon i am confident that we will have a favourable tilt of the jet stream meaning low pressure will push northwards with high pressure over northern Europe halting its progress eastwards. This is what the ECM 12z seems to show tonight.

 

Nice and settled from the UKMO with the haar and see fret risk diminishing.

 

This mornings ECM mean shows high pressure remaining strong over the UK with the low in the Atlantic making very slow progress eastwards.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z meam may have edged low pressure a bit closer at day 10 but it still is making very slow progress towards the UK indicative of the high pressure blocking its progress eastwards.

 

[Carlrg]

ECM 12z meam may have edged low pressure a bit closer at day 10 but it still is making very slow progress towards the UK indicative of the high pressure blocking its progress eastwards.

 

That low doesn't look as deep either. Gradually it's losing its energy.  Those quids we are all chipping in are working a treat.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Carlrg

[J10]

Looking at the charts tonight, it appears that any trough (ECM) is further north than this time last year, does that seem to agree with long term thinking Snowking.

[Geordiesnow]

One encouraging thing about the ECM is that it quickly lowers heights across Greenland on this run, got to hope this can be some kind of trend as the models in particular the GFS today has made more of the Greenland high than previous runs.

 

In general, it seems fairly high pressure will be near by with fairly light winds but the orientations of these slack flows could make a huge difference how much low cloud comes into play during the week. 

 

But all in all, a fairly settled week to come, with the small risk of some thundery showers breaking out. Potential for turning slightly more warmer at the latter part of the week perhaps. 

[summer blizzard]

Interesting output tonight...

 

1) At day 7 all models show pressure lowering and both the GFS and JMA have low pressure from the west breaching the UK (ECWMF holds it at bay however all 3 would probably see showers break out ahead) 

 

 

2) After soaking us the GFS splits the trough from the Jet Stream which veers north again and we see the Azores High build from the west - A persistent trend for several days now

 

 

Summary - At this stage i don't see a breakdown in the temperature regime before the 20th at least however we will have to see if the ECWMF supports the Azores ridge as it comes into day 10 soon. We may however see a short unsettled period in around a week. 

 

Also worth noting that if we do get the unsettled spell anybody going below average will take a CET hit as minima currently holding it down.