Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13


Recommended Posts

Latest Glastonbury forecast now out, and this update contains a lot of detailed analysis and charts from GFS 06Hz and 12Hz runs, ECM 00 and 12Hz runs, GEFS 06Hz and 12Hz runs.

 

Given the unsettled nature of the next 120 hours, it is not a positive update.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4626-photo-glastonbury-forecast-11-17th-june/

A little bit more positive given today's runs however GFS 12Hz was a bit disappointing.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4628-glastonbury-forecast-12-18th-june/

 

NOAA Upper Charts continue the theme from yesterday.

 

post-213-0-57403000-1371584503_thumb.gif

 

post-213-0-22553200-1371584501_thumb.gif

Edited by Jackone
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Urgh charts like this frustrate me

Posted Image

 

The Azores high is primed and ready to build into the UK, and hey presto, the Scandi trough decides to play a cock block manoeuvre.

So most of the UK dry and fine, East Anglia probably wet and cold Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Charts like these would be gunning for one of the coldest Junes on record down here.

I'd certainly be wary of any output that suggests the Azores high moving in till nearer the time, its been the spring and summer so far of the limpet Euro troughing.

I'll be happy to see any signs of pressure building to the east and ne gone as this has been a real pain especially down here, as we've seen during the winter it rarely gets far enough west to deliver , and now it just helps keep Euro troughing over western Europe.

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean there is at least some support for the Azores high moving ne but I'd be wanting to see that hit the 144hrs timeframe.

I sincerely hope the Azores high does pay a visit as its been a poor summer down here so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Its the 850 mb chart you want to view not the 500mb chart.! Certainly not convinced of anything in that far range, and if those charts are correct most of mainland Britain would have below average temps...

 

But at least it would be dry from Tuesday onwards which enhances the feeling of pleasantness. But a high to the west, low to the east setup is never going to give high temperatures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

But at least it would be dry from Tuesday onwards which enhances the feeling of pleasantness. But a high to the west, low to the east setup is never going to give high temperatures.

Not sure it would be dry from that chart either...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Gem 12z is full of promise at T+144 hours, it looks synoptically much better than the ukmo 12z and is more on a par with the Ecm 12z, there would be a warm and settled spell developing through next week with the jet further north, all parts of the uk would benefit.

post-4783-0-91722800-1371584248_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Tonight's Gem 12z is full of promise at T+144 hours, it looks synoptically much better than the ukmo 12z and is more on a par with the Ecm 12z, there would be a warm and settled spell developing through next week with the jet further north, all parts of the uk would benefit.

 

And from 144h on Meteociel high pressure continues to build strongly before cooler but still dry conditions edge down from the north. So potentially a warm and settled period may be just a week away but thats a long time in weather terms unfortunately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Not been a bad start to summer,in these regions.24 degrees today which is good for Yorkshire.

ECM has as much chance as any other output of coming off.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013061812/ECH1-240.GIF?18-0

 

From the media,i would say the south has been struggling so far?

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

New thread coming soon. Please finish up here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Have to say though that it has all the signs of being flattened off.(could not edit my post..sorry)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

it looks warm and fine to me, decent uppers.

you will tomorrow, you should get 24-25c tomorrow but with thundery showers tonight and then again tomorrow night and thursday.

Sorry Frosty, but i cant see "decent uppers" on the ECM 168hrs chart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Not been a bad start to summer,in these regions.24 degrees today which is good for Yorkshire.

ECM has as much chance as any other output of coming off.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013061812/ECH1-240.GIF?18-0

 

From the media,i would say the south has been struggling so far?

Yes from what I've seen northern areas aswell as Ireland have done pretty well which is a big change from last year. All your rain has ended up down here!

The weather has been all over the place here, May was dismal since then a few hot days then a two day monsoon on and off, from 31c on Sunday to a miserable 14c today with 36hrs of continuous rain.

I think what we'd all like to see is a western based negative NAO, nice deep low parked in the Atlantic and nice southerlies flooding north ahead of it. If people like the heat then that's a surefire way to get it!

Edited by nick sussex
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

But at least it would be dry from Tuesday onwards which enhances the feeling of pleasantness. But a high to the west, low to the east setup is never going to give high temperatures.

 

The ECM shows the high extending east though as the run goes on and this allows the upper air temperatures to rise, later on in the run we have 10C 850 temps over much of the country which would see many areas reaching the mid 20s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

wow 22c, i suppose we should be grateful for those temps nowadays, i hope the GFS is right as that is saying 26c 27c but i know it overcooks temps it has fooled us into thinking we were going to have a mini heatwave

Think the downgrade may be due to the potential for some heavy thundery rain during the morning resulting in not so high temperatures. Any areas that see the sun without t-storms, will see the highest temp. I attached UKMO precip model for tomorrow morning at 10am, shows the rain in south east.

post-16336-0-40193500-1371587476_thumb.p

Edited by bradythemole
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...