ireland Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[ronan]

So folks the first storm of the season is on its way for Sunday! Plenty of rain and wind forecast! Hopefully it's the first of many! Just watched Mr B A S T A R D I S latest video forecast and he hinted at a brutal winter for Northern Europe with plenty of Northern Blocking and a negative NAO! I have a good feeling about this winter!! Not just because of his early thoughts but just a gut feeling. Lol. Can't wait for this place to liven up!!

 

 

Edited September 12, 2013 by ronan

[The watcher]

Last winter wasn't bad at all for snow and cold, started off slow but picked up and March was crazy for snowfall and depth in local areas.

[BornFromTheVoid]

This place has gone very quite. Calm before the winter storm!?

 

Not great weather today, very mild and wet. Was out for a walk and was either sweating from having the hood up or getting wet from the drizzly rain. The wind sounds great though!

[ronan]

How's it going Void? It is extremely quiet in here! Won't be long till things liven up. Last year my first frost was the 25th September then the first signs of winter started to appear! Signs are already there and showing plenty of northern blocking for the upcoming winter but it's early days yet!

[BornFromTheVoid]

How's it going Void? It is extremely quiet in here! Won't be long till things liven up. Last year my first frost was the 25th September then the first signs of winter started to appear! Signs are already there and showing plenty of northern blocking for the upcoming winter but it's early days yet!

 

Well Ronan. Doesn't feel like frost is a possibility at the moment, 22.2C with 78% RH.  That's a humidex value of 28C! Ridiculous for the end of September.

[sundog]

certainly was a very summer like feel to the weather this wk end. got a max of 21.7c yesterday and a max of 20.7 today. don't mind this weather at this time of year for a day or two but only once we return to more autumnal weather quickly. however it looks like above average temps will last for a bit although not quite as high after tomorrow.

[SMU]

Hello -

 

I will be visiting the fair aisle on THurs this week for 1 day picking up a car from county Londonderry then driving to Rosslare & back on the ferry!

 

hope to have some nice driving weather--

 

S

[ronan]

Steve that's a serious drive!! Lol. 5.5 hours from Derry to Rosslare depending on traffic. At least you will see plenty of our beautiful country.

[mountain shadow]

Any chance we will see the orange orb soon? Starting to get Vitamin D deficiency..

[ronan]

Interesting read! Taken from from Facebook. Wish this place would liven up a wee bit! This time last year we were in full flow! Lol!

Irl / N. Irl

The current set up is very similar to the set up this time of year back in 2009, ahead of the big winter freeze of 2009/2010. It might be worth taking note of this as the current patterns are being caused by a negative AO & NAO, – blocking on the continent causing low pressure systems which usually travel east to west, are being pushed further south and stalling to the SW, feeding up these mild southerly winds, similar to 2009. This setup often proceeds a period of prolonged and cold easterly flows in winter, very fine details can switch the southerlies to cold southerlies and eventually, bitter easterlies.

This is the pattern (negative AO & NAO) we like to see in Winter if we like to see cold pushing off the continent, coming west and bringing the risks of snow to the UK & Irl. With the current pattern setup, if this weekend had been in the high winter months, it would have been quiet a snowy affair for most areas as the mild southerlies came up against cold southeasterly’s causing whats known as a battleground scenario.

Back in 2010, when the big freeze hit in November, continued for December and into 2011, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) had been running negative for almost, if not a full year and the NAO had already smashed the previous record of 9 months negative NAO by two months at least, before the freeze hit in November. That freeze had been predicted by myself as early as late Spring and even strongly suggested in the early months of the year.

This year, the AO was running neutral, while the NAO was been running very much on the positive side for much of the year up to now but, both have flipped to moderately negative for September. Now we have to ask ourselves are we going to see a continuation of the negative oscillations into the Winter months ahead ? Early cooling to the east over (Russia etc.) can be another signal to a cold winter ahead and it seems that this is happening this year. When early cooling happens in Siberia, the migrating swans which usually arrive to the UK around mid-November often arrive in October and many people regard this another significant sign of a cold winter ahead for the Northern Hemisphere so keep an eye out for the arrival of the swans in October !

Not jumping to conclusions here yet folk’s, but any of you that have been following my winter forecasts during recent year will know that I take all points into consideration during the year and eventually accumulate them to make my Winter forecast, around the end of November/start December. For now while there are some weaker signals of a mild Winter season ahead, I think there is a much larger chance of a colder than average Winter on the way. But how cold ?

Haha, we’ll have to wait another while for that one folks, so stay tuned to the Reality Weather Network !!

—Ray

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry to put a downer on that, but I'm not sure why the comparison with 2009 is made.

 

2009 had a strong -ve NAO through the summer, switched strongly +ve in September, and then back to -ve in October. This year has been +ve all summer, and will probably be close to neutral in September. Very, very different years.

 

2009 Summer NAO -1.2

2013 Summer NAO +0.7

 

The AO does look like being slightly -ve for September this year, but in 2009 was moderately +ve!

 

Anyway, it's a bit early to say much about winter currently, it seems things are somewhat in the balance, with no strong signal either way, yet!

[jello]

Tornado in Galway this evening, Structural damage to building and damage to trees, power supplies also affected. 

 

Video https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=661032670581800&set=vb.100000252195264&type=2&theater

 

[Cloud]

Interesting tornado report.  Looking like a low CAPE supercell event.

[sundog]

This dull mild humid weather is really starting to get on my wick now. Havent seen a single digit temp since 19th of sept.  Autumn? Last nights low 15.2c bloody ridiculous.

Would love a nice fresh northwesterly or something to make it feel more autumnal.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

DDDDDDDDDDDuuuuuuuuuddddddddddddddeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssss

What is the craic how r we all doing, all geared up winter are we.

I have to be honest I have loved this summer for the heat and sunshine, got a feeling it could be a good december for the white stuff, all the natural signs are there:

Abundance of berries

Swallows gone before end of September

Yetis booking my shed for their holidays....

Anyway hope we all get what we want

[ronan]

Well Pomeroy what's the craic my friend? Have you got the Prozac at the ready? Lol! Have to say that I've noticed the amount of berries to! This was a theory my wee granny always had! Looking forward to the coming months now and good to see a few of you coming out of hibernation!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

All good Ronan bud, I'll say a few of the regulars will show they face soon....

Hope all is well with u

[ronan]

This time last year the forum was in full swing but it was allot colder last September/October. To be honest I would rather have a mildish Autumn and save the proper cold for the end of November on! We shall see!

[BIG LAD]

good to see the winter heads coming out of hibernation!!! looking forward to the highs and lows of another winter hunting for cold and snow. not much cold so far this autumn but I think temps will have dropped a far bit by next Thursday so hope its the start of something good.

[stormforce 10]

at long last something more seasonal for later in the week. i thought Id never get on here posting.

 

hope everyone enjoyed this marvelous summer.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I have to say this warm spell has been great for my Garden, and my bills!!

I wonder who will report the first airforst in Ireland??

[sundog]

Good to see people coming back for another autumn/winter season

 

At last this very mild humid muck is on its way out. Got up to 19.4c here today,doubt i will see a temp like that again now until later in the spring.

Last night the temp only dropped to 15.5c here,probably one of if not the warmest mins ive ever recorded for this time of the year.

Edited October 7, 2013 by sundog

[bobbarley]

Has the hunt for cold begun already??

[ronan]

This is a great read and I really hope he is right!!!

Irl / UK

Please note, this is a discussion not a forecast !

Over the last few weeks, many of you will have seen me going on and on about continuous, mild southerlies often being a significant sign of disruption to the normal Atlantic patterns, and stating that they are often an early warning sign of prolonged periods of continental, based influences on our weather patterns, eg. easterly airflow’s.

Also, during the past few weeks we have often seen south-easterlies that would have been capable of delivering snow to much of the UK and Ireland if it had been Winter months. These are trends which I watch closely during the year and as we close in on Winter, they will play one of the major roles in my Winter seasonal forecast.

Back to where I mentioned about the mild southerlies, well once again, it proves itself. The weather models are in large agreement now that a strong easterly set up is about to take hold and we may see easterly winds become quite frequent or sustained over the next few weeks. Of course, the continent is still very warm, so we will not be seeing freezing weather just yet but certainly, if this were the end of November on-wards and you like cold and snowy weather, then you would have plenty of reason to be getting very excited.

Next I will add the fact that during the ’90′s and early years after the turn of the century, right up to December 2008, it was very rare to see easterly setups, and they never last much more than 4 – 5 days. But since then, during Winter 2009/10 and 10/11 and at times in other seasons in recent years, including the back end of last Winter when the coldest March on record hit many areas in the UK and Ireland, these easterly influenced setups are becoming more prolonged and more frequent. It was these set ups that brought the huge freezes in recent years, freezes that we were told by the so called ‘Warming Alarmist’ we would never see again.

Getting to the point, what I’m saying here is that if the weather models are correct and what they are putting out now, follows through, then we can be sure that the patterns that brought the recent severe Winter freezes as still very much alive. But could we see them this Winter ?

Well as anyone who has been following my forecasts of recent will know, this is the time of year when things will bump back and forward quite a bit as Winter attempts to push out Summer. Things will settle a little in a few weeks and we will see what settles where, and then we can start trying to paint a serious picture of the Winter season ahead.

I am not trying to cause alarm yet and I may well be wrong, but with the recent synoptic setups and the expected patterns in the next few weeks, I’m certainly seeing a huge chance of a very cold or severe Winter season ahead, the chances of a very cold one, hammering the odds of a very mild one.

I will add that the latest model runs are throwing out tremendous stuff indeed, especially for the snow fans. Long fetched, easterly airflow’s with low pressure systems pushing north from France right into it. As I mentioned earlier, the continent is still warm, but if this were later in the year, these lows would deliver very large amounts of snow to most areas. In fact, the setup is the number one setup, the classic that brings the famous snow storms from the E/SE.

Winter 2013/14 is still quite some time away so we will not be jumping to any conclusions yet but certainly, with so many anticipating another Winter like ’47 or ’63 is well overdue, the fact that cold winters often come in clusters, diminishing solar activity and the recent, current and expected setups along with other things, I would advise y’all too keep an open mind !!

I intended to include a few images and charts to help you all understand what I’m talking about but sorry, as I have got caught for time.

I’ll also mention that the hurricane season is far from over and we are still at some risk of one, or the nasty leftovers of one pushing our way. In fact, the midday GFS run fires one directly at us from the south on the 18th. Much too far out to be taking much notice of the track of a storm. But imagine this following chart that shows it was in Winter ?

Of course we don’t get hurricanes in the winter months but certainly, we get storms that can be quite as strong. The following chart is the output from that GFS midday run, if that were Winter we would be seeing hurricane force, east winds with killer blizzards and real feel temp’s of between minus 20 and minus 30 at ground level. Will have more news on the trends soon. Never underestimate the Irish weather Folks and the same goes for you guys in the UK !

Official Winter forecast will be out in early December

Ray

[ronan]

At last something a bit more Autumnal! Feeling nice and fresh out today!