ARCUS September Sea Ice Extent Poll

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi folks.

It's time for the first ARCUS sea ice extent prediction poll of the summer. ARCUS basically gather the prediction for the mean September Arctic sea ice extent from different scientists, organisations and public contributions, and make short reports based on them. More information can be found here http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

 

The poll is for the MEAN September sea ice extent, which is always slightly higher than the daily minimum. Below is a graph of the September mean since 1979

The values from the last 10 years are

2003: 6.15 millionkm2

2004: 6.05 millionkm2

2005: 5.57 millionkm2

2006: 5.92 millionkm2

2007: 4.3 millionkm2

2008: 4.73 millionkm2

2009: 5.39 millionkm2

2010: 4.93 millionkm2

2011: 4.63 millionkm2

2012: 3.61 millionkm2

 

Monthly data is here ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_area.txt

 

The current extent is at about 12.25 millionkm2. This is 11th lowest on record and almost the same as last year.

The latest volume estimate from the PIOMAS model has us on lowest on record (end of April).

 

 

The results of the prediction polls will be compared to the NSIDC data

 

The results of this poll will be submitted on the evening of JUNE 7th, so any votes made after that time will not count.

 

Edited June 4, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[VillagePlank]

I picked the median of the 2002-2012 on the 12th September from IJIS. Completely arbitrary (sort of)

Edited June 4, 2013 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

I picked the median of the 2002-2012 on the 12th September from IJIS. Completely arbitrary (sort of)

 

This is based on the NSIDC data, rather than IJIS. I should probably make that clear in the opening post.

 

I'm going with 3.8 for the time being, slightly above last years record low. This is mainly due to the Winter and Spring being cooler than recent years, despite the poor looking volume. If PIOMAS updates and is still lowest on record before I send off the results, I may lower my guess a little bit.

[pottyprof]

I've actually gone for 3.8 too without reading the thread so I don't think we're too far away with our general thinking.  It would be good to see a larger extent but I don't think it's going to be over 4 for a good few years if there is sign of any real recovery because even if the summers are below average regarding temperatures, there is a lot of ground to cover due to sea temperatures.  Never say never though......

[songster]

Going for 4 million as I think there will be a bit of a bounce back from last year, but 2007 (the previous floor) is likely the ceiling from here on in.

[Gray-Wolf]

OK , I think it is expected of me but should conditions be conducive ( nothing special , just average) then I'm thinking around 3.2 million?

 

Should things edge toward a 'perfect storm'....not 07' type but high melt plus a couple of GAC12 type events through late July/Aug then sub 2 million is not off the cardfs ( for me?)

 

As things stand I cannot see any synoptics putting us over 07's record min.....  some folk might like to ponder why a 'perfect storm year' should be trumped by a bog standard Year?

[Methuselah]

I'm guessing at 3.6...

[DAVID SNOW]

4.7.

[gagerg]

The recent low pressure along with the state of the Arctic Ice now has led me to the pessimistic vote of  2,900,000km2

[sundog]

I will go for 4,400,000km2

[joggs]

I'll for a optimistic 3.9 million

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ye have until Friday evening to get the votes in. 

Cut off time on Friday will be about 10pm

Edited June 5, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last day to vote!

[Don]

What the hell, I've gone for 4.0 million!

[Interitus]

Went for 4 million also, assuming a slight stabilisation or *cough* recovery. The largest annual increase would leave it at 5.36 but the largest percentage increase would only be 4.64. The average of increases is 8.16% which would be 3.9 million so 4 million or 10% seems a fair guess given recent volume estimates. Can't see it being much higher than this though and could easily approach last year's low given suitable conditions.

Edited June 7, 2013 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cheers to those that have voted. Just a short while left now...

[Gray-Wolf]

Good spread of ideas ( none too 'extreme'?) from those interested enough to vote.

 

A big vote of thanks ( from us all I'm sure? ) for BFTV for putting in the effort (again!) and bringing us the opportunity to stake our credibility on how low the ice will fall.

 

Thanks BFTV, the world needs the 'doozers' .....and not just us Fraggles!

Edited June 7, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

The netweather prediction has been sent off now. Rounded to the nearest 100,000, 4,200,000km2 was the collective mean prediction.

 

Thanks to all that voted

[stewfox]

oops just missed it 4.9m

[Gray-Wolf]

Well seeing as past example shows that the 'previous' record years ice low has never been subsequently been beaten once a new low was made then we ,at least, lower than 07'?

 

I can't help believing, all that said, that we are watching a slow dwindle away of the ice and that we will hit last years low if not lower?

 

Once June , and it's central basin storms, are over we'll have a better idea of how things will end up.

 

One thing is certain in my mind though and that is the basin has changed from the way it was, and behaved, 30yrs ago. To me I see the ice below a certain 'critical' point where recovery (back to 1950's levels) is a very difficult thing to imagine without catastrophic global events leading to many 'years without summer' so allowing the strength of recovery needed to survive the coming 'perfect storm' years (and subsequent ones) and an albedo impact to offset our current warming?

 

EDIT: I've just read that Watts and Co. will not be entering their poll due to the apparent fact that 'Trolls' have been posting for a 6 million plus min???? does he really think that AGW adherents;

 

A/ want to engage there any more (apart from the kudos of a ban for posting 'troubling' data)

 

B/ Would not vote for a lower than reasonable vote?

 

I did follow his first poll and it would appear that his own folk were crazed enough to believe in such figures as 'possibilities'??? It seems far better sense to leave them alone to their own devices and let their own views do the speaking as to how in touch with reality they are???

 

I visit 'solar24' and they are of a very similar cut over their but have the brass balls to just 'carry on as if nothing happened' when their whacked out predictions are shown up against the reality (Oh! I do like that week over their ....such fun!)

Edited June 8, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

Well seeing as past example shows that the 'previous' record years ice low has never been subsequently been beaten once a new low was made then we ,at least, lower than 07'?

 

I can't help believing, all that said, that we are watching a slow dwindle away of the ice and that we will hit last years low if not lower?

 

Once June , and it's central basin storms, are over we'll have a better idea of how things will end up.

 

One thing is certain in my mind though and that is the basin has changed from the way it was, and behaved, 30yrs ago. To me I see the ice below a certain 'critical' point where recovery (back to 1950's levels) is a very difficult thing to imagine without catastrophic global events leading to many 'years without summer' so allowing the strength of recovery needed to survive the coming 'perfect storm' years (and subsequent ones) and an albedo impact to offset our current warming?

 

EDIT: I've just read that Watts and Co. will not be entering their poll due to the apparent fact that 'Trolls' have been posting for a 6 million plus min???? does he really think that AGW adherents;

 

A/ want to engage there any more (apart from the kudos of a ban for posting 'troubling' data)

 

B/ Would not vote for a lower than reasonable vote?

 

I did follow his first poll and it would appear that his own folk were crazed enough to believe in such figures as 'possibilities'??? It seems far better sense to leave them alone to their own devices and let their own views do the speaking as to how in touch with reality they are???

 

I visit 'solar24' and they are of a very similar cut over their but have the brass balls to just 'carry on as if nothing happened' when their whacked out predictions are shown up against the reality (Oh! I do like that week over their ....such fun!)

 

I think your 3.2m or 2m with storm are looking a tad optimistic ? (forecast 7 weeks ago)

 

What went wrong ?

 

I still think my 4.9m based on the state of the artic 7 weeks ago might itself be too pessimistic.

Edited August 25, 2013 by stewfox

[DAVID SNOW]

Can the results of the poll be released yet?

Edited October 1, 2013 by DAVID SNOW

[BornFromTheVoid]

Can the results of the poll be released yet?

 

The poll was from back in June, but I stopped doing them afterward.

 

The results can be seen here http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june

[DAVID SNOW]

The poll was from back in June, but I stopped doing them afterward.

 

The results can be seen here http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june

Oh ok, I was just wondering if any member guessed near to the actual  mean September sea ice extent from the poll back in june.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Oh ok, I was just wondering if any member guessed near to the actual  mean September sea ice extent from the poll back in june.

 

The voting is set to private, as people seemed to get bothered when I set the polls to open before, so we could see who voted for what.

I guess in this instance, we'll have to trust whoever claims they voted for 5.3 or 5.1 million, as they'll probably be quite close. My own calculations show it to be 5.2 million km2, but I know the NSIDC use a different method, so my own may be a little off.

Edited October 1, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid