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Chase Day 28 - Slight risk TX, NM, OK, KS


nsrobins

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    A bit of south Caprock Magic might be the play today as an upslope regime prevails ahead of the slowly advancing cold front.

    Shear and instability don't look very well positioned but my preference would be the cusp of the DL bulge where inhibition erodes enough to release the 1800+ CAPE later on. Also sharply backing surface winds riding into the extended trough feature here.
    So down to the I80 for me around Abilene, TX although this might be a bit too far SW depending on recovery and DL incursion.

     

    Edit: A bit of time to kill while my prawn noodles mature takes me into the HRRR (09Z run) and I see it wants to develop some sturdy looking cells a bit further east around Albany/Breckenridge by 21Z. I'm going to call it's bluff because I don't think the DL will get far enough east and I'll stick with Abilene but Stamford on the I277 would give you options either way.
     

    Key:

    Bold type - primary target

    Italic bold - secondary should the primary fail which is likely

    underline - tertiary target in the almost certain eventuality that the secondary target is as wrong as the primary 

     

    PS: CAP should not be as much of a problem as last night

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

    Paul has looked at a possible target area for todays chase and we may be heading west of Lubbock. Will confirm that is a short while once we have had another look.

     

    Tom

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Interesting. I'm actually wondering if I might be missing another potential target which the 12Z HRRR has highlighted - namely the OK/TX line around Hollis to Magnum. Certainly the instability is greater here and it's on the north side of the low in easterly flow but I'm not sure what HRRR is using to trigger initiation. The area is much more likely to be capped until 22Z plus.Go with Lubbock (too far west IMO)/Abilene or stay very local and risk the better structure and shear but stronger cap.

     

    TBH I can't see where the SPC are getting the tornado risk from. Based on model blend of SRH and EHI I'd be putting the higher risk in far SW OK across to AMA this evening, but I'm only an amateur! I can understand the vectors (E at surface and W at 500mb) but the flow is so weak it's not transposing into the SRH.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

    Going to grab a subway and then have another look at models. A decision will then be made. Nipping to a local park to sit and eat.

     

    Live stream should be on.

     

    Tom

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Tbh Neil I think you are putting way too much faith in the HRRR, Which has been absolutely appalling this year, it has hit 1 of the 28 days we have been chasing and even before this during April it was all out to sea with regards where it was putting mesoscale features.

     

    I am also sceptical of the 5% Tornado Risk but can see something rolling out of New Mexico into West Texas as winds back to the east around 00z to 01z timeframe.

     

    I can see the threat for a small window in SW Oklahoma and North of the Red river and would not be surprised to see a 5% box put in on the 20z timeframe, but also with 1 eye on tomorrows chase will almost certainly head west as the next few days look like the same general area.

     

    But still awaiting more model data before a final decision is made.

     

    Might be totally wrong again on this one, but $hit happens as they say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    cool Tom. Any chance you get to let us know the synoptic situation then great - to me it looks like your heading for a dryline/cold front+ofb intersection there - its a messy looking surface chart where I cant quite work out whats going on!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    that is a brute of a storm up in northern NM - looks to be too high based for a tn threat, but there's no live feeds around there at present - I'd imagine the nw team are considering going up to meet this one -

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    lol looks like its just me on here, typing away to the ether.. GPS has updated and team are on the way to intercept that cell. Currently about 1480 mlcape, effective shear of 48, esrh of 180-200, and lcl's at about 1200m upwards. looks pretty good!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

    Sorry had issues but think sorted now streaming on and in NM waiting for a cell to arrive near Login  severe warned

    north of Tumucari and a BLOODY LONG TRAIN HAS TURNED UP TOO

    You have not missed much yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

    cell is about 10 miles away  very little lightning though atm at least

    there is wall cloud at 10 oclock to our position

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    Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    hehe .. I would have died in that heat - you'd have had to drop me off at that lake for a swim!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

    Another bust from HRRR Paul LOL.

    Will put this in the bank again - development in both of my targets failed to materialise, with upslope in the dryer air providing the best images.If I did this for a living I'd be on jobseekers allowance in no time. Mind you, at least I'd be able to study the ins and outs of why things develop and why at other times they don't.

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