Thunderstorm activity Thursday 13th June 2013

[VillagePlank]

This looks quite interesting, and, perhaps it needs a thread of it's own, for next Thursday. An absolutely epoch away in GFS terms, but we can watch the chances dissipate as the days go by,

 

Plume of warm moist air ridges up from France, with moderate CAPE associated,

 

 

With these things, it's often the boundary case that's the most interesting. Whilst the plume is really off to our East, the boundary is over the SE quadrant of the UK, and this is shown nicely by the precipitation chart,

 

 

As expected from these things, plenty of moisture available, especially when considering the 2m max temps,

 

 

Relatively cool mid-layer implies good lapse rates,

 

 

Unfortunately, it looks like a mid to high level affair,

 

 

Worth keeping an eye on, I reckon.

 

Happy hunting

 

Edited June 7, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Supacell]

I will be keeping an eye on this too Sparkicle, although as you say it is a long way off. My worry is the general tendency for things to move eastwards as we get closer on GFS charts but to balance that worry is the fact that this year it appears that the weather is having a tendency to have less eastwards progress.

 

It is about time we had a decent plume and this could (could) just provide that opportunity.

[claret047]

 

I will be keeping an eye on this too Sparkicle, although as you say it is a long way off. My worry is the general tendency for things to move eastwards as we get closer on GFS charts but to balance that worry is the fact that this year it appears that the weather is having a tendency to have less eastwards progress. It is about time we had a decent plume and this could (could) just provide that opportunity.

 From a purely selfish point of view I really do hope that it is not during the daytime on Thursday as it is my mother's funeral. What are the chances of it happening between 11.00 and 13.00 hours in Essex? I know it is a long way off but is my neck of the woods in the firing line?Kind RegardsDave

[Harry]

Well, I'm knackered at work at the moment and am tempted to ask for next Friday off anyway

 

Those charts have nudged me one more step towards asking for it!!

[Coast]

Well, I'm knackered at work at the moment and am tempted to ask for next Friday off anyway

 

Those charts have nudged me one more step towards asking for it!!

 

Wait 'till Wednesday Harry, or chuck a sicky! 

[dave48]

The GFS painting a nice picture there with the NMM, going for something even better, MLCAPE between 400-700 in a well sheared environment. Certainly the potential for a good light show.

 

At the moment, ECMWF not in agreement with a much flatter more zonal pattern. Met office also has a different idea. These set ups are complex and rarely well forecast even a day or two in advance.

 

Will certainly be watching the models over the weekend.

[Andy Bown]

These set ups are complex and rarely well forecast even a day or two in advance.

Or in the case of last night/today, poorly forecast a matter of hours in advance and even this morning when storms were happening!

[Supacell]

To my eyes the GFS 00z does not show much CAPE around during this coming week, maybe a bit towards the end of the week. There still looks to be a lot of rain though but no SBCAPE until Friday.

 

Question for those in the know, does the GFS storm risk charts only relate to SBCAPE and thus surface based storms. Reason I ask is that the GFS does not show good chances for anything before Friday but the charts also don't show storms across Cornwall this morning and they are currently having a thunderstorm? 

 

Or are this weeks storms now off for all?

Edited June 8, 2013 by Supacell

[Coast]

The main convective chat thread is back open again, please keep this one specifically to any potential for next Thursday only:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76597-upcoming-convective-storm-risk-discussion-wc-12th-may/

[dave48]

Latest GFS has binned the potential for next Thursday, following the ECMWF/UKMO in the flatter pattern. Currently has surface based potential for Friday.

[VillagePlank]

What GFS giveth, it can also take away, this is what the charts look like a week(ish) later,

 

 

A plume, nowhere to be seen,

 

 

Time to lock this thread, methinks

 

[Convective]

BBC Northwest England just showed lightning over us for tomorrow as the last of the rain clears away! Here's hoping!

[Supacell]

Next weeks plume is off on the GFS 06z apart from the far SE tip which gets grazed on Monday night, but I have a feeling it may be back on the 12z.

 

I was wrong GFS 12z is pathetic for storm opportunities.

[Adi F]

calm down people let it sort its act out, there is no point getting stressed so far out. lol 

[ZONE 51]

Just read through interesting posts, thought i'd post this radar has an interesting shape..

 

still keeping check on things through this eve for northern areas..

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

A rather broad upper trough covers much of the North Atlantic, while at the surface a complex of low pressure systems exist. One particular surface low will migrate eastwards across the north North Sea during Thursday, with sharp troughing in the lower-levels. Potential exists for some convection ahead of an eastward-moving wrap-around occlusion.

 

Discussion:

... N/NE ENGLAND, E MIDLANDS ...

Main period will be between 10z-16z over highlighted SLGT threat areas. Diurnal heating and PVA associated with a low-level trough will generate 500-800 J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing through the late morning and early-mid afternoon. Some 20-30kts DLS will enable cells to become organised for a time, with some lightning activity possible given ELTs down to -35C. However, it is worth noting that the fast advancement of the occlusion will cause all activity to decay/move offshore by 15z-16z.
Given predicted instability and cooling aloft, hail up to 1.0cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/248

[dave48]

Certainly the potential for a few lively thunderstorms tomorrow (Thursday), early afternoon for parts of the midlands and north east.

 

Edit: Surprised ESTOFEX haven't given the aforementioned regions a '15% probability' area.

Edited June 12, 2013 by dave48

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly the potential for a few lively thunderstorms tomorrow (Thursday), early afternoon for parts of the midlands and north east.

 

Edit: Surprised ESTOFEX haven't given the aforementioned regions a '15% probability' area.

 

Yeah, towards the east again! One day Cheshire might find itself in the middle of the storm risk zone!

[Convective]

Absolutely hammering down now! I'm in bed and can hear it roaring outside. Has been for the last 5 minutes now.

BBC forecasting "Some very lively thundershowers later in the day over eastern parts." It'll be interesting anyway. But again, typical, the eastern side of England

[Cheshire Freeze]

But again, typical, the eastern side of England

 

Yep, absolutely typical

 

EDIT: Latest video forecast highlights a zone from N Wales across to Lincolnshire for some really powerful deluges, large hail and locally damaging gusts of wind. We'll have to wait and see.

Edited June 12, 2013 by CreweCold

[nitro_deluxe]

Yep, absolutely typical

Seem to recall some decentish storms not far away last Springtime, April poss May 2012? Oswestry, Chester got caught out by them.Ho hum and all that. Next Wednesday is the day (honest..) at least it was yesterday.

[Keraunic]

You can bet yer boots it won't be this part of the Eastern Side. Nah, it'll be further up North. You watch, it'll be June 28th all over again.

[toggerob]

The sun should start to be rising above the horizon in 2 hours time, so with a 'IMBY' approach i'm interested to see just how early on these showers truly initiate along with what the Meto is expecting. All quiet here as of now but it sure feels like the kind of atmosphere outside where anything could kick off at any moment.

[Supacell]

After yesterday failed to materialise I feel there is a much better chance of some of us catching a thunderstorm today. Infact the next few days brings a number of opportunities on the recent models. However, just for today it looks to be a swathe across N England as an area of instability transfers eastwards, starting this morning in the NW of the Midlands and ending up across E England by mid-afternoon and exiting into the North Sea by tea-time. These develop in an environment of up to 80knts of DLS and so organisation is likely along with a narrow line of low ELT's promoting the risk of hail. Gusty winds also should be expected although from what I can see the main risk of high wind gusts are further south than where the storms are likely to occur.

 

My expectations would be a line of showers to develop across NW England and N Wales, be across the central portion of the risk area by around the middle of the day as a line of thunderstorms and then Lincolnshire/East and North Yorkshire look good early afternoon with the east coast seeing the last of the storms moving away around 3-4pm.  

 

As these storms move away another area of instability and showers will be developing across eastern parts of Ireland and these move across into NW Wales this evening, although these are unlikely to be as organised or as intense as anything that occurs during the earlier part of the day in the more eastern parts.

 

Edited June 13, 2013 by Supacell

[Biggin]

Was gonna post an image but I cant. all greyed out. Oh well.