Thunderstorm activity Thursday 13th June 2013

[Coast]

Morning storm fans!

 

Nothing from any of the dedicated storm sites so far today, is there anything brewing?

 

GFS simple overview has a brief and isolated slot midday in over Wales/Merseyside

 

 

Lightning Wizard GFS shows more detail with an area of MLCAPE in the Midlands:

 

 

 

Highlighted in the convergence/shear chart:

 

 

 

Plenty of SBCAPE in that area 

 

 

Lower level lapse rates are higher to the SW:

 

 

Possible helical activity in the Midlands midday?

 

 

A few gusty winds to the South:

 

 

I'll check NMM, but the chances of a rumble or two of thunder look possible through the middle of the country midday onwards.

[Coast]

NW Extra NMM has the area of potential activity more to the East and maybe about right:

 

 

 

 

The much argued about TT index will be worth checking to see it's accuracy and coverage:

 

 

 

 

[Cloudwatcher]

Nothing on the cards for us I fear. Much too far west.

Edited June 13, 2013 by Cloudwatcher

[The PIT]

Nothing will happen. Carol Kirkwood said the killer word Humdingers. So except isolated showers of light drizzle....

I've noticed the forecasts of gusts up to 50 mph for southern Britain have dropped of the forecast for today as well.

[Boro Snow]

looking good for my area fingers crossed 

[Darren Bown]

Things are already intensifying/building in NE England, Midlands, and that clump moving into Wales is getting heavier.

[Summer Sun]

Synopsis:

 

A rather broad upper trough covers much of the North Atlantic, while at the surface a complex of low pressure systems exist. One particular surface low will migrate eastwards across the north North Sea during Thursday, with sharp troughing in the lower-levels. Potential exists for some convection ahead of an eastward-moving wrap-around occlusion.

 

Discussion:

... N/NE ENGLAND, E MIDLANDS ...

Main period will be between 10z-18z over highlighted SLGT threat areas. Diurnal heating and PVA associated with a low-level trough will generate 500-800 J/kg CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing through the late morning and early-mid afternoon. Some 20-30kts DLS will enable cells to become organised for a time, with some lightning activity possible given ELTs down to -35C. However, it is worth noting that the fast advancement of the occlusion will cause all activity to decay/move offshore by 16z-18z.
Given predicted instability and cooling aloft, hail up to 1.0cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells. PWAT of 20-24mm may cause some local flooding from a combination of intense downpours, and several showers passing over the same areas.

** Updated at 06:46 to extend SLGT further south across the Midlands and East Anglia given recent NWP output. Showers/storms in the southern half of the SLGT will benefit from much stronger DLS, allowing organisation and longevity. Eastern parts of Ireland may also need an upgrade to a SLGT if conditions continue to look favourable during this afternoon **

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/248

[Eye to the sky]

Really heavy shower just passed through here,now it's returned to the steady drizzle that's been falling since around 9am.Could be a sign of things to come though.

[Darren Bown]

The NE looks quite lively at the moment.

 

EDIT: And NW Wales. Quite intense downpours.

Edited June 13, 2013 by Darren Bown

[Boro Snow]

The NE looks quite lively at the moment.

 

EDIT: And NW Wales. Quite intense downpours.

yeah your right a heavy shower just moving into darlington now and the wind has picked up

Edited June 13, 2013 by Boro Snow

[pad199207]

Heavy Shower here right now with quite big drops! Hoping for maybe some sparks today

[Cloudwatcher]

Sitting right in line for those heavy showers in NW Wales...shame those cells aren't electrifying! Was planning a photo trip to Frodsham Hill if so!

[P-M]

Something is brewing up here in the NE but whether it becomes electrified is anyone's business - have had a sharp downpour already this morning but no thunder and only very brief.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 2013-06-13 10:00:16

Valid: 13/06/2013 1000z to 14/06/2013 0600z
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ...

Synopsis

 

Upper trough digs east across the UK today, with an open wave of low pressure moving NE across central areas during the day, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop across central areas.

... N WALES, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS AND IRELAND ...

Upper trough, visible as dark/dry slot on recent Water Vapour imagery across the west, will continue to spread east across the UK, steepening lapse rates and creating large scale ascent as dry air intrusion aloft and its associated positive vorticity creates lift ahead of it.

Focus for greatest instability leading to showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be across central parts of the UK and also towards the eastern side of Eire later, where moisture convergence along with limited insolation will generate greatest CAPE (200-400 j/kg). Strongest deep layer shear will be near jet exiting SE England, so will not overlap greatest instability across central areas, therefore, no severe weather is anticipated. However, heavy showers/storms may produce torrential downpours with risk of flooding along with hail and strong convective wind gusts of up to 60mph. Showers/storms should fade after dark.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Edited June 13, 2013 by Nick F

[Staffordshire]

Looks like that stuff in NW wales is organising itself well

[Stormyking]

Good luck to those that have a chance of thunderstorms today!

[Alex95]

Torrential rain around half an hour ago. It feels like something thundery could kick off today given that its only lunch time and we are already getting these downpours.

Edited June 13, 2013 by Alza

[Darren Bown]

That radar looks immense. Shame there's nothing electrical popping up!

[Chris.R]

Just heard the first sferic of the day. Quite far away.

[Darren Bown]

Stuff over Wales must need a rain warning for NW England now? It's intensifying like mad. Looks like it's turning thundery from what Chris has said. Currently in WA2

[Chris.R]

Yes, getting excited about this now. hope i'm not too far north. Listening out for more sferics.

[Chris.R]

Nothing more as yet.

[Chris.R]

OK a load of sferics just started now, still distant so they might actually have been going for a while and I just didn't hear them.

OK some big ones now.

[toggerob]

Just on the periphery of all this given some of the better stuff is out west across Cheshire and Wales, but it's due to move east throughout the day so i'm not ruling anything out for this afternoon into the evening especially with ESTOFEX's forecast of almost anywhere here in the NW expected to be getting something.

 

As of now the air feels oppressive with light-convective rain falling out a cloud ladened skies. Reminds me of being under many developing lows whilst holidaying in Spain during similar scenario's which also brought localised thunderstorms.

[toggerob]

Increasingly torrential rains since this first cell started off as a bit of drizzle, skies getting darker to the west again. game on!