west pacific Tropical Storm Yagi

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Yagi has formed east of the Philippines, with sustained winds of 35kts. Forecast to move north towards Japan and strengthen, at least in the short term. Will have a fuller update later.

[summer blizzard]

Is this normal for Japan at this time of year?

[Somerset Squall]

Yagi should be weakening at this point SB as sea temperatures are low in the vicinity of Japan and shear strong at this time of year. But a landfalling typhoon would be highly unusual in Japan at this time of year yes. Yagi is only expected to be a weakening minimal tropical storm at best at landfall.

Yagi only has about 48hrs to strengthen whilst shear is low and waters warm. A ridge to the east will be the main steering influence, guiding Yagi generally northwards.

[Coast]

[Somerset Squall]

Yagi has strengthened slightly to 40kts. The storm has a modest amount of deep convection over the centre and fragmented banding features. Shear has risen slightly, slowing intensification. Unless shear drops over the next day, Yagi won't strengthen much more. Beyond 36hrs, waters cool along track and shear rises, which will produce weakening as the storm approaches Japan.

[Coast]

Unless shear drops over the next day, Yagi won't strengthen much more. 

 

7:30 p.m. Monday, June 10, Japan time: Tropical Storm Yagi will likely die out well before it reaches any land, according to the latest Japanese forecasts and Joint Typhoon Warning Center updates. Yagi is tracking further east than earlier forecast, and should peak at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts as it crosses the Tropic of Cancer sometime Tuesday. JTWC's 6 p.m. update has Yagi curving east as it moves over cooler northern waters and gets blown apart by vertical wind shear, diminishing to 23-mph sustained winds and 35-mph gusts around mid-day Thursday, some 250 miles south of Yokosuka Naval Base. Unless this changes significantly, PST will sign off and await the next storm.

 

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/tropical-storm-03w-yagi-4-final-1.225175

[Somerset Squall]

Yagi has strengthened slightly to 45kts. The storm retains a well defined LLCC, but with limited deep convection over it due to moderate shear and dry air to the west. Shear will rise further over the next few days, and waters will cool on the north then easterly track south of Japan. Therefore, Yagi has likely peaked.

[Somerset Squall]

Yagi hadn't peaked, and is now a 55kt tropical storm. Poleward and equatorward outflow has improved over the last 12hrs, allowing further strengthening despite the shear. Yagi is running out of time however, as sea temps are fast becoming unfavourable for further development.

[Coast]

 

 

NASA Sees Tropical Storm Yagi Spinning in Western Pacific Ocean

 

Tropical Storm Yagi developed over the weekend of June 8 and 9 in the Western North Pacific from Tropical Depression 03W and NASA satellites captured the storm coming together. NASA’s TRMM satellite measured rainfall rates within the storm and found the heaviest rain falling mostly south of the center.  NASA and the Japanese Space Agency’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite captured the rate rain was falling within Tropical Storm Yagi on June 10 at 8:19 a.m. EDT. The heaviest rain was falling south of the center around the center of circulation at as much as 1.2 inches (30.4 mm) per hour.

 

On June 10, 2013 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Yagi had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kph), which is expected to be its peak wind speed. Yagi was located near 25.0 north and 135.2 east, about 344 nautical miles (396 miles/ 637.1 km) west of Iwo Jima, Japan. Yagi is moving to the northeast at 12 knots (13.8 mph/22.2 kph).  According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, animated infrared imagery reveals a tightly wrapped low-level circulation center that is surrounded by shallow convection. Strong convection (rising air that forms thunderstorms) appears limited in the tropical storm. 

 

To the north of Yagi, vertical wind shear is moderate (between 15 and 20 knots/17.2 and 23.0/ 27.7 and 37.0 kph), and wind shear inhibits development of thunderstorms. Wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Water vapor imagery shows that there is sinking air (subsidence) along the western edge of the storm, which is also inhibiting the development of thunderstorms.  Sea surface temperatures remain warm enough to support Yagi, so the storm is expected to maintain strength for the next 24 hours as it moves northeast. Yagi is expected to dissipate south of Japan sometime before June 14

 

 

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2013/h2013_Yagi.html

[Somerset Squall]

As expected, Yagi has now moved over much cooler water. Convection, which was already shallow, has decreased yet further, and windspeeds associated with Yagi have decreased to 45kts. Yagi is reaching the northern extent of the ridge steering it and should slowly turn east whilst dissipating over the next couple days.

[Somerset Squall]

Yagi is now a convectionless swirl of low clouds south of Japan. Regeneration is not expected due to cool sea temps and high shear.