South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th June 2013 onwards

[john pike]

Oh well I washed the car and said to my mrs

Ok to put the washing out

Didnt work

Heres a radar

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur&lightning=1

Afraid to say anything at present

Look at europe :-(

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_latest_radar.html

[Jax]

Oh well I washed the car and said to my mrsOk to put the washing outDidnt work 

Dammit, that normally does the trick.

[legrandefromage]

'orrible guggyness.

[essexweather]

First storm (well what's left of it) now leaving the French coast near Dieppe and pushing N/NNE with the flow towards Kent

[Tamara]

Thunderstorms breaking out in the right spot (75 miles South of Hastings) as well as cloud development in the English Channel.

 

French radar also starting to develop a mass of rain around Paris.

 

Tough call.

There has been a shield round here for the last few years. I don't mean to be complacent about that, from my own pov, but I didn't expect it to last through this week at all. Since Monday this part of the SE coast has been, apparently, the highest risk area, at least as forecast.

 

From my own pov I am very grateful that each forecast didn't materialise   - although I know for most members who post on here it is a big disappointment

[essexweather]

I think this animation sums things up perfectly: http://www.jerseymet.gov.je/Radar/Radar.html

 

With the English Channel's temperature being below average this year, they just don't want to cross

[Tamara]

I think this animation sums things up perfectly: http://www.jerseymet.gov.je/Radar/Radar.html

 

With the English Channel's temperature being below average this year, they just don't want to cross

Putting aside preferences and hopes (of any kind) I don't think that the channel should have made much difference -on its own. The reason being that with potential energy for storms being in the middle levels then the sea temperature should make no difference to the convective possibilities. This was demonstrated anyway the other week with the mid level storms that western parts of the region (and the south west) saw with sea temperatures which were a degree or so below what we have now further on in the month.

 

Trigger factors are always needed - and I think in this pattern because it was a widespread and quite flat and sluggish European pattern, with an upper ridge of higher pressure in place to cap the atmosphere, there were not enough triggers (convergence points, small troughs and features) to tap into the potential energy that was suggested and break the lid on the atmosphere. The CAPE over large parts of Europe mainland has been sky high in recent days, but the upper Iberian low generating the plume of warm humid air northwards has been slow to move NE till the last 24 hrs, so the keg atmosphere has stayed with a lid on it - away from the proximity of the upper low further south over Spain and France where storms have formed readily.

 

The storms over Germany f.e have only been triggered since yesterday evening. The fact that the trigger low over Iberia has been slow to move NE and destabilise the plume of air further north beyond Northern France, has meant that gathering energy from the atlantic has been able to shunt the trigger point of engagement just that bit further east than if the upper low from Iberia had moved NE sooner.Hence NE France, Benelux and Germany have seen the storms since yesterday and not the UK

 

On the subject of potential energy on our our shores though, its also worth considering that the models maybe kept overestimating the mid level and surface CAPE levels over the UK, so that storms over France could not sustain their energy over the channel (Mid level CAPE) as implied through forecasts. Also, residue cloud amounts spreading north from widespread storm activity over the Mediterranean and France hampered further storm activity either from developing close to the UK or being triggered sufficiently to raise the chances of a storm (from somewhere) getting over here. Sometimes the outflow from one storm creates the activity/trigger to get another one going ASOASF.. In that respect people who wanted storms over here were reliant on something else significant that was missing, as yet another type of trigger, to get the process started.

 

That is the simple opinion from a non storm fan anyway, but meant to be just impartial suggestions

Edited June 20, 2013 by Tamara Road

[essexweather]

Plenty of valid reasoning there Tamara, just on CAPE alone there was never anything special in our region.

 

With only two users reading this topic, I guess we can draw a line under this episode

[Snowangel-MK]

Plenty of valid reasoning there Tamara, just on CAPE alone there was never anything special in our region.

 

With only two users reading this topic, I guess we can draw a line under this episode

 

 

Looks that way - shall we have a nice new one for POETS day then ...here goes...

 

 

New thread coming!

Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

 

 

Here we go....

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77072-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-21st-june-2013-onwards/

 

 

Putting this one to bed now   night all x

Edited June 21, 2013 by MKsnowangel