South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th June 2013 onwards

[chilly milly]

Morning all!  I do believe it's going to be a luverly day!

[Coast]

Morning all!  I do believe it's going to be a luverly day!

 

Morning CM!!

Already looking good in places:

 

 

A bit muggy and humid though:

 

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all overslept this morning. Muggy and cloudy here today. Not much to say other than that.

[lottiekent]

Morning

Up to 17.2c already, going to be a warm one!

Hope you all have a great day

[chilly milly]

Nothing that a cold shower won't cure Coast.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Morning folks

Summer's arrived! A positively balmy 13C with a NE'ly - yippee!!

 

See, I'm being positive

[Coast]

See, I'm being positive

I'm feeling the vibes, thank you NS

Looks encouraging for late tonight into tomorrow for storm fans:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77020-thunderstorm-potential-and-activity-for-wednesday-19th-june-2013/#entry2716659

Edited June 18, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

Me likey this snippet from UKASF:

 

 

Iberia trough becomes a cut-off low, with slight upper ridging over southern Britain. Moisture advection continues to nudge northwards through Tuesday, behind a surface warm front, although a tongue of drier/cooler air will advect across SW/CS England for a time, suppressing convection chances here by the afternoon.

Discussion:

 

As the front edge of a plume, characterised by high ThetaE/ThetaW, continues to advect northwards along the warm frontal boundary, further elevated convection is expected in almost any part of the SLGT area, with the potential for sporadic lightning and locally heavy rain. Activity will continue across the Midlands/Wales/East Anglia into southern portions of northern England by the afternoon, but with the lightning potential ever decreasing through the day as the frontal gradient weakens and instability reduces.

 

Some models simulate surface-based convection development over Kent/Sussex/Essex late in the afternoon and into the evening in an environment of high CAPE (locally near 1000 J/kg), provided surface temperatures (resultant from insolation) reach the projected 23-25C. It is thought given the slack synoptic flow, local seabreeze convergence coupled with upslope flow may allow a thunderstorm or two to form, although exact locations will be difficult to ascertain at this stage. 30-40kts DLS would allow any isolated thunderstorms to remain fairly well-organised, with perhaps some reasonably-sized hail given instability present. Such convection is not a certainty, but a possibility that needs monitoring through Tuesday.

 

Most models then simulate further elevated convection over the eastern English Channel and southern North Sea through the evening and overnight hours (beyond this forecast period), perhaps merging into an MCS-like feature by the end of the night and affecting Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex/Kent/East Sussex. More detail on this will be included in the forecast for Wednesday, assuming the potential remains by then. 

 

[Guenhwyvar]

Good morning.

 

Very muggy already this morning, the sky has a strange light to it this morning, it could be the damp, misty conditions or just general cloud, but it is quite eerie out here in Sussex.

Yes it feels really strange in Sussex..Can smell the sea!!Starting with a pressure headache meaning it's going to be very uncomfortable day!

[Coast]

Yes it feels really strange in Sussex..Can smell the sea!!Starting with a pressure headache meaning it's going to be very uncomfortable day!

 

Morning Guen, nice to see you here again

 

It always feels strange in Sussex, I put it down to the locals..... :unsure: 

[Lauren]

The weather seems to be saying hot but thick cloud which equals humidity - might be good for storms but baaaaaad for my hair.

[Coast]

The weather seems to be saying hot but thick cloud which equals humidity - might be good for storms but baaaaaad for my hair.

 

 

[Tilly]

morning all! I hope everyone is good

 

Im here for the storms looking like its going to be a nice warm day today I've managed to actually put something summery on. Just need that cloud to bugger off now and it will be lovely. I hope our litle spot in Kent gets some nice beefy storms over the next 48hrs, we've done so crap with everything else (snow, warm days) its about time we got something to talk about

[Coast]

morning all! I hope everyone is good

 

its about time we got something to talk about

 

Morning Tilly!

 

I think the next 24 hours will be full of weather talk, I'm just not sure if it will be upbeat or not for everyone :unsure: 

[john pike]

Morning all

Got the sun out here now

[Lauren]

 

.

Think Monica from Friends in Barbados and you'd be closer!

[Jan_Bromley]

Good morning all,

 

Feeling humid with heavy thick cloud. Storms? Oh oh

 

Enjoy them if you like them

[Coast]

.

Think Monica from Friends in Barbados and you'd be closer!

 

 

Good morning all,

 

Feeling humid with heavy thick cloud. Storms? Oh oh

 

Enjoy them if you like them

 

 

Morning Jan - how are you apart from the ickle potential for a storm?

[Tilly]

Morning Tilly!

 

I think the next 24 hours will be full of weather talk, I'm just not sure if it will be upbeat or not for everyone

 

Its going to be amazing. If not Im moving somewhere else, maybe Lake Maracaibo...less letdowns

[Jan_Bromley]

 

Morning Jan - how are you apart from the ickle potential for a storm?

 

Better thanks Rob

 

How are you, apart from suffering your usual madness?

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Warm with thick cloud and 'that' feel about. Like there's something in the air. (As Thunderclap Newman used to sing)

Hope you all have a good day and.......GOOD LUCK!!

[Coast]

 

 

How are you, apart from suffering your usual madness?

 

Oh you know me, same old same old....... 

Lake Maracaibo...less letdowns

 

More water? :unsure: 

[bobbydog]

hi people, not been on for a while, life's been pretty 'tempestuous' of late. i seem to be in the 'eye of the storm' right now.

a brief respite to enjoy other things in life, like the weather!

 

so while its calm, lets hope we get....... a storm! lol 

[snow raven]

I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Thor (or at least it had better do, or Thor will have me to answer to!)

 

Seriously though, really humid here in London and the sun is trying desperately to break through the clouds.  Fingers crossed for storms later today and/or tonight (as long as they avoid Tom, Jan and Tamara's houses!)