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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Air is thick! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Thanks Nick as ever :D Really is going to be one of those days, where something may develop or then again it may not!

 

NAE predictions certainly do not appear to be plumping for an MCS - seems far to linear for anything of that sort and nowhere near as intense enough in terms of precip output (nevertheless still may be thundery). That said, still obviously cant rule out an MCS type setup either.

 

Somewhat surprising many people are finding it oppressive and sultry - certainly doesn't feel like it here as yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I think that today's top temp for heathrow is probably underdone by quite a few degrees,

 

post-5986-0-41005500-1371547326_thumb.gipost-5986-0-63005600-1371547316_thumb.gi

 

As a consequence, one would expect the parcel trajectory to move right on the skew-t evaporating the CIN, and introducing some (more) CAPE. Not sure it's going to be warm enough to overcome that flat bit at 500hPa, but I guess we'll see.

 

Hersmonceaux 12z ascent, crucial viewing for today and tomorrow, not sure that GooFuS has a great handle on this,

 

post-5986-0-36522500-1371547725_thumb.gipost-5986-0-35043800-1371547748_thumb.gi

 

(bear in mind that the forecast is for Heathrow, not Herstmonceaux)

 

I would say warmer than forecast, which should lead to greater instability.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

As usual, this will be down to radar and detectors from lunchtime and I imagine there may be a few toys laying around tonight....

 

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Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)

Thanks Nick as ever Posted Image Really is going to be one of those days, where something may develop or then again it may not!

 

NAE predictions certainly do not appear to be plumping for an MCS - seems far to linear for anything of that sort and nowhere near as intense enough in terms of precip output (nevertheless still may be thundery). That said, still obviously cant rule out an MCS type setup either.

 

Somewhat surprising many people are finding it oppressive and sultry - certainly doesn't feel like it here as yet.

Does feel sultry here..  popped out to post a letter and on way back felt like taking me t-shirt off (note:-  must work off my beer belly!!)

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I think that today's top temp for heathrow is probably underdone by quite a few degrees,

 

Saying that, Heathrow MetObs is 16.8C for 9z, and GooFuS forecast 17.9C for 9z! So the real world has quite some catching up to do! Suppose I should check obs first Posted Image

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Here in Brighton we have low cloud and moisture off the cool Channel as the warm air travels across from the continent.

 

Has this burnt off on the other side of the Down's - Coast - anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Burning off up here on Bluebell Hill ....


Saying that, Heathrow MetObs is 16.8C for 9z, and GooFuS forecast 17.9C for 9z! So the real world has quite some catching up to do! Suppose I should check obs first Posted Image

 

Updated 10z MetObs is 18.3C, so the real world has not only caught up, it's overtaking GooFuS!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Has this burnt off on the other side of the Down's - Coast - anyone?

 

Still hazy but getting warmer, sun is trying it's hardest!

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)

Here in Brighton we have low cloud and moisture off the cool Channel as the warm air travels across from the continent.

 

Has this burnt off on the other side of the Down's - Coast - anyone?

Nice warm and sunny this side

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

*yawn* all the storm potential shunted to London & the SE Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Satellite imagery seems to show the cloud bank over France beginning to fragment.

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Primary low moved further South than I was expecting in all honesty, though I suspect this could prompt shallow thundery lows to spawn as the heat builds.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

You could see yesterday that the trend from the models was for this to be less spectacular than first thought. Some people might see more activity under LP at the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

NetAtmo reading 21.9c and the sun just starting to fry off the cloud......

 

Don't want to hex it by getting the camera charged...... Might just go and look longingly at last Months' pics. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

MetO going for rain for 4am tomorrow morning, whilst GooFuS has the same feature at around the same time, but further East than MetO,

 

post-5986-0-46371400-1371549581_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-58966800-1371549956_thumb.gi

... and GooFuS one of the cool runs, yet again,

 

post-5986-0-50726500-1371549682_thumb.pn

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

a qs guys. What r the chances of storm activities over wm in the next few days? Thx.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Sun has been out here for a couple of hours now; albeit hazy and starting to warm up. To be honest i am losing interest though after seeing latest GoodbyeFrenchStorms runs.

Edit: Clear blue skies now after checking out office window. Will be interesting how warm it gets with much less cloud than forecasted.

Edited by Supacell
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Really hope this quite unique set up doesn't go to waste? Otherwise once again I need to get my TS fix, erm, abroad...yet again!?

Love the beautiful sunny days (like today) but when it comes to anything more than a grumbly shower...it is becoming a yawnfest month in month out..

Edited by triple_x1
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Looking rather good for my location between 3pm to 9pm with the peak of this potential around 6pm. The main area appears to be around Cambs, Wash and this was mentioned also this morning on the BBC breakfast news.

 

Later on this evening into overnight we could see some action into the SE spreading N in E Anglia but as ever in these situations its case of following the radar.

 

Great to be back by the way as I haven't posted since March. Nothing better than thunderstorm potential to bring me out of retirement!

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

You never know, this lot coming up from France could destabilise in the plume due to forcing and break down into multicellular MCS systems crossing the country as torrential rains, gusting winds, and lightning rates of +800 strikes per hour. We could dream Posted Image

 

Just the usual 'milky skies' to report here after some hints of AcCas earlier on this morning, if anything was to develop then convective wise it'll look to be around the mid-layers.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

The Channel seems to be killing off relatively intense preciptation,

 

post-5986-0-79509500-1371550628_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-59750100-1371550639_thumb.pn

 

First French sferics of the day,

 

post-5986-0-94128200-1371550709_thumb.pn

 

Woohoo!

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Hmm.. clouding over here was nice n sunny.. lots of high stuff has moved in.

Looks to stay that way today for many too;post-12721-0-93897100-1371551381_thumb.jpost-12721-0-94729000-1371551388_thumb.jpost-12721-0-95894500-1371551400_thumb.jpost-12721-0-15485800-1371551414_thumb.jSunshine looks to be at a premium.
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