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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

We still have good Cape in eastern areas, if any sunny spells develop then who knows? , although with the upper ridge the trigger temperature is around 40c pmpl.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

The action, I think, is mostly due early hours tomorrow morning,

 

post-5986-0-76541900-1371552052_thumb.gipost-5986-0-24728500-1371552058_thumb.gipost-5986-0-60538700-1371552063_thumb.gi

 

The situation is nicely illustrated with the 2m temp forecast. Watch the temperature between midnight and 9am in the SE; should be falling, right?

 

post-5986-0-42462800-1371552341_thumb.gipost-5986-0-41716900-1371552346_thumb.gipost-5986-0-58958400-1371552351_thumb.gipost-5986-0-73705800-1371552357_thumb.gi

Edited by Sparkicle
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

Looks like this 'event' is turning into a damp squib. The feed of precip miving N from France is dying out over the Channel, leaving a load of clag and cloud to cover S England, suppressing sun and warmth. Sad, the potential was there! Though am still hoping something comes off before the weekend's awful charts.

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Yep as expected, 95% of the UK will see nothing thundery this week, plenty of cloud and an uncomfortable humidity. Boring.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Humidity now noticeably on the climb around here, although far from having that 'energy' we often get from plume setups. 

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Yep as expected, 95% of the UK will see nothing thundery this week, plenty of cloud and an uncomfortable humidity. Boring.

 

Blimey, I must invest in one of those:

 

Posted Image

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted (edited)

My storm warning published on my weather page.

Storm risk for the South-East this afternoon with an area of thundery rain looking threatening over France currently. If this area of thundery does reach our shores then thunderstorms could be sparked off on its northern flank. Relatively high temperatures and very high dew points will theoretically create a boiling pot of deep instability in the atmosphere, possibly leading to explosive thundery activity through tonight and tomorrow.

 
post-15503-0-35652300-1371554453_thumb.j
Edited by PerfectStorm
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)
Humidity now noticeably on the climb around here, although far from having that 'energy' we often get from plume setups. 

 

Though there is a small chance of home-grown fun, I think most of the stuff is likely to be imported from France, and that the real warm humid mass is not due to move in until this afternoon, evening,

 

post-5986-0-32342300-1371554422_thumb.gipost-5986-0-01964100-1371554427_thumb.gipost-5986-0-36427900-1371554432_thumb.gipost-5986-0-42602300-1371554437_thumb.gi

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/324/

Edited by Sparkicle
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Yep as expected, 95% of the UK will see nothing thundery this week, plenty of cloud and an uncomfortable humidity. Boring.

Been over on to UKWW and they tend to broadly agree it seems.
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toggerob Veteran

toggerob

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

You know I don't really care if I get a direct hit here locally as photogenic wise its easier to watch a storm spitting out strobe lightning and anvil forks a hundred or so miles away, it can be just as fun.

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Southern Storm Seasoned

Southern Storm

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted

Very gray here, and feels cooler for some reason also the wind is picking up, I don't know if this means anything

What i would give for a good storm

I keep asking my wife (who's French) if we can move to france, but she always says no

I think its because she knows that it's not French lifestyle that I'm interested in lol

I'll keep working on it, as i believe I have more chance of moving to France than getting a good storm

Here in the uk!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

 

My storm warning published on my weather page.

Storm risk for the South-East this afternoon with an area of thundery rain looking threatening over France currently. If this area of thundery does reach our shores then thunderstorms could be sparked off on its northern flank. Relatively high temperatures and very high dew points will theoretically create a boiling pot of deep instability in the atmosphere, possibly leading to explosive thundery activity through tonight and tomorrow.

 

 

 

To be honest however much I love your forecast and wish very much for it to be true, I am quite a bit more pessimistic :cray:

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

 

 

You can tell this was produced a few years ago - can't remember the last time we had 32C with SSTs of 20C!!! lol

Edited by Harry
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted (edited)

Very gray here, and feels cooler for some reason also the wind is picking up, I don't know if this means anythingWhat i would give for a good stormI keep asking my wife (who's French) if we can move to france, but she always says noI think its because she knows that it's not French lifestyle that I'm interested in lolI'll keep working on it, as i believe I have more chance of moving to France than getting a good stormHere in the uk!

 

 

 

Lol, beg and plead! My brother lives 40kms N of Paris, near Chantilly. I wish I was able to visit this week!!

Edited by stainesbloke
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Maybe its Thursday we should be looking at?

The NAE has some intense rainfall moving up from France during Thursday morning both for the SE and SW related to a low pressure accompanied with high humidity and dewpoints:

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Barely a sferic on french soil in the past 15 mins..... Had hoped the frontal cloud may have broken up a bit more also.

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Southern Storm Seasoned

Southern Storm

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted

Lol, beg and plead! My brother lives 40kms N of Paris, near Chantilly. I wish I was able to visit this week!!

every time I have been to France in sping and summer I've had a good Storm, one that seamed quite active to me at the time only to be told by the in Laws that its just a small storm!Makes me sick it does.
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Makes me sick it does.

 

Sticking my fingers down my throat always makes me sick......

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toggerob Veteran

toggerob

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

METAR for Gatwick and Stansted showing a 30% chance of storms into the afternoon, with nottingham also going for rain. A small improvement from this morning where neither METAR was showing anything other than scattered clouds.

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Wet'n'Dry Enthusiast

Wet'n'Dry

Posted
  • Location: Basildon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon
Posted

Afternoon all, it's quite an eerie feeling out there at the moment. It would be on days like this that my dog would bury herself behind the sofa cos she knew what was coming!!

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

Afternoon all, it's quite an eerie feeling out there at the moment. It would be on days like this that my dog would bury herself behind the sofa cos she knew what was coming!!

 

Throwing beer-cans at the dog just because you didn't get a t/storm, is not acceptable behaviour ;)

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Blanket of cloud still strewn across the sky....positively pants!

 

Not a decent break in sight after the promising breaks which appeared this morning.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

Curiously enough, GooFuS 6z was pretty much the coolest run for this week,

 

post-5986-0-87244300-1371557199_thumb.pn

Blanket of cloud still strewn across the sky....positively pants!

 

Not a decent break in sight after the promising breaks which appeared this morning.

 

Yes, milky pants stratus deritus here in Rochester, too.

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