Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

[ptow]

Oh no no no, not the Express.

 

Firstly, I don't think I've seen a chart which gets us close to 32C!! The most generous I've seen is GFS which at one point had 29C possible, but that assumes little cloud and certainly no mess left over from overnight showers (or indeed from the fronts which have plagued us today). Even in unbroken sunshine, 30C might be scraped IMO, but a scraping at best.

 

As for violent tropical thunderstorms, I reserve judgement. The use of the word tropical at our latitude is amusing - even Florida climatically speaking is classified only as sub-tropical and they get regular heat, humidity, storms and hurricanes.

 

I wouldn't read into that article too much to be honest - it's a lot of hype IMO. 

 

(However, I beg to be proven wrong - violent tropical storms do sound fun!!!)

 

South Florida is tropical, I beleive

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by ptow

[Eskimo]

Area of rain over France is deteriorating and the cloud is slowly breaking up.  

[Harry]

South Florida is tropical, I beleive

 

To be honest I think it varies from literature to literature, but the majority I have read suggests it is sub-tropical, much like the Wikipedia link below (apologies for such an academic atrocity)  

 

 

Florida does not have (I believe) a distinct wet and dry season which is why I think it does not qualify - that and unlike the tropics, Florida can get quite cool in the winter months, unlike say Kuala Lumpur where even in their relative winter temperatures seldom drop much below 23-24C. Latitude I think also means it does not qualify.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Harry

[nanu]

Area of rain over France is deteriorating and the cloud is slowly breaking up.  

thats what i noticed.. looks like its gonna be dry here and dry over there.. not even anything home grown to talk about.

[Harry]

thats what i noticed.. looks like its gonna be dry here and dry over there.. not even anything home grown to talk about.

 

Chaps...the real juicy stuff isn't modeled to develop for some hours yet. We really need to keep patient and radar watch from say 9pm onwards. 

[Tim Bland]

No strikes at all in France ATM. Another non event?

[Neilsouth]

No strikes at all in France ATM. Another non event?

Nothing due really till late evening

[Keraunic]

I read that it was going to be stormy from early hours of morning to rush hour time??? Could be wrong I suppose. :O

[Harry]

Humidity still rising* - now it's starting to feel a bit more conducive - certainly feels more thundery than this morning.

 

(*Hasten to add my reference to humidity is based solely on how it feels, rather than gadgetry/data ) 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Harry

[Darren Bown]

My location is already 2C above the Metoffice's prediction of 21C, 23C here and that's probably because of the abundance of sunshine compared to the cloudy day forecast. Still, it feels very uncomfortable in my office!

[Coast]

Humidity still rising* - now it's starting to feel a bit more conducive 

 

Harry, step away from the bath with that three-bar fire plugged in....

 

(sorry, I thought you said conductive...)

[Ben Sainsbury]

Expecting something to form late night on the north coast of France and spread northwards!

[Supacell]

12z GFS shows no precipitation tonight now. What a thoroughly confusing set of runs from the different models!

[Convective]

Interesting to note that even this far north we have light mid-layer convection bubbling around. Could be the aftermaths of yesterdays storms?

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS is absolutely terrible for the latest run, only LI's of -2 when some days ago it was -6...

[Harry]

Has the NAE/NMM models updated at all?? (He says with despair in the voice!)

[Supacell]

Has the NAE/NMM models updated at all?? (He says with despair in the voice!)

 

My NMM model doesn't tend to update until after the GFS has finished, but then updates all in one go (NW Extra light). I suppose SBCAPE charts are pointless to look at seeing as any thunderstorms will be elevated so who knows, up there it may be a different story. The lack of precipitation on the latest run is worrying though, are the GFS onto something or is it just very inaccurate at a very short timescale?

 

Ironically, warmest place currently is up in the NW near Chester at 24c. 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Supacell

[Panayiotis]

Yes the sun is out as the cloud is beginning to thin out, humidity on the rise (currently at 80%) with temperatures at 21C. Hopefully this can give a good base if anything starts...

[Coast]

Don't forget there is a dedicated thread running that we should switch to from midnight onwards for 24 hours (if we all survive that long) 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77020-thunderstorm-potential-and-activity-for-wednesday-19th-june-2013/

Edited June 18, 2013 by Coast

[Darren Bown]

My NMM model doesn't tend to update until after the GFS has finished, but then updates all in one go (NW Extra light). I suppose SBCAPE charts are pointless to look at seeing as any thunderstorms will be elevated so who knows, up there it may be a different story. The lack of precipitation on the latest run is worrying though, are the GFS onto something or is it just very inaccurate at a very short timescale?

 

Ironically, warmest place currently is up in the NW near Chester at 24c. 

 

 

Yes it's positively balmy up here (Warrington) at 23C at the moment and feels humid just because of the higher than expected temps.

[Cheshire Freeze]

My NMM model doesn't tend to update until after the GFS has finished, but then updates all in one go (NW Extra light). I suppose SBCAPE charts are pointless to look at seeing as any thunderstorms will be elevated so who knows, up there it may be a different story. The lack of precipitation on the latest run is worrying though, are the GFS onto something or is it just very inaccurate at a very short timescale?

 

Ironically, warmest place currently is up in the NW near Chester at 24c. 

 

Yep, been very oppressive here in Cheshire today. Especially when the sun was out

Edited June 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Eskimo]

There is a real pungent smell of ozone!

[Methuselah]

There is a real pungent smell of ozone!

You can put the Scalectric away now...

[Eskimo]

You can put the Scalectric away now...

Blimey yeah those things really did kick up a hum! 

[Coast]

KMNI/SatRep have finally updated their take on the movement of weather fronts for tonight: