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Met Office experts meet to analyse 'unusual' weather patterns


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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

Always good to read the thoughts with a scientific analysys of things, and not just peddling set opinions, but I dont see the latter here anyway. I would imagine defining a baseline will be the first thing on the agenda, or most probably confirming it.BTW - does anyone have any figures on mass transport of heat towards the poles? - maybe some sort of 850mb temperature averaged out across a lattitude line, and mean tropospheric wind speed northward component ?, over a decent time period - I keep meaning to take a look and see if I can get these figures -  probably a rediculous request and off topic!

 

:) Sam

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I thought my post was balanced John as I highlighted what could be reasons why and asked why are they not consulting with others in- house such as Judith Curry.

 

Why the focus on Judith Curry? Remember that she is over in the US, and this is a workshop based in the UK and about the UK weather. Aside from that, there are thousands of climate and meteorology experts around the world, why should she receive an invite in particular?

 

These kind of workshops happen all the time, this isn't a big deal.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Quite agree BFTV and it would be stupid not to hold them. Ed Hawkins, clmate scientist at Reading mention it on Twitter earlier and linked it the account in the Guardian which seems quite balanced to me.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/18/weather-experts-discuss-unusual-uk-seaons

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

These kind of workshops happen all the time, this isn't a big deal.

Quite agree, another previous large gathering of scientists was HERE in 2009, they seem to hold many smaller such events and announcments quite often anyway.

 

Trying to "second guess" why and who came and why what they are to find etc is much like taking the daily model output, it may give you an idea of what the weather will be doing when they come out, but if it is gonna rain, it will rain, no matter what we all thought as they went in.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Why the focus on Judith Curry? Remember that she is over in the US, and this is a workshop based in the UK and about the UK weather. Aside from that, there are thousands of climate and meteorology experts around the world, why should she receive an invite in particular?These kind of workshops happen all the time, this isn't a big deal.

Why not? Or is it that she speaks how she sees it and we all know that goes against the consensus. IMO by omitting scientist such as Judith speaks volumes with regards to just what they intend discussing. Also she happens to be at the forefront in research of natural cycles and there influence on climate, after all isn't that the purpose of this said meeting, to discuss possible causation. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Just announced in the past few minutes

 

More research needed into Atlantic temperatures, Arctic ice and solar change, Met Office unusual weather conference concludes

 

Pretty much what we all expected

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Just announced in the past few minutes More research needed into Atlantic temperatures, Arctic ice and solar change, Met Office unusual weather conference concludes Pretty much what we all expected

Lol, now that's why they should have invited Judith Curry and myself thinking about it. :-)
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Will someone give me a logical reason why spring and autumn 2011 are not in that list of UK's run of unusual seasons?

Oversight?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/18/meeting-on-uks-run-of-unusual-seasons/

Facts on recent unusual seasons in the UK

All facts are based on UK figures in the national records dating back to 1910.

Spring 2013 – mean temperature of 6.0 °C; 5th coldest on record; coldest since 1962 (ie coldest in 51 years).

March 2013 – mean temperature of 2.2 °C; joint 2nd coldest on record; coldest since 1962 (ie coldest in 51 years).

Year of 2012 – 1337.3 mm of rain; 2nd wettest year on record; the wettest since 2000.

Summer of 2012 – 379.2 mm of rain; 2nd wettest on record; wettest since 1912 (ie wettest for 100 years).

June 2012 – 149.0 mm of rain; wettest on record.

April 2012 – 128.0 mm of rain; wettest on record.

Winter 2010/11 – mean temperature of 2.43 °C, which is 1.3C below the 1981-2010 average;

December 2010 – mean temperature of -0.18 °C; coldest on record.

Recent summers – six out of seven recent summers have had above average rainfall, with only 2010 being average.

Three summers (2012, 2011, 2007) have seen the triple ‘disappointment’ of having below average temperatures, below average sunshine, and above average rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I'm pretty sure they would have taken the AMO into context with regards to the North Atlantic. I still feel we know little of deep oceanic heating apart from the obvious ones.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Why not? Or is it that she speaks how she sees it and we all know that goes against the consensus. IMO by omitting scientist such as Judith speaks volumes with regards to just what they intend discussing. Also she happens to be at the forefront in research of natural cycles and there influence on climate, after all isn't that the purpose of this said meeting, to discuss possible causation.

 

But there are thousands of other experts, from all around the world, similarly at the forefront of climate research. Many even more experienced and with finer expertise in the area of climate and mid latitude weather. The only thing that separates Judith Curry is her somewhat climate "sceptical" stance.

 

I'm sure if she really wanted to attend, then she could have. There is no need for this conspiracy theory stuff.

 

Perhaps you could email Dr Curry and ask why she chose to ignore a workshop that you feel she would have been a vital part of?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Will someone give me a logical reason why spring and autumn 2011 are not in that list of UK's run of unusual seasons?

Oversight?

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/18/meeting-on-uks-run-of-unusual-seasons/

 

 

Why not ask them?

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

But there are thousands of other experts, from all around the world, similarly at the forefront of climate research. Many even more experienced and with finer expertise in the area of climate and mid latitude weather. The only thing that separates Judith Curry is her somewhat climate "sceptical" stance. I'm sure if she really wanted to attend, then she could have. There is no need for this conspiracy theory stuff. Perhaps you could email Dr Curry and ask why she chose to ignore a workshop that you feel she would have been a vital part of?

Her somewhat sceptical stance is something that used to be mandatory amongst all scientists and there lies the problem.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Scientists say UK wet summers down to Atlantic warming

 

The UK's recent run of damp summers could be down to a cyclical warming of the Atlantic Ocean. That was the view of scientists and meteorologists who gathered at the Met Office to discuss the unusual weather patterns of recent years. They said that this 10 to 20 year pattern of Atlantic warming was shifting the jet stream, leading to washouts in six of the last seven summers. But they suggested that the pattern would change at some point in the next decade.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22959578

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Great, so another possible 10 years of this Junk. At least Winters are of a higher chance of some interest with snow. I hate cold but only snow makes it worthwhile.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Cheers for emailing them Weather-history. I look forward to their replyPosted Image

 

 

Her somewhat sceptical stance is something that used to be mandatory amongst all scientists and there lies the problem.

 

All scientists, by their very nature, are sceptics. It's what drives them to investigate, study and improve their understanding of things, rather than a rule or something that they must abide by.

Just because someone calls themselves a sceptic though, doesn't make them one. That's why I put sceptical in quotation marks. Self proclaimed "climate sceptics" are rarely genuine sceptics, and only apply their version of "scepticism" when it comes to things they don't like the sound of, like most peer reviewed science or anything/anyone else that accepts the importance of humanity as a driver in our climate. Most of these will disregard their "scepticism" and blindly accept anything that backs up their opinions, thus showing themselves to be far from genuine sceptics.

 

Would you care to address any of the other points in my previous posts?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Cheers for emailing them Weather-history. I look forward to their replyPosted Image

 

 

 

All scientists, by their very nature, are sceptics. It's what drives them to investigate, study and improve their understanding of things, rather than a rule or something that they must abide by.

Just because someone calls themselves a sceptic though, doesn't make them one. That's why I put sceptical in quotation marks. Self proclaimed "climate sceptics" are rarely genuine sceptics, and only apply their version of "scepticism" when it comes to things they don't like the sound of, like most peer reviewed science or anything/anyone else that accepts the importance of humanity as a driver in our climate. Most of these will disregard their "scepticism" and blindly accept anything that backs up their opinions, thus showing themselves to be far from genuine sceptics.

 

Would you care to address any of the other points in my previous posts?

Indeed. Disagreeing with/denying a consensus doesn't make one a 'sceptic'.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

A total of 25 delegates attended including representatives from the Universities of Exeter, Leeds, Oxford, Reading and Imperial College London, as well as the Met Office.

Workshops of this kind are held on a regular basis on a great deal of issues across weather and climate science.

Today's included sessions which looked at the weather patterns and their potential causes in three recent seasons - the cold winter of 2010/11, the wet summer of 2012, andthis year's cold spring.

Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre and chair of the meeting, said: "Ultimately what we've seen in each of these seasons is shifts in the position of the jet stream which impact our weather in certain ways at different times of year.

"The key question is what is causing the jet stream to shift in this way? There is some research to say some parts of the natural system load the dice to influence certain states of the jet stream, but this loading may be further amplified by climate change."

There are a number of possible factors which could be 'loading the dice', including declining Arctic sea ice, solar variability, long-term ocean cycles, and other long-term cycles of natural variability.

The workshop focused on the latest research looking at how these drivers can influence weather patterns and discussed future research can be targeted to push forward understanding in this area.

Six out of the last seven UK summers have seen above average rainfall (2010 is the exception, with average rainfall) and the workshop heard new evidence from the University of Reading suggesting that long-term Atlantic currents may be playing an important role.

These are understood to operate on cycles of a decade or more, which suggests that we may see their influence on our summers for a few more years to come. While these influence the odds of a wet summer, it doesn't rule out the possibility of decent summers over the next few years.

With regards to the cold winters, there is a wide range of drivers that could have an influence.

There is some initial evidence to suggest that changes in Arctic climate may also be making an impact.

Dr James Screen, from the University of Exeter, said: "There has been a lot of talk about declining Arctic sea ice playing a role in our weather patterns, but really that's just one aspect of changes in the Arctic climate - which has seen rapid warming compared to other parts of the world.

"Those changes mean there is less of a difference in temperature between the Arctic and tropics, which could impact the position of the jet stream."

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/meeting-unusual-seasons

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Scientists say UK wet summers down to Atlantic warming

 

The UK's recent run of damp summers could be down to a cyclical warming of the Atlantic Ocean. That was the view of scientists and meteorologists who gathered at the Met Office to discuss the unusual weather patterns of recent years. They said that this 10 to 20 year pattern of Atlantic warming was shifting the jet stream, leading to washouts in six of the last seven summers. But they suggested that the pattern would change at some point in the next decade.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22959578

This must be a joke right as surely they are aware that the AMO has been in its positive phase during this period.

Cheers for emailing them Weather-history. I look forward to their reply:good:

 

 

 

All scientists, by their very nature, are sceptics. It's what drives them to investigate, study and improve their understanding of things, rather than a rule or something that they must abide by.

Just because someone calls themselves a sceptic though, doesn't make them one. That's why I put sceptical in quotation marks. Self proclaimed "climate sceptics" are rarely genuine sceptics, and only apply their version of "scepticism" when it comes to things they don't like the sound of, like most peer reviewed science or anything/anyone else that accepts the importance of humanity as a driver in our climate. Most of these will disregard their "scepticism" and blindly accept anything that backs up their opinions, thus showing themselves to be far from genuine sceptics.

 

Would you care to address any of the other points in my previous posts?

The rest of your previous post was just noise so I ignored that and concentrated on the factual content.. So are you implying that I'm a denialist then?
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

This must be a joke right as surely they are aware that the AMO has been in its positive phase during this period.The rest of your previous post was just noise so I ignored that and concentrated on the factual content.. So are you implying that I'm a denialist then?

 

I didn't imply you were a "denialist". My point was about the improper use of the term sceptical/sceptic and how it has proliferated across the anti-climate science community.

 

I suppose it's easier to dismiss and ignore arguments that catch flaws in your reasoning as "noise", block your ears and continue to believe conspiracy theories instead. It's not particularly conducive to a respectful and open discussion though.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

This must be a joke right as surely they are aware that the AMO has been in its positive phase during this period.The rest of your previous post was just noise so I ignored that and concentrated on the factual content.. So are you implying that I'm a denialist then?

Quite agree. After all we have had positive AMO's in the past they could have anologued.

Some of their remarks and quotes over the last few years make it hard to believe they

are a professional organisation at all with statements like this. 

Maybe its just poorly written and they need to invest in a new public corespondent.

They also need to reassess not just why its been cold but why there forcasts are

continually to warm.

Even though I am a forum member I am not allowed to post in the enviornmental

climat thread along with several others at least and I know this is not the  global warming

thread  but AGW or otherwise is a dead duck and has been for some time.

A quieter sun will show us which way the climate is heading.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Cheers for emailing them Weather-history. I look forward to their replyPosted Image

 

 

 

All scientists, by their very nature, are sceptics.

sceptics

1. philosophy... a person who habitually doubts the authenticity of accepted beliefs.

2.a person who mistrusts people, ideas,etc, in general

 

True scientists are nothing of the sort they are not swayed one way or another but

seek to find the truth, knowledge,  facts etc.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The UK's recent run of damp summers could be down to a cyclical warming of the Atlantic Ocean. That was the view of scientists and meteorologists who gathered at the Met Office to discuss the unusual weather patterns of recent years. They said that this 10 to 20 year pattern of Atlantic warming was shifting the jet stream, leading to washouts in six of the last seven summers. But they suggested that the pattern would change at some point in the next decade. The researchers said the location of the fast moving winds of the jet stream was critical to the UK's weather. When it becomes fixed in position south of the British Isles, low pressure systems can get stuck in the peaks and troughs that form along the edge of the stream, leading to the seemingly endless rainy days that have characterised our summers in recent years. Even the buzz of the London Olympics could not disguise the washout that was last summer, the second wettest for the UK since records began. What the scientists meeting in Exeter were hoping to understand were the underlying factors that move the jet stream south of the UK .

 

Prof Stephen Belcher from the Met Office Hadley Centre, who lead the discussions said that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as the ocean current is called, was one of the prime factors.  "It's the pattern of warm and cold water, it's the contrast of the warm and the cold, when that sits in the right place beneath the jet stream, it can kind of steer the jet stream and influence where it goes," he said. "I'm excited about this work, it's a new thing that we didn't really know about."

 

Basket cases

 

The scientists said that the AMO phenomenon had occurred in the 1880s, the 1950s and in the early 1960s. The most recent research was published last year by a team at Reading University. Explaining the cold winters of 2010/11 and this past spring were more of a challenge, said the scientists. Dr James Screen from the University of Exeter said that a more complicated basket of factors was involved. "The cycle we've been talking about in the north Atlantic seems to be more important for controlling summer weather in the UK, our current understanding of the role of Arctic sea ice is that it is more important in controlling winter weather." The researchers say that the glimmer of good news is that the AMO might change in five to 10 years, and warmer summers might return. However the winter was more difficult to predict said Prof Belcher. "There are hints we are coming to the end of the cycle. With the cold winter weather, the loadings of the dice don't seem to follow cycles," he said. As to the current summer season, according to Dr Adam Scaife from the Hadley Centre, you'd be wise to keep an umbrella handy. "In 2012, like the previous few summers, we've had conditions in the northernmost Atlantic that were much warmer than normal. "So that pre-conditioning was there this year and that shifts the odds slightly in favour of this summer being wetter than the historical average."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22959578

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Scientists say UK wet summers down to Atlantic warming

 The UK's recent run of damp summers could be down to a cyclical warming of the Atlantic Ocean

 

 

 

 

Is this strictly accurate. I saw Stephen Belcher interviewed on West Country today and he said there maybe  a link to the cyclical warming of the Atlantic south of Greenland. Seems to me that's slightly different.

Edited by knocker
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