west pacific Tropical Storm Bebinca

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 05W has formed west of the Philippines, in the South China Sea (SCS). Sustained winds are 25kts. The depression has formative banding features in the southern quadrant, but little convection directly over the LLCC due to moderate shear. 05W is expected to push north through the SCS over the next day along the western side of a ridge well east of the Philippines. The depression is then forecast to turn northwest, then west-northwest towards Hainan Island, as ridging builds to the north. Moderate shear and the currently broad nature of the depression should keep intensification from being too significant, but 05W is expected to achieve tropical storm intensity prior to landfall, currently progged north of Hainan Island. However, with a system such as this, it is important not to focus on the system's centre as the main issue with 05W will be rain, which most of which is currently falling from the system's sprawling bands reaching far out from the centre.

 

[summer blizzard]

Great track but i'm not entirely convinced this has a primary center, the precipitation to the south looks completely disconnected from the main low and looks to have a slight circulation of its own.

 

 

I make one center around 17N, 115W and other south east of that for the main batch. 

[Somerset Squall]

05W has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bebinca, with sustained winds of 35kts. Bebinca is a sheared tropical cyclone with the LLCC completely exposed from the convection. Bebinca has likely peaked as shear is expected to remain strong as the storm approaches Hainan Island. Dissipation is expected to occur in 48hrs time as landfall occurs north of Hainan.

[summer blizzard]

Has this gone further south than first forecast?

[Somerset Squall]

It has SB. Bebinca has turned sharply west and has made landfall on the east coast of Hainan Island instead of to the north. Intensity has fallen to 25kts as land disrupts Bebinca's circulation. When Bebinca emerges over the Gulf Of Tonkin it could briefly regain TS status before another landfall near the China/Vietnam border.

[Somerset Squall]

Bebinca has not restrengthened over the Gulf Of Tonkin. Instead, severe shear has decapitated the depression. The convection has been completely removed from the LLCC, and is well inland across central Vietnam, leaving the LLCC to drift slowly towards the coast well behind it. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

[Coast]

 

Tropical storm Bebinca hit Qionghai in south China's Hainan province Saturday morning It brought heavy downpours to most of the country's southern coastal areas.

 

Residents brave the heavy rain in Qionghai City, south Chin's Hainan Province on June 22, 2013. 

 

So far, the storm has sunken one fishing boat in Hainan. Another fishing boat with four crew members on board is missing. Despite being named after a dessert in Macau, tropical storm Bebinca has brought gales and torrential rain to Hainan, Guangxi and the South China Sea. Weather forecasters warn that boats in the area should take precautions. Bebinca began forming on Friday and is now moving westward. It is expected to cause huge waves measuring two to three meters in the country's southern coastal provinces. However, the storm's rainfalls could also bring relief from the high temperatures that have smothered most of China over the past week.

 

Shipping in Qiongzhou Strait, which links the island province of Hainan and the Chinese mainland, has been suspended. Flights and train services in and out of Hainan have also been disrupted. Weather forecasters have warned residents to be on guard against the extreme weather conditions and their potential damage.

 

 

 

http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2013-06/24/content_29206848.htm