July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition

[March Blizzard]

My first above average entry of the year: 17.9C.

Edited June 30, 2013 by March Blizzard

[Alex]

Easy to forget, but July 2010 had a CET of 17.1C, despite plenty of cloud, rain and no significant warm spells.

Probably due to the southeast having a very warm month, I averaged over 25c for this month and mins were high too. There were quite alot of days over 25c too.

Check out Andrewsfield weather station about 20miles NW of where I live.

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/ANDREWSFIELD/07-2010/36840.htm

I will go for 17.7c - July is looking good!

[Kentish Man]

16.6C please

[TonyH]

16.6c please

Snap!

[AderynCoch]

Another ramp.

 

18.0

[Aphelion369]

16.1 please!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Estimating the minimum as 11C, and maxima to be a little over 18C, the mean today should be around the mid to high 14s.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET near,

13.6C to the 2nd (12.5)

14.6C to the 3rd (16.7)

15.0C to the 4th (16.2)

15.4C to the 5th (16.8]

15.8C to the 6th (17.9)

16.2C to the 7th (18.8]

16.7C to the 8th (20.2)

Edited July 1, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[SomeLikeItHot]

Met forecasts near the CET measuring locations have it at

 

1st  14.2

2nd 13.8 (13.4)

3rd 14.3 (15.4)

4th  14.8 (16.2)

5th  15.0 (15.8 )

 

Extending this with the GFS 6z ensemble mean to mid month sees it go to something like 16.4 about 0.5 above the 61-90 average to that date.

Edited July 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[seabreeze86]

Sorry a little late. 16.1 please

[Backtrack]

20.1C. Record breaker.

[nbj2013]

Sorry im a day late.

 

I'll go for an above average 16.7C with well below average rainfall in the south (50-60%) and below average rain in the north (80-90%). I also reckon sunshine hours will be above average or well above average (somewhere between 110-140%)

 

Overall, I think the first half will be pleasantly warm or very warm, with one or two bursts of 30C heat in the S and SE. Id also expect lots of sunshine - possibly wall to wall for a time - and little rain (a little possible in N and NW) Then around the middle of the month, something a little cooler (still around average though, warm in the sun) with more cloud and patchy rain. Then i'd say there is a good chance of more above or well above average warmth nearer the final week of the month, and again less rain.

 

I think this month will be a dry one for the gardens, so hose's and cans at the ready

[DAVID SNOW]

20.1C. Record breaker.

That's a bit low for the Central Ethiopian Temperature.

[Paul T]

17.2

 

bit late!

[GRHinPorts]

The really exciting thing for me this month is can the CET break the magic 17 mark. This has only happened once since July 2006 (that being July 2010).

 

I dont play in the competition but a lot of 17.1s and 17.2s have come in in the last few days so I will be cheering on all these guesses.

[Summer Sun]

15.0c to the 1st

[Backtrack]

That's a bit low for the Central Ethiopian Temperature.

 

we'll see who's laughing when you're applauding my Ethiopian temperature guess at the end of the month for being too low. :winky:

[Mark Bayley]

Next weeks warm spell should raise the C.E.T above average, although the nights don't look exceptionally warm, averaging between 9-13c on the GFS. Thereafter there seems no conclusive signals (MJO etc...) as to where this month will go, our first above average month of the year?

[Roger J Smith]

So, I will post my usual table of entries later today, have been away for our four-day long weekend here. But if anyone is already working on a table, let me know so I don't duplicate your effort. This would probably happen about 9-10 pm BST over in the competition thread.

 

(edit 1945h ... so okay now it's there or will be in 5 mins after I calculate the median)

Edited July 3, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[SomeLikeItHot]

14.8 to the 3rd.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.7C while maxima look like climbing over 21C, so an increase to 15.2C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

15.5C to the 5th (16.5)

16.2C to the 6th (19.6)

16.7C to the 7th (19.8]

17.0C to the 8th (19.2)

17.0C to the 9th (17.3)

17.2C to the 10th (18.6)

17.4C to the 11th (19.9)

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

With a min today of 11.7 and average max accross the region of aroud 21, we should see a rise tomorrow to 15.2

 

Using  met forecasts for locations for near the CET measuring locations, for 5 days gives.

 

4th 15.2   (16.4)

5th 15.5   (17)

6th 15.9 (17.6)

7th 16.3 (19.2)

8th   16.7  (19.6)

 

There after using the GFS enemble mean

9th 16.9   (18)

10th  16.8  (16)

 

then daily CETs stay near 17 or slightly above for the remainder of the run, with average staying near 17.0 to the 19th.

[GRHinPorts]

I am forever overscoring the CET as it runs along whatever the time of year but I am really surprised by the scores that both SLitH and BFtheV have quoted. I would have thought the temperatures during the bulk of this forthcoming hot spell would easily run along the lines of 25 Max and 15 Min giving us regular scores in the 20s and bumping the running average well above 17.

 

If the best heatwave in 7 years can only barely scrape us into the 17s (maybe) you can see why it is so difficult to achieve this figure across any month.

[damianslaw]

CET is set to sky rocket over the coming with the first sustained spell of appreciably above average temperatures relative to average since the very start of the year - yes its been that long!

 

After 6 below months on the trot, there is a very good chance July will buck the trend and turn in above average..

 

How many below average months have we had in the last 12 months, at least 9 I think?

 

However, we are a far cry from a July 2006 outlook, and 30 degrees is only likely to be breached in one or two favoured spots.

 

Ground temperatures for this stage in the summer I believe are relatively low, and whilst we will quickly build surface heat, we are not going to import any continental air which is key if we are to expect widespread maxima above 30 degrees. We are starting from a very poor base state for real heat.

 

Still it looks like the best spell of July weather since 2006 and certainly the best spell of summery weather since late May 2012, indeed the synoptics projected are almost a carbon copy of late May 2012 (mmm lets hope what followed doesn't follow this time round!).

 

From a personal perspective this is almost the perfect time of year to see such synoptics, for school children.. a couple of weeks later would be better.

 

This is a pivotal time in the summer season, the northern hemipshere is now settling into its proper summer state, and where the jet decides to position itself now, it normally stays in such position until late August..

 

This year is reminding me of 1996, which saw a very chilly Jan-May period, an average June followed by a quite decent July and August temp wise though nothing exceptional.. it was followed by a very traditional topsy turvy autumn and a crisp cold December..

[Weather-history]

How many below average months have we had in the last 12 months, at least 9 I think? 

Depends on what average you measure against. We have had 10 consecutive months that were below the 1971-2000 average.It took till December 2003, to return the 10th month that was below the 1971-2000 average starting from January 2001. From January 2011 to June 2013, there have been 18 months that were below the 1971-2000 average.From January 2001, it took to August 2007 to record the 18th month below the 1971-2000 average.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I am forever overscoring the CET as it runs along whatever the time of year but I am really surprised by the scores that both SLitH and BFtheV have quoted. I would have thought the temperatures during the bulk of this forthcoming hot spell would easily run along the lines of 25 Max and 15 Min giving us regular scores in the 20s and bumping the running average well above 17.

 

If the best heatwave in 7 years can only barely scrape us into the 17s (maybe) you can see why it is so difficult to achieve this figure across any month.

 

If you are using my estimates, remember if this does turn into the best heatwave in 7 years then they will be underestimates, as the outcome will be better than the ensemble mean. By using the ensemble mean it includes results where the really good weather only lasts for 5-6 days which pull down the average compared with a longer string of 18-20 CET days which are probably the more likely outcome.

 

In BFTV's estimates he's using the operational run, most of the time this is more likely to be close to the actual outcome, but occasionally will be more wrong. The mean will do the reverse. More likely to be further from the outcome but rarely by too much.  

 

To illustrate my point the GFS 0z ensembles for Oxford (as somewhere representative of the CET area).

 

from around the 13th we have a few paths (around 25%) going for something much colder than the bulk of the paths including the operational run. An estimate based on the operational here would give a 75% chance of being close to the mark, and 25% of being quite wrong, where as using the mean will give something wrong in both cases, but not by as much. So its useful as a trend indicator of below or above average trend but will mostly be less extreme than the actual outcome.

Edited July 5, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot