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July 2013 CET Forecasts / Competition


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The CET is only going one way over the next few days in my opinion- there might not be much of a rise today but it should start rising again tomorrow with some real heat coming back into the CET zone.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

If the ECM verifies the mean is likely to be flirting with 18 by about the 23rd-24th and that means another round of Craig Evans beer at the old western corral here.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

17.1 to the 11th

min today of 10.6, and max likely around 24.5 so it should move to 17.2 tomorrow.

Met forecast would put it at

12th 17.2 (17.6)

13th 17.5 (21)

14th 17.7 (20)

15th 17.8 (19.5)

16th 17.9 (19.6)

After that the GFS ensemble mean sees a slight trend down to around 17.7 to the 27th

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth, HANTS, UK

17.1 to the 11thmin today of 10.6, and max likely around 24.5 so it should move to 17.2 tomorrow.Met forecast would put it at12th 17.2 (17.6)13th 17.5 (21)14th 17.7 (20)15th 17.8 (19.5)16th 17.9 (19.6)After that the GFS ensemble mean sees a slight trend down to around 17.7 to the 27th

Is +17 very likely now then?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Is +17 very likely now then?

 

I would say it's odds on yes with the rest of July looking to be warmer than average.  I know we're barely half way through Summer but I wonder if our run of wet Summers has come to an end or will 2013 just be a warm/dry blip during a cool/wet run? A bit like Winters 1990/91 and 1995/96 were cold blips during that long run of generally mild Winters?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Met Office site has 17.25 rounded to 17.2 after 12 days, average of 20 for today through 22nd would boost this to 18.5, 19 for that same period gives 18.0. My estimate would be 18.3 from 19.6 in the period ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

17.5C to the 13th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 21.1C. Today's minimum is 13.6C, while maxima are close to 27C, so we should be on 17.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

 

17.8C to the 15th (19.5)

18.0C to the 16th (20.6)

18.2C to the 17th (21.8]

18.4C to the 18th (21.0)

18.6C to the 19th (21.3)

18.7C to the 20th (20.8]

18.7C to the 21st (20.2)

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Very impressive that despite currently being high in the mid 17s it will still climb further during the coming week. What a way to break the run of below average months.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

My guess of 16.9 is looking a wee bit fragile!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

My guess of 16.9 is looking a wee bit fragile!Posted Image

I went for 14.5C. Impossible for me to come anywhere near the final figure haha. Edited by 22nov10blast
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Met forecasts see it continuing to rise in the coming days

15th 17.7 (18.6)

16th 17.9 (20.3)

17th 18.0 (19.8 )

18th 18.2 (20.3)

19th 18.3 (20.5)

GFS ensemble mean has it maintaining that and then falling after the 24th near the end of the run to 17.8 by the 30th.

I think its safe to say that at this point we are getting a warmer than, any average you care to name, July.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As much as i would love the GFS6z to be correct i suspect the transition is too fast. At day 8 ECWMF, GFS and GEM do all show the high losing control to at least some degree however i suspect that rather than a big flip we will probably transition to a rather slack pattern lending itself to warm, thundery weather as opposed to the dream Scandi Trough.

 

I'd say there's a 60% chance of being 18C+ and anybody going for less than 17.7C after adjustments should just give up now.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Current GFS 12z suggests mean of 20.5 now to 28th which would essentially boost the average to near 19.0, then with the depicted cooler end to month and possible slight downgrade could be finishing in the mid-18s. I'll be cheering this on being sole owner of the 18.4 to 19.0 zone, but Robbie Garrett (19.7, equal 2006) is not out of the running by any means, if the heat builds enough and the end of month cooling scenario is a Fantasy, he could win this thing. Craig Evans (20.0) and Backtrack (20.1) are like 5-1 underdogs at 20 point something and could finish higher than most of the field. The pack just behind me need this heat wave to be interrupted by cloud and maybe a dramatic late cooling, or just the Metoffice saying we can't let that damn foreigner win let's take a whole degree off the CET, or add a whole degree on.

 

(just kidding)

 

(not really)

 

(whatever)

 

Table can be seen in the other thread, annual competition results.

__________________________________________________________________________

 

THIS MESSAGE SPONSORED BY CRAIG EVANS BEER -- IT RISES TO THE TOP EVERY TIME

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

At this rate July will be giving the November 2011 warm anomaly a run for its money.  Also that means 2013 will finally leave 2010 as the only year without an exceptional warm month since 1996.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Well my 17.4C prediction certainly looks to be out of the question now!  What an abrupt change after 6 months of below average temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Possibly a large correction, Phillip Eden was 0.6C lower to the 10th.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This morning's model runs look even hotter and there could be some record-threatening ahead on the daily scale, month could be edging up towards third behind 2006, 1983 and even those aren't totally out of reach at this rate. Some maps around 22nd-24th look like 32-34 C daytime and 23-25 C mean daily.

 

Any concept of an end of month cooldown is very likely to see downgrades.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

This morning's model runs look even hotter and there could be some record-threatening ahead on the daily scale, month could be edging up towards third behind 2006, 1983 and even those aren't totally out of reach at this rate. Some maps around 22nd-24th look like 32-34 C daytime and 23-25 C mean daily.

 

Any concept of an end of month cooldown is very likely to see downgrades.

It looks like July (2006 and 2013) will join April (2011 and 2007), August (1995 and 1997), October (2001 and 2005/2006) and November (1994 and 2011) in achieving their top 2 warmest ever CETs all in a return period of only 2 to 17 years.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

My 20.1C guess is looking pretty good right about now :p

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

My 20.1C guess is looking pretty good right about now Posted Image

For the first time since September 2010 even I could be too low.  When was the last everyone in the competition was too low?

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

17.8C to the 15th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 18.8C. Today's minimum is 12.5C while maxima look like reaching around 28C, so an increase to 17.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

It looks like July (2006 and 2013) will join April (2011 and 2007), August (1995 and 1997), October (2001 and 2005/2006) and November (1994 and 2011) in achieving their top 2 warmest ever CETs all in a return period of only 2 to 17 years.

I think top 2 is unlikely.at day 15 the CET average is at 17.8, to get into he top 2 the last 16 days need to average greater than 21.2 to beat 1983 with an average of 19.5) - and that is before corrections. The warmest 16 day period in 2006 (also the last 16 days) averaged 21.0. I think we aren't likley to get anything that warm. So far we haven't had a single day that warm.More likely it seems the month will either come in 3rd -10th (19.4-18.3) - or possibly below if there is a turn around in the last week. A continution of broadly the same conditions we've had since th 6th of July would give a 18.4 average for the month. If we think the last part will be 1 degree warmer than that then we'll end at 18.9.Edit: Actually not greater than 21.2, but equal or greater than 21.2 Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

17.8C to the 15th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 18.8C. Today's minimum is 12.5C while maxima look like reaching around 28C, so an increase to 17.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

Based on Met forecasts I see it at.

16th 17.9 (19.5)

17th 18.0 (20.5)

18th 18.2 (20.8 )

19th 18.3 (21)

20th 18.4 (19.75)

GFS 6z ensemble mean would see it rising slightly further to around 18.5 on the 24-25th before falling back slightly at the end of the month to 18.1-18.2.

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